Crypto enters September with policy gamble hanging by a thread

The crypto industry heads into September with its biggest legislative bet hanging in the balance, and little confidence the proposed bill will make it past the finish line.

The looming vote on the crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act is shaping up as a critical test for an industry that’s spent years pushing Washington for clearer rules around digital assets. The bill would establish a framework for crypto, divide oversight between the Securities Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, set registration requirements and strengthen anti-money-laundering protections.

But despite efforts by crypto executives and President Donald Trump to excite investors and industry watchers about the possibility that the bill could become law this year, the mood is less optimistic among industry participants.

Many are resigned that the Clarity Act is dead in 2026.

“I personally am a bit pessimistic about the Clarity Act being passed,” John Darsie, CEO of SALT, told CNBC at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole in August. “Leading into the midterms, you don’t often pass legislation of this magnitude.” SALT calls itself an investment and networking platform and leadership forum.

Missed window

The Clarity Act missed sponsors’ legislative window when the Senate adjourned for its August recess without voting on the bill. Now, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a key procedural vote for Sept. 15, after the Senate returns from its recess, potentially paving the way for a full floor vote.

Unresolved issues include stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions tied to President Trump and his family’s crypto interests. Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, one of only two Democrats voting to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee, has been working on a bipartisan compromise regarding ethics language for the Clarity Act. There is still a chance for the bill to advance in the Senate, but Republicans and Democrats need to find consensus, Gallego said.

“The way to get 60 votes is with good ethics legislation as well as rounding out some of the things that are still outstanding,” Gallego said during a fireside chat at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium last month.

The possible demise of Clarity stands in stark relief to the historic sums committed in the 2024 election cycle to shifting Washington’s position on crypto. Crypto-backed political groups spent more than $200 million, helping elect candidates friendly to the industry and making crypto regulation a mainstream issue.

Deregulation bet

The bet was straightforward: a Trump victory and a more crypto-friendly Washington could replace years of regulatory hostility.

Viewed from a narrow lens, the investment is already paying off, even if Clarity dies. The SEC and CFTC are more accommodating to crypto under Trump, while other regulators – including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a key banking regulator – have also moved toward a looser framework for…