Brien Lundin: Rising Debt and Currency Risks Could Drive Gold Higher

Brien Lundin says rising government debt and weaker currencies could help keep gold prices high over the long term, even as the market faces short-term ups and downs.

Speaking at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Lundin, the editor of Gold Newsletter, said that although gold and silver have fallen back to prices seen about a year ago, the reasons driving their long-term rise remain in place.

Central banks stepped up their gold purchases in 2022, buying 1,136 metric tons. The increase followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, followed by several countries freezing Russian central bank assets held overseas, which raised concerns about the security of foreign currency reserves.

Lundin said the move highlighted growing concerns about the use of the US dollar and the global financial system as geopolitical tools. He said central banks have continued buying gold through price fluctuations, viewing it as a strategic reserve asset.

Recent World Gold Council (WGC) data show that central bank demand remains strong.

Central banks and other official institutions added 321 metric tons of gold to their reserves in the third quarter of 2026, a 42 percent increase from the same period last year. This brought net purchases for the first nine months of the year to 675 metric tons, up 6 percent year-on-year.

In his presentation, Lundin said the World Gold Council estimated central banks and other official institutions bought 244 metric tons of gold in the first quarter of 2025. Much of the estimated buying was not reflected in official reports, and was later revised to 237 metric tons.

Lundin pointed to other institutional buyers as well, including stablecoin issuer Tether, which he said held about 125 metric tons of gold as of the end of the first quarter. He argued that sovereigns and large institutions helped drive gold higher before Western investors joined the rally.

He attributed the more recent market correction to several factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair and concerns about the war involving Iran.

Lundin said the nomination gave investors a reason to reassess the outlook for monetary policy, while the conflict added uncertainty around energy prices, inflation and government spending.