Who could replace Lagarde as European Central Bank President?
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), during a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, June 11, 2026.
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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on Feb. 7 next year, she announced Thursday, formally kicking off a succession race that will be shaped by political bargaining and France’s looming fiscal crisis.
Lagarde has led the central bank since July 2019, steering its responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and a series of energy price shocks that sent inflation in the European Union above 11% in 2022.
She will depart nearly nine months before her term was due to expire in October 2027, while the process to appoint her successor will begin immediately.
How is the Presidency decided?
Senior ECB figures are already in talks to fill other senior roles, with chief economist Philip Lane and executive board member Isabel Schnabel also due to step down next year.
The ECB is institutionally independent, and its Governing Council comprises the six-member Executive Board and the governors of the 21 euro-area national central banks, whose voting rights rotate.
But appointments to its top jobs are made by euro area governments, with negotiations generally reflecting political bargaining over national representation and influence.
Klaas Knot, president of De Nederlandsche Bank NV, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Gandhinagar, India, on Tuesday, July 18, 2023.
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Former head of the Netherlands central bank, Klaas Knot, and former head of Spain’s central bank, Pablo Hernández de Cos, are widely regarded as top contenders to replace Lagarde.
“Both are excellent candidates,” ING’s global head of macro, Carsten Brzeski told CNBC by email on Thursday.
“Nationality will also matter. While Knot might find more support among Northern European governments, the question is whether De Cos will be supported by the current Spanish government.”
“In any case, both would bring a high level of monetary policy expertise to the table. Something that Christine Lagarde had to pick up on when already in office.”
Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding said that as well as the usual issues of monetary policy competence and regional balance, the ECB would need to consider who could deal with potential financial turbulence amid widening spreads in bond yields between member states.
Market participants are debating whether the ECB could be forced to use one of its intervention mechanisms as France faces a mounting sovereign debt crisis, with further uncertainty ahead due to next year’s election.
“As a former chair of the G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB), Knot may have an edge in this respect,” Schmieding said in a note.
“The European Union is trying to guard itself at least somewhat against the risk that right-wing Marine Le Pen may win the French…
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