GOP eyes states to redraw House maps
Demonstrators opposed to redrawing Florida’s Congressional map hold signs outside the Florida State Capitol in Tallahassee, Florida, US, on Tuesday, April 28, 2026.
Malcolm Jackson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Tennessee’s Republican Gov. Bill Lee on Thursday signed into law a just-approved measure to eliminate the state’s lone Democrat-held congressional seat. It’s the latest move in a scramble to redraw U.S. House districts in the wake of a pivotal Supreme Court decision and ahead of the 2026 midterm election.
The maps are “insane,” according to Rep. Steve Cohen, the Memphis Democrat who holds the seat Republicans are targeting. In a post to X on Wednesday as a special session of the state legislature kicked off, Cohen said the proposal would jam people living more than 200 miles apart into the same district.
President Donald “Trump knows he HAS TO rig the game to keep his majority in November,” Cohen posted on X after the law was signed after earlier calling the effort a “power grab.” “And the TN GOP was willing to go along with it.” He also threatened to sue.
Power grab or not, redrawn maps like the one in Tennessee could be the key to keeping a majority in the House. And in the redistricting race to the bottom, neither party appears willing to take its foot off the gas.
The Supreme Court‘s April 29 decision in Louisiana v. Callais to weaken part of the Voting Rights Act invalidated a majority-black, Democrat-held district in Louisiana and paved the way for states across the South to redraw their own congressional maps. In addition to Louisiana and Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina have already taken steps to do so.
State Senator London Lamar, a Democrat from Tennessee, holds a copy of the proposed Congressional map for Tennessee during a special legislative session at the Tennessee State Capitol in Nashville, Tennessee, US, on Wednesday, May 6, 2026.
Madison Thorn | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Republicans face an uphill climb to hold their majority, as they struggle under the weight of President Donald Trump‘s sinking approval ratings, the ongoing Iran war and rising gas prices. But they’re striking a more optimistic tone of late.
“You have one or two seats in each of those states — that’s huge,” one Republican operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “When you have a three-seat majority, every single seat matters.”
“There’s certainly a path. I think with [the Callais decision] happening, that path gets even brighter for us,” the operative said.
Could Democrats still take the House majority?
Even after the Supreme Court’s decision and other earlier redistricting efforts — like those in Texas and Florida, which could each net Republicans several seats — Democrats are widely viewed as the favorites to win the House majority later this year.
VoteHub, an independent political outlet that offers election analysis, gave Democrats an 85% chance of winning the House in a forecast published May 4, after the Callais…
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