Amid the ongoing Iran war, the roar of the Middle East’s commercial tourism has been replaced by the steady hum of repatriation flights, leaving vacationers to navigate the landscape of rising airfares and safety concerns. It’s yet another airspace closure that airlines have had to deal with since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It’s a stark contrast to a prediction from the United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Economy and Tourism that the country would amass a market volume of almost $950 billion by 2026. Dubai, in particular, finds its position as the crown jewel of Middle East’s tourism faltering as its airports have been forced to shut temporarily during the conflict.

Canceled flights to and from the Middle East region have exceeded 46,000 since the U.S.-Israel attacks on Feb. 28, aviation data firm Cirium told CNBC previously. And at the Aviation Festival in Singapore in March, India’s SpiceJet said the Middle East conflict has significantly affected its operations due to heavy traffic between India and the region.

But it’s not just airlines that have been cancelling flights. Travelers from Asia told CNBC they have been canceling their travel plans to the Middle East and considering holidays within their own region instead.

Her plans were quickly cut short when she began looking for flight tickets, as prices were “just so high,” that she couldn’t justify the cost, she told CNBC in an interview — a surge in fuel prices caused by the fallout from the Iran war has seen airfares rise. Bui found that flight tickets, including layovers, from Vietnam to the Middle East, had reached about $1,500 to $2,000 in March.

Many travelers cited non-refundable fare change fees as a top cancellation trigger, Jay Ellenby, president of Safe Harbors travel group, said in an email. There was a noticeable 20-30% uptick in cancellations for Middle East routes from the travel agency’s Asian clients, with many quoting $450 non-refundable fare change fees on international trips being a top cancellation trigger.

Instead, these travelers were pivoting to Southeast Asian hubs like Singapore or intra-Asian routes, Ellenby added.

Booking platforms have been collating user data to create more effective suggestions for travelers stuck in transit or in ticket planning limbo.

Instead of needing to have multiple booking tabs open, travel websites have been looking to help shoppers find quick solutions, according to Maurizio Garavello,…

U.S. President Donald Trump says he’ll end the war within weeks, but fears for oil supply and demand destruction are set to linger.

In an address on Wednesday evening, Trump said he expected the war to last another two to three weeks, during which time U.S. forces will “hit” Iran “extremely hard.”

The timescale was a reiteration of what Trump had said the previous day, when he told reporters at the White House that the Iran war would end within weeks “whether we have a deal or not.”

Oil prices have skyrocketed since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, sparking retaliatory strikes across the Gulf from Tehran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure of the critical shipping route contributed to global benchmark Brent crude oil prices surging more than 60% over the course of March, marking the biggest monthly price gain since records began in the 1980s.

In the wake of Trump’s 19-minute speech on Wednesday, oil prices soared as analysts noted U.S. troops and aircraft continued to arrive in the Middle East, casting doubt over Trump’s insistence the conflict is drawing to a close.

Global benchmark Brent crude was last seen trading more than 6.5% higher at around $107.79 per barrel around 11:00 a.m. in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil added around 6% to settle at just over $106 a barrel.

There are fears that a prolonged conflict could lead to demand destruction — a sustained drop in demand brought on by high prices or limited supply. The decline in demand can push consumers to reduce their consumption of specific goods, like gasoline, or seek out alternatives, like electric or more fuel-efficient vehicles.

“If Middle East oil exports were to remain low for longer, we see potential for significant price-driven reductions in demand for gasoline and diesel in the largest markets with flexible prices (e.g. US) and emerging markets where prices have risen sharply and fuel demand is likely relatively price-sensitive (e.g. South Africa, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam),” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday.

“Pockets of clearer demand destruction have emerged in certain markets, including in aviation and Asian petrochemical industries,” they added.  

Some officials and market watchers have warned that markets have not fully priced how long it will take to bring oil supplies back up to speed, given the backlog of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction and closure of energy facilities in the Middle East.

In an interview with The Economist last week, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde labeled market views of a swift recovery from the Iran war “overly optimistic,” telling the publication that there is “no way” the Gulf’s lost energy supply can be…

Hours after the first salvos of the U.S. and Israel’s “pre-emptive” strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, the data analytics firm Kpler observed vessels in the Persian Gulf making unusual maneuvers, with location data from ships in the Gulf showing vessels traveling over land and making sharp turns in polygonal paths.

Since the start of the war, similar disruptions to location-based services have surged across the Middle East, affecting mariners, aircraft, and motorists alike.

These disruptions have also exposed key vulnerabilities of the GPS, an American-made system now synonymous with satellite navigation.

For years, firms like Kpler have flagged thousands of instances of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf manipulating onboard Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals — the system used to track vessels in transit — to evade sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

Known as spoofing, this manipulation of location signals allows vessels to obscure their movements, and has long been a tool of “covert” operations, according to Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst from Kpler.

But since the start of hostilities in the Middle East, location spoofing in the Persian Gulf has surged dramatically. Within the first 24 hours of the conflict, maritime intelligence firm Windward logged over 1,100 different vessels across the Gulf experiencing AIS interference, followed by a 55% increase a week later.

Such forms of electronic interference are increasingly being deployed as defensive countermeasures in modern warfare — similar disruptions followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to a CSIS report.

But this interference has also disrupted various aspects of everyday life.

Interference has caused aircraft to appear having traveled in erratic, wave-like patterns; on land, malfunctioning GPS systems have also caused food delivery riders to appear off the coast of Dubai.

The persistent jamming and spoofing activity in the region also poses key public safety concerns,…

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while the Iran war poses near-term risks, it may ultimately improve the prospects for lasting peace in the Middle East.

“I think the Iran war makes it a better chance in the long run — it’s probably riskier in the short run, because we don’t know the outcome of it,” Dimon told Palantir executive and former Congressman Mike Gallagher at a conference held in Washington, D.C.

The key shift, according to Dimon, is a convergence of interests among regional powers. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the U.S. and Israel all want permanent peace, he said, adding that Persian Gulf states in particular have shown a willingness to move in that direction.

“The attitude is not what the attitude was 20 years ago,” Dimon said. “They all want it.”

The conflict began last month when the U.S. and Israel launched hundreds of strikes on Iran, including one that killed the country’s supreme leader. The war has reverberated through global markets as oil prices surged because of supply disruptions. While stocks climbed Monday after President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the sides had talked about a “complete and total resolution” to the war, Iran denied that talks were happening.

Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market cap, also tied his Middle East analysis directly to economics, arguing that foreign direct investment — which had been flowing into the region for years — will dry up without stability.

“They can’t have neighbors lobbing ballistic missiles into their data centers,” he said.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose on Tuesday as renewed volatility in oil markets and lingering Middle East tensions kept investors on edge.

The benchmark yield was up more than 3 basis points at 4.37% as of 04:36 a.m. ET. The 30-year yield added over 2 basis points to 4.937%, while the 20-year yielded 4.968%, up about 3 basis points.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The move higher in yields came as oil prices rebounded in Tuesday Asian trading, reversing part of the sharp losses seen in the previous session as traders reassessed developments in the Middle East conflict.

Oil had initially slumped on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward ending hostilities, adding that he had ordered a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.

However, the rebound in crude prices on Tuesday suggests markets remain unconvinced that tensions will ease quickly, particularly after Iranian officials denied that any talks had taken place.

Analysts noted that conflicting headlines have reinforced uncertainty, keeping both energy and rates markets sensitive to developments. Easing tensions and lower oil prices had briefly supported Treasurys earlier in the week, but renewed uncertainty is once again weighing on sentiment.

“Headline risk remains particularly elevated as the war continues without a clear off-ramp,” BMO’s head of U.S. rates strategy, Ian Lyngen, wrote, adding that U.S. rates are likely to take their primary cue from swings in energy prices until there is greater clarity on the conflict.

Oil prices gained in Asia trading Tuesday after clocking steep declines overnight, as traders assess developments related to the Middle East conflict.

Brent crude futures for May rose over 3% to $102.96 per barrel while the West Texas Intermediate futures for May jumped 3.6% to $91.27 per barrel.

The uptick follows a sharp sell-off on Monday, with Brent crude falling about 11% to around $99 per barrel on Monday after topping $112 on Friday.

“I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump said Monday in a Truth Social post.

“I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD,” Trump wrote.

Trump’s statement sent oil lower, while equities jumped. Still, the recovery on Tuesday suggests lingering skepticism over Trump’s claims — that were also refuted by Iran. 

“Despite the exuberance on Wall Street, ladies and gentlemen, oil is well off its lows after Tehran denied conducting any weekend negotiations with Washington,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, who added that the risk of an extended war remains at the top of the mind for the market.

Torres noted that repeated attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East are fueling continued concerns over potential disruptions to production and transportation.

“Additionally, in consideration of the vast number of attacks that have affected critical energy in the Middle East … there’s nervousness that there could be capacity and transportation disruptions that keep costs higher than at the beginning of the year even if there’s a deal,” he wrote in a note published on Tuesday.

The Strait of Hormuz was handling about 20% of global seaborne oil supplies until the war broke out, before Iran virtually stopped flows via the critical waterway. 

Iranian state media said Sunday that Tehran would permit safe transit through the strait, except for ships associated with its “enemies.”

HOUSTON — Asian countries want to buy more U.S. energy to reduce their dependence on oil and gas exports from the Middle East, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told CNBC on Monday.

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan rely heavily on exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tanker traffic through the strait has plunged as Iran attacks commercial ships in the Persian Gulf.

“They want to buy more energy from the U.S.,” Burgum told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan in an interview. President Donald Trump’s energy dominance agenda is designed to provide U.S. allies with a stable, alternative supply of energy, the Interior secretary said.

The U.S. is the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

“Our allies and our friends can buy from us as opposed to having to buy from countries that either wage war or fund terrorism,” said Burgum, who travelled to Japan earlier this month.

The U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. Tokyo relies on the strait for 90% of its oil imports, said Takehiko Matsuo, a vice minister at Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

“The impact is significant,” Matsuo said at S&P Global’s CERAWeek conference in Houston, Texas. Japan has placed a high priority on finding alternative supplies, he said.

“I must say it’s not easy,” the vice minister said. “The United States is one of the most anticipated alternative energy source for Asian countries.”

Asian economies are also heavily dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports through the strait. Iranian attacks on Qatar’s energy infrastructure has shut down about 20% of the world’s LNG supplies.

Alaska will play a major role in providing Asia with secure energy, Burgum said. The Interior Department recently held an oil and gas lease sale for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. The Trump administration has also made an massive LNG project in Alaska a top priority.

Energy exported from Alaska takes just eight days to reach Asian allies, five of which are in U.S. territorial waters along the Aleutian Island, Burgum said.

“It’s a secure supply of energy,” the interior secretary said.

The head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged since the Iran war began, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Australia’s capital, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said damage to oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines across the Middle East would take some time to repair.

His comments come as market participants closely monitor threats from the U.S. and Iran over energy facilities as the sprawling regional conflict enters its fourth week.

The Iran war has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, creating what the IEA says is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also been reduced by roughly 20% since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Birol said the fallout from the Iran war is equivalent to the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis “put together.”

He added: “And, if I may, not only oil and gas. Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium. Their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

Iran’s Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf responded, saying that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Given that shipping has virtually ground to a halt in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, the IEA’s Birol said the reopening of the waterway was the “single most important” solution to the global energy crisis.

He singled out Asia as being at the forefront of the Iran war energy shock and said the IEA was prepared to follow-up its historic release of 400 million barrels of oil to the market on March 11.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Birol said.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.