Iran, Oman in talks on Hormuz; SpaceX/Nvidia loyalty

Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

The Dow just notched another record high, as Wall Street bets that the five-month war in the Middle East is finally winding down.

Just note the fine print: an agreement that hands Tehran more control of the strait isn’t the same as the one Washington set out to get.

The AI trade, meanwhile, is discovering that allegiance may matter more than earnings — AMD posted robust results and still watched its shares slide, after Elon Musk said SpaceX would build its AI infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia chips.

Stock futures inched higher after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record high and its fifth positive day in a row, while the S&P 500 pulled back, snapping a four-day win streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped less than 1%.

Behind the blue-chip run: signs that Iran and Oman are nearing the final stages of drafting an agreement on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — one that would give Tehran more control over vessels passing through the vital oil route, according to Reuters.

President Donald Trump said a U.S. deal to reopen the strait “could happen” as soon as Wednesday or Thursday, extending a deadline Treasury Scott Bessent had floated just a day earlier, when he said an agreement could land Tuesday or Wednesday.

Both Brent and WTI crude futures slipped as the administration’s optimism spread through markets.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she’s “prepared to act” on a rate hike: “Inflation is too high, and I consider the risks to the inflation side of the dual mandate higher than the risks to the employment side at this point,” she said in Anchorage, Alaska.

With five years of above-target inflation, she said, the risk grows that higher inflation becomes entrenched. Traders are now pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike in the central bank’s September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

SpaceX shares sank 13.6% after a surge in AI spending rattled investors and clouded an otherwise expectation-beating quarter. Capital expenditures jumped sixfold to $18.4 billion, with the majority going toward AI. Musk tried to allay fears, saying SpaceX would hit $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a year earlier than previously forecast.

Musk’s pledge that SpaceX would only use Nvidia processors for its AI infrastructure sent the chipmaker’s shares up more than 3%. “We’re exclusive to Nvidia,” he said.

AMD was on the other side of that trade. CEO Lisa Su brushed off the snub — “I have tremendous respect for Elon… we look forward to continuing to partner over the longer term” — but AMD’s stock closed 7% lower despite strong second-quarter earnings and guidance for data center growth…