5 things to watch on Election Day as Democrats push to control Congress

Voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide control of Congress in a midterm election that could have major implications for the remainder of President Donald Trump‘s term in office.

Republicans are defending House and Senate majorities amid the public’s frustration over high consumer prices, an enduring war with Iran, the perception of corruption in the government and an immigration crackdown that has swept up American citizens and people in the country legally.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump’s persistently low approval ratings and are widely projected to take back the U.S. House, potentially making House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the first Black speaker of the House in U.S. history.

The Senate outlook is hazier, but Democrats have surged late, making races competitive in states that until recently seemed out of reach.

The results of Tuesday’s election could shift power in Washington and have a profound effect on Trump’s final two years in the White House. Here’s what to watch:

1) Will Republican gerrymanders hold?

At Trump’s urging, several Republican-led state legislatures began the uncommon process of mid-decade redistricting in 2025, and over the course of 2025 and 2026, redrew their congressional districts to make formerly Democratic districts more winnable.

Democrats responded, setting off a redistricting arms race that — along with the April Supreme Court decision that weakened a key section of the Voting Rights Act, endangering majority-Black districts in the South — gave Republicans an edge on paper heading into the midterms.

But victory in those redrawn districts is far from certain, and, in states including Texas and Florida, many of those seats are up for grabs. 

In those two states alone, Republicans redrew nine seats to make them more heavily Republican. But according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Republicans are favored to win in just three of those. 

“The Republican dummy-manders in places like Texas and Florida are falling apart,” Jeffries told CNN on Oct. 26. “There’s no circumstance where Republicans are gaining five seats in Texas. And no circumstance where they’re netting four seats in Florida.” 

The strategy, particularly in Texas, relied in part on Latino and Hispanic voters, who shifted to the right in 2024 but have more recently shown signs of cooling on the GOP, at least in this election.

An Oct. 16 Pew Research Center survey found that 51% of registered Hispanic voters preferred Democratic candidates in 2026, compared with 24% who said they preferred Republicans.

2) States previously thought out of reach now in play

Democrats weren’t expected to compete in states including Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina, but Trump backlash has put their Senate races in play.

Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, is in a fight to keep his seat against Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton in a race the Cook Report shifted to a “toss up” on Oct. 6. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator since…