David Ellison Paramount Warner Bros 30 film releases

Paramount CEO David Ellison is trying to do something that no other studio has done in the modern age of cinema — release 30 films annually.

Ellison once again promised this theatrical feat in front of thousands of exhibitors at CinemaCon earlier this month. Applause erupted from the crowd after he made the pronouncement.

But privately, movie theater operators have expressed concerns and skepticism about the proposed future slate of films. While a massive string of releases would help cinemas, companies doubt he will be able to follow through on the promise.

His 30-film plan would hinge on Paramount receiving regulatory approval for its proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, which the latter company’s shareholders approved last week. Ellison noted that each studio would produce 15 films a year.

However, Ellison has not provided many details about those 30 releases, and it’s not clear how he would hit the ambitious goal. Representatives for Paramount did not reply to CNBC’s request for comment.

It’s unclear if all of the films would have wide releases (meaning they eventually play in at least 1,500 theaters, though the typical benchmark is 2,000). It’s also not certain whether the company will count films it distributes but doesn’t produce as part of this figure, or how many of those proposed titles will be considered tentpole blockbusters.

Movie theater operators and industry experts are skeptical that Paramount would be able to sustain a 30-film slate after the initial merger. After all, part of the consolidation process is eliminating redundancies, which inevitably leads to layoffs as well as cost-cutting measures that often result in fewer productions.

“When it comes to traditional brand-new wide release films, 30 movies a year is a lofty plan given that most distributors are releasing on average anywhere from 10 to 15 wide releases each year,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.

In fact, in the last 25 years, no studio has released 30 films in a single year. The combination of 20th Century Fox and Searchlight came close in 2006 when the studios had 25 wide releases, according to data from Comscore.

The data also show that when studios have merged in the past, the result has been fewer theatrical releases, not more.

Prior to acquiring 21st Century Fox and its studio assets, Disney was averaging 12 films a year dating back to 2000. Meanwhile, the combined efforts of 20th Century Fox and Searchlight averaged 16 films during that same time. Not including 2020, in which theatrical releases were impacted by pandemic-related cinema closures, Disney has averaged around 13 films a year following the 2019 merger.

The line chart shows the annual film releases by Disney and 20th Century between 2000 and 2019…