Trump’s Hormuz gambit lands with a whimper

Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Sometimes, actions produce the opposite of the desired outcome. Washington’s attempt to assert control over the Iran conflict, whether through oil diplomacy or tough talk, has had the opposite effect. Instead of calming markets, they have highlighted just how little has been resolved.

Peace talks are stalling. Shipping lanes remain choked. And even a modest OPEC+ output hike landed with a shrug.

Markets, for now, appear to have made their peace with the stalemate. S&P 500 futures edged higher while oil barely moved. But the relative calm may prove fragile as the week unfolds.

Seven OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June, the third consecutive ​monthly increase. But with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the real-world impact is likely limited. The meeting was also the cartel’s first since the United Arab Emirates’ shock exit from the group last week.

Oil prices ticked down modestly, while S&P 500 futures rose slightly on Sunday as investors reacted to continued uncertainty surrounding progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran. The international benchmark Brent crude prices slipped less than 1% to about $107 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged lower to around $101 per barrel.

The U.S. will begin freeing ships stranded in the Strait on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Sunday, describing the effort as a “humanitarian gesture” for neutral countries not involved in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The president offered scant details about how the process would unfold.

Hours earlier, Tehran confirmed that it had received a U.S. response to its 14-point peace offer. Trump said over the weekend he had yet to review the exact wording of the Iranian peace proposal but was likely to reject it because “they have not paid a big enough price.”

Iranian state media quoted Foreign Ministry Esmaeil Baghaei as saying that nuclear talks are off the table until a ceasefire is reached and blockades in the vital energy artery are lifted on both sides.

Amid prolonged disruption to the Gulf oil flows, U.S. oil exports surged to a record high, shipping 5.2 million barrels per day in April, up more than 30% from February, according to Kpler.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said energy prices, which have surged since the war started in late February, are likely to ease later this year.

“Oil prices on the other side of this conflict are going to be much…