The world’s energy system will change in big ways as a result of the Iran war, the CEOs of key oil and gas companies told investors on their earnings calls over the past two weeks.

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the loss of nearly a billion barrels of oil, with the shortage growing worse every day the sea lane remains closed.

The disruption has demonstrated the fragility of the global energy system, said Olivier Le Peuch, CEO of the big oilfield services company SLB.

“It’s going to drive fundamental structural change across the energy landscape,” said Lorenzo Simonelli, the CEO of Baker Hughes, a competitor of SLB.

Governments and industry will prioritize energy security, Le Peuch and Simonelli said. It is “no longer simply a talking point,” said Jeffrey Miller, the CEO of Halliburton, the other big oilfield services firm.

Investment in oil exploration and production will increase as a consequence, the CEOs said. Low carbon solutions like geothermal, nuclear and grid modernization will continue to see investment, Simonelli said.

“It’s not just about increasing energy supply,” the Baker Hughes CEO said. “It’s about the robust and resilient energy infrastructure and greater redundancy, diversifying infrastructure, reducing reliance on any single large-scale assets.”

Diversifying supplies

The closure of Hormuz has underscored the dependence particularly of Asian economies on the Middle East for crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports.

“Obviously, people are going to reassess their energy security and how they ensure that, going forward, they don’t have the same exposure,” Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said.

Governments will aim to diversify their energy supplies, the oilfield service CEOs said. They will also have to rebuild oil stockpiles that have taken a hit due to the war, the executives said.

“There’s going to be a rebuilding of global inventories above historical levels to ensure that energy security is at the foremost,” Simonelli said.

U.S. crude oil will become more important that it has ever been in helping the world preserve energy security, said Kaes Van’t Hof, the CEO of Diamondback Energy, one of the biggest U.S. shale oil producers. U.S. crude exports have hit record highs during the war.

The oil market is now “fundamentally tighter” due to supply disruption, Miller said. The market has shifted from expectations of a surplus this year to a big deficit, he said.

This will support elevated oil prices after the war is over, Le Peuch said. Higher prices will encourage investment in offshore and deepwater opportunities in Africa, the Americas and Asia, he said.

“Africa [represents] one of the most compelling long-term opportunities, with a significant base of underdeveloped oil and gas resources,” the CEO of SLB said. “We expect portfolio allocation to shift more favorably towards this region over time.”

The Iran war is starting to show up in the U.S. economy in ways both obvious and not so much, with soaring energy costs leading the impact and potential hits on broader growth simmering beneath the surface.

Though recession fears have grown since the fighting began more than six weeks ago, most economists think the war will have only modest effects on gross domestic product — maybe shaving off a few tenths of a percentage point overall.

But there’s an important caveat, mainly around duration: Should the current ceasefire hold, inflationary impacts will wear off. If fighting resumes, however, the future becomes much murkier, threatening the fragile growth the economy has seen over the past two quarters.

“It’s going to gouge out some of the growth, but we’ll weather through it,” said Mike Skordeles, head of U.S. economics at Truist Advisory Services. “The bigger issue is the uncertainty.”

Indeed, uncertainty has hung over the U.S. economy for most the past year, ever since President Donald Trump unveiled his “liberation day” tariffs in early April 2025 and continuing through what has become an increasingly muscular and aggressive foreign policy.

The war has intensified the pressure, resulting in a host of questions: whether the inflation surge during the war is temporary, how much conditions will affect the consumers who drive most U.S. economic growth, and the extent to which less energy-independent nations are hurt by the war fallout.

Underlining all of it is how the Federal Reserve and other central banks will respond.

“Iran’s important. The price of crude oil is important. Other things matter more. Incomes and other things are continuing to hang in there,” Skordeles said. “The other piece of that uncertainty is by the Fed that’s delaying — and I think it’s delaying, not canceling — any sort of additional cuts, pushing them into the back half or even later in the year. That means you’re elevating borrowing costs for consumers.”

Suffering at the pump

High rates come at a bad time with prices at the pump — most recently at national average $4.10 a gallon, according to AAA — already hitting consumers. A spike in mortgage rates also helped drive existing home sales in March to their lowest in nine months.

Still, debit and credit card spending surged 4.3% in March, the most in more than three years, according to Bank of America.

That was powered by a 16.5% jump in spending at gas stations. But there also was “healthy growth” of 3.6% excluding gas, the bank said, indicating that wallets were still resilient enough to handle the increase.

One factor expected to help sustain consumers is bigger tax refund checks following changes made in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The average refund this year has been $3,521, an 11.1% increase over the same period in 2025, according to IRS data.

Higher…

Monica Virga, a 38-year-old entrepreneur based in Norway, found it unsettling to go from a period of working 20 hours a day to almost zero while on holiday, she said.

“I would… end up popping into my emails again and checking up on things with work that I didn’t need to be in,” she said. “I would end up coming home realizing I didn’t even feel like I went on a vacation because I was doing all these unhealthy kind of habits.”

But now, that’s changed.

Ahead of a trip to Morocco in October two years ago, Virga began her preparation.

“At the end of August, I started doing a little extra work once a week for a couple hours,” she said. She also packs her belongings three to four weeks in advance to avoid last-minute stress.

Her approach echoes advice from American psychologist, Guy Winch, a member of the American Psychological Association, who told CNBC Travel that planning ahead is key. He shared three tips to fully rest and recharge on holidays.

When the Fed hiked rates in 2022 and 2023, the interest rates on most consumer loans quickly followed suit. Even though the central bank lowered its benchmark rate three times in 2024, those consumer rates are still elevated, and are mostly staying high, for now.

1. Credit cards

Many credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

With a rate cut likely postponed until July, the average credit card annual percentage rate has stayed just over 20% this year, according to Bankrate — not far from 2024’s all-time high. Last year, banks raised credit card interest rates to record levels and some issuers said they are keeping those higher rates in place.

At the same time, “more people are carrying debt because of higher prices,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. Total credit card debt and average balances are also at record highs.

2. Mortgages

Mortgage rates don’t directly track the Fed, but are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy. As a result, uncertainty over tariffs and worries about a possible recession are dragging those rates down slightly.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 6.91% as of May 6, while the 15-year, fixed-rate is 6.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily. 

Mortgage rates “are showing signs of life after a slow couple of years,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. 

But for potential home buyers, that’s not enough of a decline to give the housing market a boost. “Many borrowers are reluctant to take on a loan at today’s rates, particularly if they currently have a loan at a significantly lower rate,” Raneri said.

3. Auto loans

Auto loan rates are tied to several factors, but the Fed is one of the most significant.

With the Fed’s benchmark holding steady, the average rate on a five-year new car loan was 7.1% in April, while the average auto loan rate for used cars is 10.9%, according to Edmunds. At the end of 2024, those rates were 6.6% and 10.8%, respectively.

With interest rates near historic highs and car prices rising — along with pressure from Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles — new-car shoppers are facing bigger monthly payments and an affordability crunch, according to Joseph Yoon, Edmunds’ consumer insights analyst.

“Consumers continue to face a challenging market, now with added uncertainty of the tariff impact on their next vehicle purchase,” Yoon said. “Prices and interest rates remain elevated, and there’s no fast or easy answer as to how the tariffs will affect inventory levels — and therefore pricing — as buyers try to make sense of an increasingly complex shopping journey.” 

4. Student loans

Federal student loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan, so most…