Iraq wants OPEC to significantly increase the country’s oil supply quota, Baghdad said on Thursday, following reports it would consider quitting the cartel over the dispute.

As the second-largest oil exporter in the group, Iraq holds significant influence over OPEC, which saw its third-largest producer, the United Arab Emirates, exit in April. 

It comes after Reuters reported Iraq was weighing leaving the cartel and Bloomberg quoted an Iraqi old ministry spokesperson warning that a “decision will have to be made regarding whether to remain in or withdraw” if oil quotas are not lifted.

Iraq’s oil ministry said later on Thursday that reports suggesting Baghdad could end its membership in OPEC “did not reflect the Iraqi government’s official position,” but added that it continues to stress the importance of reviewing oil production quotas.

Neither the Iraqi ministry and OPEC were immediately available to respond directly to comment requests from CNBC.

Iraq’s economy is heavily reliant on oil, and its dependency on exports through the Persian Gulf has been exposed since the U.S. and Israel began war with Iran on February 28.

The Iraqi cabinet in June approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, which would more than triple its existing shipments from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000. 

The route offers an alternative passage through Kurdistan to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. When operating at full capacity, it should provide relief to the oil-dependent Iraqi economy, which contributed 53% to its real GDP in 2025, according to the World Bank.

Exclusive data shown to CNBC by economic intelligence provider QuantCube Technology reveals that Iraq’s overall exports have virtually dried up since the war began, as a result of its geographical dependence on Hormuz.

QuantCube’s indicator measures the volume of deadweight tonnage leaving Iraqi and UAE ports, which provides an estimate of the cargo weight the ships are carrying.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais on Thursday dismissed the International Energy Agency’s prediction of a supply glut brewing in oil markets.

The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that a lasting resolution to the conflict could drive a surge in supply volumes and trigger a major oil overhang next year. 

Its report said supply is expected to surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand rises by 2 million barrels per day in 2027.

But OPEC’s al-Ghais rejected the forecast in an exclusive interview with CNBC on Thursday.

He told CNBC’s Dan Murphy that “sometimes it’s best not to make such assumptions when they are not really based on facts and figures.”

“What does the IEA see that OPEC and the rest don’t see?” he said. “[We focus] on fundamentals and not putting many ifs and buts in our forecasts, but rather focusing on actual numbers.”

“We’re not about making a fancy headline that will be catchy. Sometimes it’s best not to make such assumptions… when they are not really based on actual facts and figures.”

“Ultimately, these headlines only create more volatility.”

Oil prices rose Monday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran and Israel traded strikes, raising concerns over a fragile ceasefire and an extended conflict.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July advanced 3.18% to $96.05 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August gained 3.46% to $93.67 a barrel.

The Israeli Air Force hit military targets in western and central Iran, Monday local time, Israel Defense Forces said in post on X.

President Donald Trump was briefed after Israel was hit by an Iranian missile for the first time since the start of the ceasefire, the White House confirmed to MS NOW. The missile attacks are “certainly not going to help negotiations.” Trump told Fox News on Sunday.

“A deal with President Trump is no longer feasible at this stage,” an Iranian official involved in the talks between Tehran and Washington told MS NOW.

In a post on X, MB Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker, said that the U.S. “naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon” would be violations of the ceasefire. The region’s U.S. and regime bases and assets are now “legitimate targets” due to the current U.S. blockade as well as military action in Lebanon, he added.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July, according to an OPEC statement, making this the fourth oil output quota hike approval since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This increase is on par with June’s, which was lowered from monthly increases of 206,000 bpd in May and April due to the exit of the UAE from the organization.

—CNBC’s Garrett Downs contributed to the report.

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ was based on the country’s economic vision and not on politics, the country’s energy minister said on Saturday.

“This decision came following a comprehensive assessment of the national production policy and its future capabilities, and it is based solely on the national interest of the United Arab Emirates, its responsibility as a reliable energy supplier, and its unwavering commitment to maintaining market stability,” Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei said in a post on X.

The Emirates announced earlier this month it would depart the producer group OPEC, of which it was a member since 1967, before the UAE was even founded. 

“This decision is not based on any political considerations, nor does it reflect the existence of any divisions between the United Arab Emirates and its partners,” Mazrouei said.

The exit “represents a sovereign and strategic choice stemming from its long-term economic vision, the evolution of its capabilities in the energy sector, and its steadfast commitment to global energy security,” the oil minister said.

Before the war, the UAE was producing just over 3 million barrels a day — broadly in line with OPEC+ targets. Abu Dhabi has targeted a capacity to produce 4.9 million BPD. Now, due to the war, the UAE is producing between 1.8 and 2.1 million barrels per day.

The UAE was the most influential member of OPEC behind Saudi Arabia. It was one of the few members, along with Saudi Arabia, that had meaningful spare production capacity to influence prices and respond to supply shocks, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told CNBC after the UAE announced its decision.

Spare capacity is the idle production that can be brought online quickly to address major crises. Saudi Arabia and the UAE together control a majority of the world’s total spare capacity of more than 4 million barrels per day, making them particularly influential during periods of distress.

Oil prices rose Friday on speculation that President Donald Trump is likely to turn his attention back to the stalemated conflict with Iran after leaving a summit in China with President Xi Jinping.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July gained more than 3% to close at $109.26 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June advanced more than 4% to settle at $105.42 per barrel.

Brent crude prices are 74 percent up year-to-date, but below a high of $118 a barrel reached in late April.

Oil was struggling for direction Thursday as traders weighed OPEC‘s lower demand outlook for this year, while the International Energy Agency flagged greater volatility ahead.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July were down 0.21% at $105.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June fell 0.16% at $100.87 per barrel. Both had started the day marginally higher.

OPEC cut its demand growth estimates for 2026 to about 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.4 million bpd previously, in its latest monthly update. OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April and has declined more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd since the start of the Iran war in late February.

OPEC’s latest update is expected to be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which exited the cartel on May 1.

The International Energy Agency‘s on Wednesday also highlighted the impact of the Iran war on oil supply. “More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said. 

With more than 14 million bpd of supply cut, the overall loss from Gulf producers is now over a billion barrels, the IEA said, adding that greater price volatility is likely as peak summer demand approaches.

“The duration of elevated fuel prices remains a subject of intense discussion and is closely tied to ongoing geopolitical developments surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East from further conflict,” ING analysts said in a note.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be closely watched by traders.

Former US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Wednesday that China wants the conflict to end as it’s the biggest customer of oil that flows via the Hormuz Strait. “President Xi wants this war to be over as much as President Trump does.”

— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct the day to Thursday.

OPEC+ has agreed an increase in oil output of 188,000 barrels per day, the cartel said on Sunday, as it pushes on with production in the first meeting since the loss of its key member, the United Arab Emirates.

The group of seven major oil producers announced it would increase June production by slightly less than May’s output hike of 206,000 bpd. Sunday’s figure excludes the United Arab Emirates share of output, which officially departed OPEC on May 1. 

The seven countries included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” OPEC said in its statement.

Oil supply has been choked since the Iran war began on February 28, as the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping route for global oil and gas supplies – has remained effectively closed. 

Oil prices fell Friday after Iran sent an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, raising hopes again that a settlement with the U.S. is still possible.

U.S. crude oil futures fell 3% to close at $101.94 per barrel. The international benchmark Brent crude lost nearly 2% to settle at $108.17. Both are nearly 78% higher since the start of 2026.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he had been told about the concept of a deal with Iran, but was waiting for the exact wording, while warning there was still the possibility of restarting strikes on the country if Tehran misbehaves.

Reuters quoted a senior Iranian official as saying on Saturday that an Iranian proposal so far rejected by Trump would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade of Iran while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear program for later.

Concerns around production were amplified further on Tuesday with news of the shock departure of the UAE, the cartel’s third-largest producer.

The Gulf state concluded that exiting the group was in its national interest following a comprehensive review of its production policy and capacity, the Energy Ministry said in a written statement.

The UAE had played an influential role in OPEC’s decisions over nearly six decades and was the group’s third-largest oil producer in February, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

– Reuters contributed to this story.

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he strongly supports the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave the international oil cartel OPEC, saying he believes the move will bring energy prices down.

“I think it’s great,” Trump told reporters at the White House after meeting with Artemis II astronauts.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is “very smart,” said Trump, “and he probably maybe wants to go his own way. That’s a good thing.”

“I think ultimately it’s a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down,” Trump said, adding, “they’re having some problems in OPEC.”

Oil prices have spiraled upwards since the U.S. and Israel launched a war with Iran on Feb. 28.

The UAE in a surprise announcement Tuesday said it would end its long association with the group on May 1.

The decision was quickly viewed as a blow to OPEC and its 11 remaining members, which have coordinated on setting oil prices and production quotas for more than six decades.

The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest oil producer in February, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. 

Abu Dhabi concluded after reviewing its production policy and capacity that exiting the group was in its national interest, its energy ministry said in a statement.

The ministry stressed its appreciation for the OPEC alliance and said it values its decades of cooperation with the organization’s members.

But the announcement also comes after the UAE has faced repeated missile and drone attacks by Iran, a fellow OPEC member, which has responded to the war started by the U.S. and Israel by launching strikes on regional powers.

Tehran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also severely constrained the UAE’s ability to export oil, threatening its economy.

The Trump administration has responded to Iran’s actions in the strait by imposing its own retaliatory blockade of Iranian ports.

The meddling in the strait has led to an apparent stalemate in negotiations. Iran has proposed a mutual reopening of the strait, while postponing nuclear talks for later, but Trump rejected the plan, Axios reported Wednesday morning.

“They are choking like a stuffed pig, and it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told the outlet.

Trump, speaking in the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon, called his blockade “genius” and “100% foolproof,” suggesting it will stay in place until Iran waves the white flag.

“They have to cry uncle” and say they “give up,” Trump said.

Asked if the blockade will be enough to bring Iran to the table for peace talks or if further strikes will be necessary, Trump said it…

The United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC this week will weaken the influence of the cartel and its leader Saudi Arabia on the oil market, a development that could prove bearish for prices over the long term.

The UAE was the most influential member of OPEC behind Saudi Arabia. It was one of the few members, along with Saudi Arabia, that had meaningful spare production capacity to influence prices and respond to supply shocks, said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

Spare capacity is the idle production that can be brought online quickly to address major crises. Saudi Arabia and the UAE together control a majority of the world’s total spare capacity of more than 4 million barrels per day, making them particularly influential during periods of distress.

The UAE’s “departure therefore removes one of the core pillars underpinning OPEC’s ability to manage the market,” León said in a note Tuesday. OPEC will become “structurally weaker” as a consequence, he said.

It is also a blow to the Saudis because it undermines their ability to manage OPEC as an organization, said David Goldwyn, who served as the State Department’s special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs from 2009 to 2011.

Riyadh will still have a significant ability to discipline the market with its own spare capacity but it will have a weaker hand now that the UAE is no longer a member, Goldwyn told CNBC.

The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC this Friday comes after weeks of missile and drone barrages by fellow member Iran. Tehran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has constrained the UAE’s oil exports, threatening the foundation of its economy.

The UAE has not attributed its departure to the war. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC in an interview Tuesday that the UAE’s exit was timed to limit the disruption to fellow producers in the group.

Indeed, the UAE’s exit is unlikely to affect the market in the next year with the strait closed, Goldwyn said. Oil futures prices did not really react to the announcement Tuesday.

But the UAE’s departure could prove bearish later, said John Kilduff, founder of Again Capital. It undermines the cohesion needed among producers to keep prices from falling too much during supply gluts, he said.

The UAE wants more freedom of action to make production decisions without the constraints of OPEC and to reach its goal of 5 million bpd of capacity by 2027, Al Mazrouei said.

The UAE has chafed under years of oil production cuts led by the Saudis to support prices, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. It has watched as Iraq and OPEC+ member Russia have routinely exceeded their quotas, Lipow said.

“When the conflict between the USA and Iran ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, I expect that the UAE will produce as much oil as they can, utilizing any spare capacity that they have held in reserve,” Lipow told CNBC.

The market might miss Saudi’s ability to put a floor under prices if oil demand is…