U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s likely successor, Andy Burnham, could face an immediate test in office: whether to expand drilling for North Sea oil or double down on renewables, amid a global energy shock.

U.S. President Donald Trump has poured gasoline on the debate, blaming Starmer’s resignation this month on his “failed” energy policy.

Trump’s intervention comes as the Iran war has disrupted oil flows through the critically important Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

The squeeze in physical supply has intensified the U.K.’s energy security and independence debate, following the shock from Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

Business leaders argue this is why domestic production matters.

But the political divide remains.

U.K. finance minister Rachel Reeves is understood to privately back new drilling.

But Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who could be in line to replace Reeves as finance minister under a new government, has argued the focus should instead be on clean energy.

Two of the U.K.’s biggest trade unions, Unite the Nation and GMB, are campaigning for drilling, over concerns that preventing it would damage jobs in the sector.

Burnham, who is set to become prime minister in July if he remains unchallenged by Labour Party colleagues, is under pressure to define his position quickly as markets react.

At the center of the debate are the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields in Scottish waters, two major projects that could boost U.K. supply, but test climate goals.

That is driving pressure in Scotland, where First Minister John Swinney told CNBC: “There is a changing balance that’s got to be struck.”

“We are going to have to utilize oil and gas for some years to come. If there is uncertainty about the security of supply, or security of supply is undermined because of exorbitant cost of the effects of the conflict in Iran, these are material factors that have got to be borne in mind,” he told CNBC.

In a move symbolic of the U.K.’s energy transition, the Grangemouth oil refinery — once Scotland’s largest — closed in April 2025, with the loss of hundreds of jobs.

Swinney said that the refinery had been “a source of production of jet fuel, so we’re now importing jet fuel because of a closure of a refinery.”

“We’ve now got uncertainty over jet fuel because of the conflict in the Middle East, and that will affect the ability of our economy to function,” Swinney added.

Hello, this is Justina Lee writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Artificial intelligence remains the market’s favorite, with investors continuing to rotate into semiconductor and technology names as companies race to build the next phase of the AI ecosystem. Amazon Web Services is also expanding into forward-deployed engineering, an increasingly competitive corner of the industry dominated by firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

China’s consumer outlook is also back in focus after Nike posted a 12% sales decline in Greater China sales, even as the country’s factory activity showed signs of improvement.

Meanwhile, Brent crude posted its biggest monthly decline since March 2020 as investors bet that tensions in the Middle East conflict may continue to ease.

The AI boom continues to reshape markets.

Investors have poured money into semiconductor companies beyond Nvidia, betting that the buildout of AI data centers will benefit a broader universe of chipmakers and infrastructure companies.

Intel, Micron and Advanced Micro Devices have gained about $2 trillion in combined market cap in the second quarter, making them among the most valuable U.S. tech companies and reflecting growing conviction in the next phase of AI spending.

That aligns with what analysts previously said: there could be a “changing of the guard” within the AI trade, as investors seek exposure to semiconductor companies complementary to Nvidia’s chips.

Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services is strengthening its presence in forward-deployed engineering, or FDE, as it seeks to better compete with OpenAI and Anthropic, which announced their own FDE units earlier this year. FDE teams work alongside customers to accelerate technical transformation and tailor AI systems to specific business needs. 

Beyond tech stocks, investors are also keeping a close eye on consumer demand. Sportswear giant Nike posted quarterly earnings that topped forecasts, aided by an expected refund of nearly $986 million in tariffs. However, analysts were concerned about growth in China, after sales dropped 12%, underscoring the challenges facing one of the company’s most important markets.

China’s manufacturing activity grew faster than expected in June, helped by high-tech production linked to global demand for AI-related products. But the recovery remains uneven.

Real estate investment and consumer goods production remained under pressure, raising questions about whether policymakers will need to step up support measures in the months ahead. Goldman Sachs warned that Beijing may face rising pressure to accelerate fiscal spending and government borrowing in the coming months to shore up growth.

Over in the Middle East, the prospects for fresh talks between Iran and…

Iran has exported more than 40 million barrels of crude oil since the U.S. removed its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and is now selling oil at prices roughly 20% higher than before the war, parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday.

The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to end nearly four months of war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and set ​up 60 days of negotiations to work out a permanent peace deal. The two sides briefly traded strikes over the weekend after Iran attacked two transiting vessels.

The ceasefire prompted a surge in crude shipments through the vital waterway where traffic had largely ground to a halt during the conflict, sending oil prices sharply lower.

“Since the day the naval blockade was lifted, we have exported more than 40 million barrels of oil,” Ghalibaf said in a television interview published on his Telegram channel. Iran had been unable to export a single barrel during the roughly two-month blockade that preceded the accord, he added.

Tanker tracking firm TankerTrackers.com said Wednesday that it estimated Iran had exported 50 million barrels of crude oil since the U.S. lifted its naval blockade on the country’s energy exports two weeks ago. The firm uses satellite imagery, shoreside photography, and a real-time automatic identification system to monitor vessel movement.

Brent crude traded near $73 a barrel Wednesday, down almost 40% from the war’s peak of $118 in April, as diplomatic progress and expectations of a Gulf supply rebound weigh on prices. Iranian crude sold at a discount of $10 to $15 a barrel below Brent before the war to compensate buyers for sanction risks, according to Gregory Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group.

Iran has agreed to let ships transit Hormuz toll-free for 60 days under the MOU, but insisted that it will retain control over the waterway’s administration.

“The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, and traffic in the strait is subject to arrangements determined by Iran,” Ghalibaf said. “Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances, and these are our territorial waters.”

It remains unclear how the strait will be governed once the 60-day window expires. Vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz via a southern corridor along Oman’s coast or through Iranian-controlled lanes to the north.

Ghalibaf also pushed back on President Donald Trump’s claim that unfrozen Iranian assets will be used to purchase American agricultural goods, saying that $12 billion of the roughly $24 billion in frozen assets abroad would go to the country’s central bank “to purchase any goods it needs, at any price and in any currency in the world.”

Oil prices were slightly higher on Tuesday as energy market participants closely monitored the potential for fresh talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with August delivery were last seen up 0.2% at $73.32 per barrel, erasing earlier losses. The contract, however, is on track to end June roughly $19 lower, or 20% lower than the closing session on May 29. Brent crude futures with September delivery, meanwhile, rose 0.5% at $74.29.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery traded 0.5% higher at $71.08, putting the contract on course for a $16 drop, or 19% fall, from last month’s closing.

The moves come as oil traders monitor the prospect of U.S.-Iran talks in Doha on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said talks between the two countries would take place in Qatar’s capital on Tuesday, claiming via social media that Tehran had “requested a meeting” following an exchange of strikes over the weekend.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Monday reportedly denied that talks were scheduled over the coming days. They added that an Iranian technical delegation’s visit to Qatar this week was not related to U.S. officials visiting the country.

The mixed messaging appears to underscore the fragility of an interim peace deal struck by the U.S. and Iran earlier this month.

The two countries struck a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 to pause fighting that had severely disrupted global oil flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Located in the gulf between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is recognized as one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The narrow waterway typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic.

Energy analysts say they have been surprised by the pace of the sell-off in the oil market, noting that it has been far more aggressive than most had expected.

“The price action in recent weeks reflects a market that is treating this temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran as a permanent deal. This is clearly not the case, and as we have seen over the last four months, the situation can change very quickly,” strategists at ING said in a research note published Monday.

“It took long enough to agree on a temporary ceasefire. Reaching a permanent deal which tackles the nuclear issue within 60 days would be very optimistic. Of course, there is always the potential for the ceasefire to be extended, which would effectively be kicking the can down the road,” they added.

Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Alphabet has learned a new set of letters: D-O-W. The Google parent made its debut on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday, helping send the blue-chip index above 52,000 and earning an A-grade showing from investors.

Elsewhere, politics also are on the radar as the Supreme Court handed President Donald Trump a split scorecard on executive power, Iran talks remain stuck in a start-stop pattern.

Read on!

The alphabet is one of the first things you learn as a child. But Alphabet, the company, will be the name that people learn when they now look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The Dow surged beyond the 52,000 mark on Monday stateside as the company joined the 30-stock index. Alphabet jumped 4% on Monday as the company replaced Verizon.

However, history does seem to have some warnings for the new kid on the block. Recent Dow additions have also struggled after joining the index: Nvidia, Salesforce and Apple all traded lower 60 days after entering the Dow.

Turning to the political front, the Supreme Court on Monday ruled that U.S. President Donald Trump does not have the authority to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank for now.

Last August, Trump had attempted to remove Cook from her position, claiming she committed mortgage fraud, which Cook adamantly denied.

However, the Court also expanded Trump’s presidential powers via a decision in a different case, affirming Trump’s firing of Federal Trade Commission Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter.

Overseas, the start-stop pattern of the Iran war lingers, with the U.S. President saying that fresh talks will take place in Qatar, after the U.S. and Iran exchanged a series of strikes over the weekend that threatened to derail negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

Oil prices were little changed, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures slipping to $70.16 a barrel and international benchmark Brent was up marginally at $73.15.

The mild reaction was met with warnings from strategists, who said this may reflect an overly optimistic stance from markets, which are underestimating the scale of persistent supply-side challenges.

In Asia today, investors will focus on key manufacturing activity coming out of China, with purchasing managers index numbers for June released later today.

Trump bought as much as $5 million in Axon stock before ICE sought $220 million Taser deal

President Donald Trump bought as much as $5 million in shares of Axon Enterprise — maker of Tasers, body cameras and policing software — two weeks before Immigration and Customs Enforcement sought a five-year, $220 million contract that experts told CNBC appeared tailored to the company’s weapons.

On Feb. 10, Trump…

Oil prices have fallen back sharply to near pre-war levels over recent weeks in response to a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran, and diplomatic efforts to bring the conflict to a lasting conclusion.

However, commodity strategists warned Monday that prices could reflect an overly optimistic stance from markets, which are underestimating the scale of persistent supply-side challenges.

Analysts argue that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to swiftly return to pre-war levels, even after a pickup in activity following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, as Tehran seeks to exert leverage over the critical chokepoint.

Nikos Petrakakos, managing director of investments at Tufton Investment Management, said many shipping companies remain wary of sending vessels back through the key energy chokepoint, citing uncertainty over the peace framework, lingering concerns over sea mines and elevated war-risk insurance premiums.

“Even though there is some more motion going on, in general, we’re nowhere near being back to where it was,” Petrakakos told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday.

International benchmark Brent crude futures were trading at $72.45 per barrel as of 8:42 a.m. ET on Monday, compared to a wartime-high of over $188 per barrel in late April.

Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, said markets may be underestimating how far shipping conditions remain from their pre-war norm.

While vessels that had been trapped are now transiting the Strait, she said the bigger challenge is persuading shippers to send vessels back in. “Shipping costs are incredibly high right now, and you still can’t find enough shippers willing to go back out in there,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Tensions in the Middle East flared again over the weekend, but markets appeared largely unfazed, with investors instead turning their attention to a tech recovery rally.

SpaceX is set to become one of the fastest-ever additions to the Nasdaq-100 index, while the memory crunch is forcing some smaller tech firms into increasingly difficult choices.

Read on!

For markets, the Iran conflict is starting to resemble the Beatles’ “Hey Jude.”

The opening bars have a familiar rhythm: tensions appear to ease, oil calms down, stocks find their footing and investors start the week ready to sing along.

But then comes the extended outro. Another strike, another threat, another weekend escalation — and just when it seems like the song should be winding down, it starts all over again.

The U.S. struck Iranian military targets over the weekend after Iran had reportedly attacked a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker on Saturday, briefly putting talks to end the war on hold. Iran’s neighbors, Kuwait and Bahrain, also reported incoming missiles and drones overnight.

This prompted U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday to renew his warnings to Iran, saying there could come a point when the U.S. would “no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”

But true to the song’s extended finale, the conflict quickly returned to familiar territory: the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt hostilities once more.

A U.S. official told CNBC Sunday that “technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU.”

“Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely,” the official said.

Oil prices climbed modestly following the escalation, with international benchmark Brent at $72.31 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $69.82.

Investors, however, appeared more fixated on whether last week’s tech sell-off has finally run its course. Asia markets started the week mixed, while U.S. market futures climbed.

Chip stocks came under pressure last Friday after a New York Times report said OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until next year, partly because of SpaceX’s weak performance after its debut and broader volatility in AI-related shares.

Despite that weakness, SpaceX is poised to become one of the fastest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, a move that could see buying by index-tracking funds and other product sponsors after the market closes on July 6.

Elsewhere in tech, the memory crunch is becoming increasingly painful. Companies such as Apple and Microsoft have been able to pass higher costs on to consumers, but smaller…

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to today’s edition of the Daily Open newsletter.

Geopolitical developments have dominated weekend newsflow, with a flare-up of tensions in Iran being quickly de-escalated.

But markets may need convincing that the ceasefire can really hold, as negotiations are stop-start at best.

The U.S. and Iran have reached a fresh agreement to halt hostilities after renewed fighting over the weekend between the two sides.

The military exchanges saw the U.S. strike Iranian military targets in response to Tehran’s latest attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, on Sunday, Washington and Tehran agreed to pause hostilities, resume commercial vessel traffic through the strategically important waterway and resume technical talks towards a peace deal.

“Technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU,” a U.S. official told CNBC on Sunday. “Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely.”

Stock futures in the U.S. are edging higher, while trading across Asia is mixed and Europe looks set for a muted open. Crude prices have jumped back above $70 a barrel amid concerns over the fragility of the peace negotiations.

This week, central banks take center stage in Sintra, Portugal, where the European Central Bank hosts its own version of Jackson Hole. Later today, ECB President Christine Lagarde gets the event underway with the opening speech. CNBC is at the event, with Sara Eisen moderating the headline panel on Wednesday, tune in for that.

The meeting takes place as the Bank of International Settlements warns that pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities and the sustainability of the AI boom are increasing global risks, underscoring the need for disciplined policymaking.

In technology news, shares in SK Hynix have turned positive, reversing steep losses after the group, alongside Samsung, unveiled trillion-dollar investment plans to build new fabs. Meanwhile, tension is brewing between Google and Meta, after the Alphabet-owned group said it will limit the social media giant’s use of its AI tool Gemini. That’s according to the Financial Times.

— Leonie Kidd

The AI boom is colliding with a new threat: severe weather

As Europeans scramble to stay cool amid a record-breaking heatwave, Big Tech faces its own battle to keep powerful chips in AI data centers running.

Temperatures this week have underscored the impact the weather can have on infrastructure like factories, nuclear power plants and data centers. Extra demand from air conditioning units can overload power grids, causing blackouts that can disrupt infrastructure. And it’s not just Europe.

Over the past three years, severe weather has become the leading cause of loss in Zurich‘s U.S. data center builders’ risk portfolio. It now drives a…

President Donald Trump again threatened Iran on Sunday with annihilation following U.S. attacks on Iranian military targets in retaliation for Tehran’s latest strikes on shipping in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s neighbors, Kuwait and Bahrain, reported incoming missiles and drones overnight.

“United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The U.S. military attacked a number of Iranian targets after a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was reported to have been struck by a projectile on Saturday.

The attacks were the latest escalation of tensions between the two countries in recent days, following an interim agreement meant to bring an end to hostilities in the region.

U.S. Central Command said early Sunday that fighter jets struck 10 Iranian military targets in and near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a drone strike on the Panamanian-flagged tanker, the M/T Kiku. The ship was transiting the strait with more than two million barrels of crude oil, CentCom said late Saturday.

“There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!,” Trump wrote.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to send Iran back to the “stone age”.

In an April Truth Social post, Trump threatened “a whole civilization will die tonight” and raised the specter of nuclear war. “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said in a post in May.

Iran said it struck U.S. military targets in Kuwait and Bahrain early Sunday following U.S. strikes on its coastal facilities.

Kuwait’s army said its air defenses were “confronting hostile missile and drone attacks”.

Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned “the renewed Iranian aggression against its territory, targeting it again with a number of ballistic missiles and drones, in a dangerous escalation”.

“What Tehran is doing is not a passing act, nor an isolated incident, but rather a deliberate approach and a systematic pattern of repeated aggression,” Bahrain’s statement added.

Despite the barrage of attacks, Central Command said commercial vessel transits through the critical waterway continue.

Oil prices extended declines on Friday as more tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for August settled down 4.34% at $71.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August declined 3.74% to end at $69.23 a…

A tanker in the Strait ⁠of Hormuz was reported to have been struck by a projectile on Saturday, the latest escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran in recent days following an interim agreement to end hostilities in the region.

The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre said a vessel in the strait was hit by an “unidentified projectile,” with damage to the bridge but the crew was reported to be safe. Bahrain also on Saturday condemned an Iranian drone strike as a “blatant violation” of its sovereignty.

The fresh attacks come as the U.S. and Iran are supposed to be engaging in a 60-day ceasefire as they hold talks to end their war. But both have accused the other of violating their end of the agreement.

The U.S. military struck Iran on Friday after President Donald Trump accused the Islamic Republic of “foolish violation” of a ceasefire agreement by launching drone attacks at ships in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said its aircraft “struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites.”

That comes after a drone attack by Iran on Thursday struck the Singapore-flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely in the strait off the coast of Oman, Central Command said in a post on X. The vessel continued on its way through the strait, a major thoroughfare for oil shipments.

Iran has not directly commented on reports of specific attacks on ships. However, state media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp had fired “warning shots” towards unspecified ships not approved by Iran attempting to pass through channels, Reuters reported.

The renewed attacks come more than a week after Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at developing a permanent peace deal to end the war between their two nations.

Vice President JD Vance traveled to Switzerland last weekend for talks with Iranian counterparts about that deal.

Vance, in a post on X on Friday, wrote, “Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We have honored it.”

“If they have disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone,” Vance wrote. “But violence will be met with violence.

Shortly before Central Command announced the retaliatory strikes on Friday, Trump was asked by a reporter at the White House if there would be consequences for Iran for violating the ceasefire.

“You’ll find out,” the president replied.

After the U.S. strikes, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said in a statement: “Following the violation of the ceasefire by the Zionist regime in southern Lebanon, a few hours ago, the treaty-breaking US regime, as always, violated its commitments and, under various pretexts, attacked the coasts of the Islamic Republic of Iran with an airstrike due to the passage of a violating ship through an…