Abivax’s stock surged to become a prime biotech takeover target

Europe’s best-performing blue-chip stock in 2025 is widely expected to be bought by a larger peer, in a deal analysts say could be worth as much as $23 billion.

Abivax, the French clinical-stage biotech company developing a treatment for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, saw shares rocket 1,681% last year, far outpacing the Stoxx 600 index’s second-best performing stock, mining company Fresnillo, which rose 453%.

Now, the big question for analysts seems to be when, not if, Abivax announces a deal.

The stock, listed in 2015, largely ranged between 10 and 20 euros but it wasn’t until 10 years later that it really took off. Shares surged 510% in a day after Abivax reported the results of a late-stage trial for an ulcerative colitis medicine in July, beating even the most optimistic expectations. After these kinds of results, it could be a strategic acquisition for any large pharmaceutical company with an immunology and inflammation franchise.

Abivax‘s lead – and only – asset, obefazimod, was first developed as a treatment for HIV, but researchers discovered that its anti-inflammatory effect could affect other conditions like inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and began clinical trials.

Shares were boosted even more in December as rumors emerged that the world’s most valuable pharma company, Eli Lilly, had its eyes set on acquiring Abivax. Both companies have repeatedly declined to comment on business development activities.

An imminent deal?

Analysts say that a deal could happen any time now.

Van Lanschot Kempen analyst Sebastiaan van der Schoot told CNBC that biotechs often “have a relatively small number of employees and don’t have any experience with selling a drug,” which he called “a completely different ball game” to developing them.

“That’s why pharma takes them out to actually leverage their infrastructure,” he said.

The analyst added that he expected Abivax to trade between where it is now and where it was when rumors of a takeover first surfaced, until the annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference on Monday, where companies often announce large deals.

It comes as Big Pharma has ramped up dealmaking in recent months, as the sector faces a looming patent cliff where some of the world’s best-selling drugs lose exclusivity in the coming years.

Another factor making a deal likelier is Abivax CEO Marc de Garidel‘s reputation as a leader who can make deals happen. He previously led multi-billion dollar buyouts of biotech firms to pharma players like AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.

Asked about a potential acquisition, de Garidel told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” in December that the company was always in “conversation with Big Pharma” but that its role was to develop the best possible drug.

Abivax is planning to file for regulatory approval in the U.S. by the end of 2026, eyeing a potential launch by the third quarter of 2027, de Garidel said.

The company is…