The strange times of missiles-led ‘peace’

It’s a strange thought that launching attacks on other countries could lead to peace, but that seems to be the logic behind the abrupt escalation in conflict in the Middle East beginning Saturday. And now there’s talk of a ceasefire soon.

Here’s a quick recap.  

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump authorized air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, pushing America into Israel’s war with Tehran.

On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.”

On Monday, Iran launched a retaliatory strike against America, targeting a U.S. military base in Qatar.

And on Monday evening stateside, Trump announced a ceasefire.

Trump said on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” that will, in effect mark “an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR” — which began when Israel attacked Iran on June 12.

There are signs this isn’t the usual empty rhetoric. Iran gave the U.S. “early notice” of its attack on the military base in Qatar, according to Trump. It was a “retaliation that was expected,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said.

Qatar also received advanced warning from Iran, according to The New York Times, which cited three Iranian officials familiar with the matter. Iran’s national security council said its missile strike “posed no threat whatsoever to our friendly and brotherly nation, Qatar, or its honorable people.”

This, essentially, is “the peace through strength strategy,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.

In other words, there’s a small chance tensions in the Middle East might cool down following a carefully calibrated and symbolic exchange of strikes that projects strength from all parties, while also providing Iran an off-ramp to de-escalate tension.

Judging by the U.S. stock and oil markets — which rose and fell, respectively — investors are indeed hopeful the strategy of missile-led peace would work.

Trump announces an Israel-Iran ceasefire
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” that will begin around midnight Tuesday stateside. However, neither Iran nor Israel has publicly confirmed they have accepted Trump’s ceasefire timeline. Read CNBC’s live coverage of the latest developments on the Israel-Iran war here.

Iran strikes U.S. military base in Qatar
Iran on Monday launched what its armed forces called a “powerful and destructive missile strike on the United States’ Al-Udeid military base in Qatar.” The Al-Udeid Air Base is the largest American military installation in the Middle East, with around 10,000 service members. Qatar’s Defense Ministry said its air defense had