Gold’s Next Test: WGC Lists 3 Potential Price Scenarios in 2026 Outlook
Investors should brace for continued economic uncertainty and financial market volatility in 2026, the World Gold Council (WGC) warns in its 2026 outlook — and those circumstances could have various effects on gold.
After a blistering 2025 that has so far seen the yellow metal hit more than 50 all-time highs and rise over 60 percent, the WGC says 2026 could deliver anything from a modest rally to a steep pullback.
The year was a contest between bullish forces tied to slowing global growth and persistent political instability, and bearish pressures that could emerge if the Trump administration successfully lifts US economic performance.
For now, the WGC says the gold price “broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations,” suggesting it could remain rangebound, although factors like softer growth and geopolitical turmoil are likely to provide support.
Read on for the WGC’s 2025 takeaways and its gold outlook for 2026.
2025: A year that redefined gold’s appeal
2025 is shaping up to be gold’s fourth strongest year since 1971, when the gold standard ended.
The WGC notes in its report that investment demand has accelerated across major regions, and central banks have also continued to add to reserves at levels far above historical averages.
Its long-term performance has caught even more attention. New market data shows gold has climbed 953.78 percent over the last three decades, surpassing the S&P 500’s (INDEXSP:.INX) 918.15 percent gain over the same period.
The symbolic victory is fueling renewed interest from investors who once dismissed bullion.
The case for strategic exposure has been reinforced by the metal’s resilience during market stress. Gold saw powerful rallies after the dot-com crash and again during the 2008 financial crisis. It smashed records in 2011, and now in 2025 it is trading near US$4,238 per ounce heading into the end of the year.
3 potential paths for gold in 2026
The WGC’s outlook sets out three primary macroeconomic paths that gold could follow next year: a moderate slowdown, a deep global downturn or a reflationary growth outcome tied to US policy success.
Scenario 1: A shallow slip, moderately bullish for gold
If economic momentum cools — particularly in the US labor market — without collapsing outright, investors may rotate further into defensive assets. A pullback in artificial intelligence stocks could intensify market volatility, while softer consumer activity would put more pressure on policymakers to continue loosening monetary settings.
In this environment, the WGC says gold could gain 5 to 15 percent. Lower rates and a softer dollar would help, as would ongoing central bank buying and potential new flows from large institutional investors in Asia.
Scenario 2: The “doom loop,” strongly bullish for gold
A darker outcome is also on the table: a synchronized global downturn triggered by escalating…
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