Global markets have shrugged off a barrage of shocks in recent years, but HSBC sees several developments that could eventually end that streak.

The key risks include higher corporate taxes, a renewed rise in private-sector debt and a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds. A withdrawal of perceived central-bank support for markets could also test that resilience, the bank said in a note Monday.

While the “removal of central bank puts” could have an adverse impact, HSBC said, such a scenario is difficult to imagine, particularly in the U.S. where equities, wealth effects and financial conditions have become quite intertwined.

Given the outsized weight of the U.S. in global equities and credit, the greatest risks lie there, HSBC said. Higher corporate taxes that squeeze profitability could weigh on markets, while inflation falling close to or below target could restore the negative stock-bond correlation — rise in bond prices when stocks fall.

That, in turn, could encourage investors to reduce equity allocations and put pressure on valuations.

A renewed rise in private-sector leverage could also make the economy and markets more vulnerable to shocks, although HSBC noted that it is at multi-decade lows.

The risks stand out because markets have proven remarkably resilient to bad news in recent years, from surging inflation and tariffs to geopolitical conflicts, the unwinding of carry trades and private-credit concerns.

“It seems as if risk assets continue to ignore every negative catalyst,” HSBC strategists wrote.

The strategists described markets as “Teflon,” arguing that risk assets have remained remarkably resilient despite a long list of potential negative triggers over the past five years.

Deutsche Bank has also questioned how long that endurance can last. The bank said in a report Monday that risk assets have remained “consistently resilient” despite rising real rates and mounting inflation pressures, helped by surprisingly strong global growth.

“The current equilibrium is unsustainable … Risk assets like equities and credit are still strikingly complacent against the stagflationary shock that’s increasingly being priced into rates markets,” Deutsche Bank said.

Rates markets are still pricing only limited central-bank tightening despite mounting inflation pressures, while equities and credit are assuming higher yields will not materially damage growth, it said.

Behind market’s resilience

One key factor is the strength of corporate earnings and economic growth, particularly in the U.S., where consensus estimates have repeatedly underestimated earnings. That resilience has extended beyond technology and artificial intelligence, HSBC said, while U.S. corporate tax rates remain near multi-decade lows.

Another factor is the changing relationship between stocks and bonds. With government bonds no longer providing the same diversification against equity risk as they once did,…

Shares of HDFC Bank, India’s largest private sector lender, rose 2.5% Monday before paring gains, after Chief Executive Sashidhar Jagdishan made a surprise announcement about exiting the bank after the end of his term in October.

Analysts believe that the successor’s profile could offer the bank re-rating potential, especially as the stock has been battered since the start of the year. As per LSEG data, shares of HDFC have tanked 27% since the start of the year compared with an 8% drop of the benchmark Nifty 50 index.

The next chief executive will need to accelerate growth, improve deposit mobilization and returns, and rebuild confidence around governance and senior-management stability, global brokerage Nomura said in a report on Sunday.

“A credible successor could become a meaningful rerating catalyst,” it said but added that the stock would “remain under pressure in the near term” until there is clarity on the next chief executive and the direction in which he will steer the bank.

This is the second time this year that the bank has been embroiled in a leadership crisis. In March, the bank’s part-time chair Atanu Chakraborty resigned after flagging governance and ethical concerns within the institution.

“Despite persuasion, Mr. Jagdishan reiterated his decision to not seek reappointment,” HDFC said in a release on Saturday, adding it will “fast-track the process for selection and appointment of his successor.”

During Jagdishan’s tenure, HDFC Bank completed a $40 billion takeover of the country’s largest mortgage lender, the synergies from which are yet to be fully realized, as per analysts.

Two banks have paused selling products of Mark Walter’s Delaware Life amid concerns of federal probes into how the insurer’s parent company reported about $20 billion in assets that were affiliated with other entities controlled by the billionaire Los Angeles Dodgers owner, CNBC has confirmed.

The pause by the banks, Truist Financial Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp, came to light Friday, two days after Walter’s holding company, TWG Global, issued a statement saying “there has been no fraud” at Delaware Life and its affiliated company, Clear Spring Life and Annuity.

Bloomberg first reported the pause. A person familiar with the situation confirmed the pause by the banks to CNBC, speaking on condition of anonymity because it hasn’t been announced.

That person said Delaware Life is continuing to meet with both banks to support existing contracts and to discuss trends in the insurance sector. The person said Delaware Life is also keeping the banks apprised of its effort to reduce the level of affiliated-party assets.

Truist has a longstanding business relationship with Delaware Life. Fifth Third only began doing business with the insurer in April, according to the person familiar.

“Our communications with key distribution partners remain open and cooperative,” a spokesperson for Delaware Life told CNBC.

Fifth Third declined to comment. Truist did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Manhattan and the Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating Delaware Life and Clear Spring, Delaware Life said in a regulatory filing.

Last September, FBI agents seized Walter’s phone and computer pursuant to a warrant they executed aboard a private plane in Chicago as part of a probe of his businesses, news outlets have reported.

Both Delaware Life and Clear Spring received grand jury subpoenas in February in connection with the probes, Delaware Life said in the regulatory filing.

In a review of its affiliated- and related-party disclosures conducted after receiving the subpoenas, Delaware Life revised the share of its total invested assets classified as affiliated with other Walter companies from 3% to 42%.

The probes gained widespread attention after Walter agreed to sell his majority stake in the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this month, less than a year after buying the team.

Shares of Chinese ice cream and beverages chain Mixue Group fell more than 7% in Hong Kong on Friday, extending losses to a second straight session after the company reported a decline in first-half profit.

The stock closed 8.37% lower on Thursday, when Mixue reported that profit for the period fell 14.7% year on year to 2.32 billion yuan ($345.2 million) for the six months ended June. Revenue rose 2.3% to 15.22 billion yuan. 

The company also proposed a special dividend of 2.65 yuan per share, subject to shareholder approval.

Mixue’s profitability came under pressure from rising costs and expenses. Cost of sales grew faster than revenue, primarily due to investments aimed at improving product quality, while selling and distribution expenses jumped 22.9% on higher marketing and staff costs, the company said. Administrative expenses also rose 39.4%, mainly due to higher staff costs. 

Mixue Group now has more stores globally than McDonald’s and more than four times Dunkin’s, with its store network totaling nearly 63,987 as of the end of June. The company is known for its affordable drinks and ice cream, including its signature King Cone vanilla ice cream. 

While most of its stores are in mainland China, the company had 4,378 stores overseas as of end-June and has been expanding into new markets, including central Asia and the Americas.  

Looking ahead, the company said it plans to deepen its presence in Southeast Asia and push further into central Asia and the Americas, while building a more localized supply chain to support its overseas expansion.

The company is also looking beyond drinks, with plans to turn its Snow King mascot into a global cultural brand through animated series, comics, movies, featured merchandise and even theme parks.