Gold and silver’s historic rally could resume ‘as fog of war lifts’

The rally that propelled gold and silver to record-breaking highs in 2025 could pick up again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC as prices ticked higher on Thursday.

Spot gold jumped 1.2% to $4,750 per ounce early on Thursday, amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran could be nearing a deal to bring the 69-day war to an end.

Gold and silver both enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135%, respectively, over the course of the year. However, they have seen much more volatile trade in 2026, with silver futures suffering their biggest single-day blow since the 1980s at the end of January and gold knocking more 10% off its January peak.

Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, gold’s reputation as a “safe haven” asset in times of turmoil has come under pressure as some of the drivers behind its ascendance have been called into question.

The potential for higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar resulting from a surge in oil prices, and traders exiting positions all contributed to its recent decline, particularly as the yellow metal entered the conflict “significantly overbought”, according to Ross Norman, CEO of precious metals website Metals Daily.

This gave dealers a reason to take profit and for the market to consolidate as traders sold up their best-performing asset, he told CNBC.

Francis Tan, chief Asia strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, described this property as “pretty useful” during March’s market tumult in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

“If you look at March, when equities were selling, for an investor with some allocation in gold during that period, you were sitting on pretty strong returns in gold, and you could perhaps take some off the table to cover some of your equity losses.

“So gold as a safe haven certainly has played its part.”

During the course of the conflict, gold traded inversely to both oil prices and the U.S. dollar.

“The dollar and gold both rallied, the former seeing hot money flows as energy supplies choked, while the dollar gained on safe haven flows,” Norman added. “A peace deal would suggest those tailwinds ease off and we are seeing that just now. It’s as if the handbrake has been released from gold and silver.”