Agriculture Market Update: Q3 2025 in Review

By Finance News On Nov 9, 2025

Fertilizer prices remained elevated in Q3 compared to both the first half of the year and the end of 2024.

Potash prices surged at the start of the year as the Trump administration threatened tariffs on Canada, the top supplier to US farmers. During the third quarter, prices were 20 percent higher than at the end of last year.

Meanwhile, phosphate prices continued to climb through Q3 on the back of supply shortages, spurred by export restrictions from top producer China. Prices were further influenced by US tariffs.

What happened to phosphate and potash prices in Q3?

According to data from the World Bank, the average quarterly phosphate price rose to US$770.60 per metric ton (MT), up from US$673.20 in Q2, and significantly higher than the annual average of US$563.70 in 2024.

On a monthly basis, phosphate climbed to US$736 in July, then climbed to a three year high of US$795.10 in August. Since then, the price has fallen to US$780.63 in September and US$754 in October.

The quarterly average for potash fell slightly in Q3 to US$352.20 per MT, down from US$359.20 the previous quarter, but remained higher than US$283.90 in the last quarter of 2024.

On a monthly basis, potash prices eased to US$362.50 in July, and continued to fall to US$356.50 in August. They sank further to US$352.50 in September and US$352 in October.

What factors impacted phosphate in Q3?

Phosphate prices have been primarily influenced over the last several years by export restrictions from China, which have declined to 6.6 million MT in 2024 from 9 million MT in 2021. The restrictions were put in place to protect the domestic supply, and while the hope was that they would eventually ease, that hasn’t happened.

In an April article, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, said exports of phosphate totaled 13,000 MT during Q1 of this year, a staggering decrease from 950,000 MT during the same period of 2022. When asked by the Investing News Network at the end of October if he sees any changes on the horizon, Linville wasn’t hopeful.

“As expected, their exports started to arrive in July to September; however, the government had a self-imposed October 15 cutoff date for export submission. That date came and went without an extension, so now the belief is their flows will slow to a crawl very soon,” he said. The situation may face additional headwinds, as China has imposed more restrictions on key battery technologies and precursors for phosphate-based batteries. These restrictions will add to demand for ex-China supply as the agricultural sector competes with battery makers for a limited supply of phosphate.

Demand for phosphate is also high, particularly from India, which has been working to increase its stockpiles since the end of 2024, when they reached a low of 1.1 million MT. However, stockpiles had more than doubled to 2.4 million MT at the start of October, with…