Bear scenario: Gold price falls to US$3,500

In an interview at the end of April, Gareth Soloway of VerifiedInvesting.com said he thought gold would likely come down to US$4,300, and after that could potentially continue falling.

“The chart’s telling me that we’re likely coming down to this US$4,300 level, maybe a small bounce, then we’ll break down to US$3,900 here,” he said. “Now again, will that be the bottom in gold or not? That’s a good question. I do think that there’s potential for a washout later this year, back to about the US$3,500 level.”

Soloway’s gold price target is based on technical analysis, but Chris Temple of the National Investor has identified a variety of fundamental reasons that could take gold as low as US$3,500. The main one is that he thinks the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a position to cut interest rates in the near term.

“Bottom line, in my view, what causes gold to turn around is when the Fed has to stop pretending that it cares about inflation, that it can do a darn thing about it, and just starts going nuts,” he said.

“That’s when gold gets going again, and we’re a little ways from that.”

Neutral scenario: Gold price trades sideways

Both Soloway and Temple are positive on gold long term, meaning they see higher prices after a deeper correction — in fact, Soloway emphasized that if the metal does fall to US$3,500, he would be buying long-term positions.

The same can be said for the experts who anticipate more sideways movement from gold over the summer — after further consolidation in the summer months they’re calling for higher prices.

In a late May interview, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle of Incrementum and the “In Gold We Trust” report said that at the moment gold lacks immediate catalysts, commenting, “We’re seeing some headwinds, we’re seeing very weak seasonality, we’re already seeing … lots of negative sentiment in the market, especially in the gold and silver miners.”

Stoeferle added, “I wouldn’t expect too much for gold and silver over the next couple of weeks, probably after the World Cup is done, I think. Then perhaps there’s going to be more upside — but that’s just…