Fabi Lara: What to Do When Commodities Prices Go Parabolic

Finance News — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 04:54:17 +0000

Speaking against a backdrop of record-high gold and silver prices, Fabi Lara, creator of the Next Big Rush, delivered a timely reality check at this year’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.

Addressing a packed room that included a noticeable influx of first-time attendees, she urged investors to balance excitement with discipline as the commodities bull market accelerates.

Lara framed her talk around advice she would give her daughter based on hard-earned lessons from more than a decade in the resource sector, including surviving long stretches of disappointment before a surge.

“What we’re going through this year is not normal,” she said. “We’re not usually this fat and happy and joyful. This is completely outside of what the last number of years have been.”

Lara, often dubbed the “uranium girl” for her early conviction in the sector’s 2021 to 2022 rally, drew parallels between uranium’s past run and current moves in the gold and silver market.

Prices, she warned, are rising so fast that even seasoned investors are uneasy.

“The price is moving too quickly,” she said, noting that her presentation charts were outdated almost as soon as they were prepared. “That’s how quickly this market is moving.”

During the conference, which ran from January 25 to 26, gold breached US$5,000 per ounce, while silver reached triple digits, continuing on even higher as the week continued. Ultimately, those high levels proved as unsustainable as Lara anticipated — by Monday (February 2) gold was sitting in the US$4,600 range, while silver was at US$79.

What stage is the market in?

While some investors see parabolic prices as a signal to exit entirely, Lara cautioned against all-or-nothing thinking. Instead, she emphasized understanding where the market sits within the broader arc of a bull cycle.

Referencing Doug Casey’s framework, she outlined three phases: the stealth stage, the wall of worry and the mania.

In her view, today’s market sits uncomfortably between the latter two.

“Some people think we’re already in mania because of the price,” Lara said. “I don’t think we’re quite there yet.”

She pointed to lagging indicators, including subdued valuations across the TSX Venture Exchange and conservative assumptions in mining feasibility studies, as signs that the cycle still has room to run.

That said, Lara acknowledged the risks of complacency.

She recounted stories of investors who rode bull markets too long, only to find “no bids” when they tried to exit. Her solution: gradual repositioning. “Don’t wait too long,” she said. “Start to leave your positions slowly.”

For her own portfolio — and hypothetically, for her daughter’s — Lara favors selling in thirds rather than making dramatic moves. Trimming positions can relieve pressure without sacrificing exposure to further upside. Fully exiting, she warned, risks missing the very…

Parabolic Bitcoin Rally Is Coming—Here’s What To Watch

Finance News — Sat, 13 Sep 2025 13:21:16 +0000

One of the dominant narratives this cycle has been that “this time is different.” With institutional adoption reshaping Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics, many argue that we won’t see the kind of euphoric blowoff top that defined past cycles. Instead, the idea is that smart money and ETFs will smooth out volatility, replacing mania with maturity. But is that really the case?

Sentiment Drives Markets, Even for Institutions

Skeptics often dismiss tools like the Fear and Greed Index as too simplistic, arguing that they can’t capture the nuance of institutional flows. But writing off sentiment ignores a fundamental truth that institutions are still run by people, and people remain prone to the same cognitive and emotional biases that drive market cycles, regardless of how deep their pockets are!

Figure 1: The Fear and Greed Index still shows sentiment extremes are the best areas to act as a contrarian. View Live Chart

Even though volatility has dampened compared to earlier cycles, the move from $15,000 to over $120,000 is far from underwhelming. And crucially, Bitcoin has achieved this without the kind of deep, extended drawdowns that marked past bull markets. The ETF boom and corporate treasury accumulation have shifted supply dynamics, but the basic feedback loop of greed, fear, and speculation remains intact.

Market Bubbles Are a Timeless Reality

It’s not just Bitcoin that’s susceptible to parabolic runs, bubbles have been part of markets for centuries. Asset prices have repeatedly surged beyond fundamentals, fueled by human behavior. Studies consistently show that stability itself often breeds instability, and that quiet periods encourage leverage, speculation, and eventually runaway price action. Bitcoin has followed this same rhythm. Periods of low volatility see Open Interest climb, leverage build, and speculative bets increase.

Figure 2: Open Interest has historically spiked during low-volatility periods, a setup that often precedes sharp parabolic moves. View Live Chart

Contrary to the belief that “sophisticated” investors are immune, research from the London School of Economics suggests the opposite. Professional capital can accelerate bubbles by piling in late, chasing momentum, and amplifying moves. The 2008 housing crisis and the dot-com bust were not retail-driven, but led by institutions.

ETF flows this cycle provide another powerful example. Periods of net outflows from spot ETFs have actually coincided with local market bottoms. Rather than perfectly timing the cycle, these flows reveal that “smart money” is just as prone to herd behavior and trend following investing as retail traders.

Figure 3: ETF outflows (red) have consistently coincided with local market bottoms, a contrarian signal. View Live Chart

Capital Flows Could Ignite Bitcoin’s Next Leap