The immediate impact of the war with Iran on the U.S. housing market has been a sharp rise in mortgage rates. One day before the strikes began, the average rate on the 30-year fixed loan was 5.99%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now hovering around 6.5%.

Higher rates have curtailed what was expected to be an improvement in affordability. Not only were mortgage rates falling before the war, but home price gains were shrinking and the supply of houses for sale was rising. All of those favored buyers, who had been up against a tight and pricey market.

As interest rates rose last week, applications for a mortgage to buy a home dropped 5% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But it’s not just mortgage rates.

Zillow had forecast a 4.3% gain in sales of existing homes this year, compared with last year.

“While that of course would not be a strong market, it would represent a market that had turned a corner, with 2026 acting as a ‘reset’ year,” wrote Mischa Fisher, Zillow’s chief economist, in a report Tuesday. “However, new uncertainty has emerged via energy prices and inflation concerns, adding fresh complexity to our outlook.”

Fisher used the increase in mortgage rates, due to increased concerns over inflation and the “potential for a slight uptick in the unemployment rate given reduced consumer spending power resulting from higher prices.”

Modeling those, he forecast that if the current scenario only lasted through the end of April, home sales would still rise 3.48% this year compared with last year. If it ended July 1, sales that gain would drop to 2.33%. If it ended Sept. 1, the gain would be 1.21%. Finally, if mortgage rates stayed 50 basis points higher than their original path and unemployment also rose by 20 bps for the rest of 2026, Fisher forecasts a decline of 0.73%. 

The effects, however, are already hitting the new construction market. After reporting disappointing quarterly earnings Tuesday, KB Home lowered its full-year forecast.

“Consumers have been faced with a variety of challenges over the past two years, and the conflict in the Middle East that began at the end of February has added another layer of uncertainty,” said KB Home Chairman Jeff Mezger on a call with analysts. “Against this backdrop, and taking into consideration that our net orders in the first quarter were below the level we needed to hold our prior full-year delivery guidance, we are lowering our range for the year.”

Builders now have a very high supply of homes for sale, and inventory on the existing side is rising as well, albeit more in the South and West than in the Northeast and Midwest.

Even before the…

Sales of newly built homes in January dropped 17.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 587,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That is the slowest pace since 2022.

Housing analysts had been expecting a much smaller decline.

Sales were also 11.3% lower than in January 2025, according to the U.S. Census, which is still delayed in its reporting due to last year’s government shutdown. December sales were also revised lower.

This count is based on signed contracts, so people who were out shopping when mortgage rates were lower than they are today. The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan hovered between 6% and 6.2% during January, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is currently at 6.36%.

As a result, the inventory of homes for sale rose to a 9.7-month supply, up from eight months in December, according to the U.S. Census. That is 7.8% higher than January 2025.

More supply and less demand led builders to drop prices. The median price of a home sold in January was $400,500, the agency said, a decline of 6.8% year over year. Prices for existing homes are still flat nationally, but builders report increasing incentives to get buyers in the door.

Data from March does not appear to be any better. An estimated 37% of builders cut prices in March, an increase from February’s 36%, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Sales were lower across the nation, but they dropped the most in the Northeast and Midwest, where rough winter weather could have had an impact. However, sales were down nearly 22% from December in the West, where weather would not have played a part.

Home sales made a small gain to start the year, but higher mortgage rates now could throw cold water on the spring season.

Existing home sales in February rose 1.7% from January to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.09 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 1.4% from February of last year.

This count represents closed sales, so deals were likely inked in December and January, when mortgage rates fell a bit and stayed solidly in a low range near 6% on the 30-year-fixed mortgage. Rates were about a full percentage point higher the year before.

“Despite the modest gain in home sales, actual housing demand remains muted relative to wage growth and job gains,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said in a release. “Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost four percentage points. Mortgage rates are also measurably lower compared to a year ago.”

Yun also noted that there are over 6 million more jobs now than there were in 2019, yet home sales per year are down by 1 million.

Lower mortgage rates helped improve affordability slightly, but low inventory is still a significant headwind. There were 1.29 million units for sale at the end of February, an increase of 2.4% from January and 4.9% from February 2025. At the current sales pace, that is a 3.8-month supply, unchanged from January. A six-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

More sellers who delisted their homes last fall, due to slower sales and weak consumer confidence, are relisting their homes now, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. Nearly 45,000 homes that were delisted last year were relisted for sale in January. That is the highest January figure since Redfin began tracking this metric a decade ago and represents a record 3.6% of homes that were on the market in January.

“Inventory is growing, but sluggishly,” Yun said. “If demand picks up notably in the coming months and outpaces supply growth, home prices will inevitably rise. That is why increasing supply is so important to help limit home price growth, improve housing affordability, and boost transactions.”

Tight supply, however, is keeping prices just barely higher. The median price of a home sold in February was $398,000, an increase of 0.3% year over year. Sales continue to be strongest in the highest price category, properties listed at $1 million or above. Sales were down sharply on the lowest end of the market.

It continues to take longer to sell a home, at 47 days, up from 42 days one year ago. First-time buyers represented 34% of total sales, an increase from 31% a year ago. Investors made up 16% of sales, unchanged from a year ago.

Mortgage rates dropped sharply last week, and while that helped to prolong gains in refinancing, homebuyer demand seemed unimpressed.

Total mortgage application volume was essentially flat, rising just 0.4% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.09% from 6.17%, with points falling to 0.53 from 0.56, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That was the lowest level since September 2022.

Applications to refinance a home loan increased 4% last week from the week before and were 150% higher than the same week one year ago, when rates were 79 basis points higher. Refinancing has been on a bit of a tear lately, as rates drop. While the comparisons to a year ago are quite large, it is important to take into account that refinancing was quite low at this time last year.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week and were 12% higher year over year. While lower mortgage rates are improving affordability, home prices are still slightly higher than they were at this time last year and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on consumers.

Redfin cited this uncertainty in a report showing that nearly 40,000 home sale agreements nationwide were canceled in January, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract. That’s up from 13.1% a year ago and the highest January share in records dating to 2017.

Borrowers also sought more savings in adjustable-rate mortgages, which are slightly riskier but offer lower rates.

“The ARM share stayed above 8 percent, as ARM rates remained more than 80 basis points below conforming fixed rates,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a release. “This is giving payment-sensitive borrowers or those seeking larger loans, an incentive to choose this product offering.”