Danone’s CEO told CNBC that inflationary pressures from the Iran war may force the company to consider price hikes as the outlook for conflict in the Middle East remains highly uncertain.

When asked if the company would be raising prices, CEO Antoine de Saint-Affrique said, “we are not there yet.”

“Nobody knows when [the war] is going to stop, and depending how the next two to four weeks are going to evolve, the outcome from a macroeconomic standpoint, is going to be very, very different,” he told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed.

“If it lasts for long enough, it will have an impact,” he added.

His comments come as companies increasingly take stock of how the war may impact their operations and cost base. 

The conflict in the Middle East has now entered its sixth week, with U.S. President Donald Trump turning up the tone on Iran over the weekend to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

The president on Monday said Iran has until 8 p.m. Eastern time to reopen the strategically important strait where normally a fifth of global oil supply passes through.  

The effective closure of the narrow passage has caused not only surging energy prices but also soaring fertilizer and shipping costs. 

“Higher costs will filter through at some point as price increases for commodities, agri-inputs, energy, packaging and transportation are passed on through supply chains,” ING economist Thijs Geijer told CNBC via email.

“Most economists and companies were anticipating a slowdown in food inflation. It’s clear that that won’t happen this year,” he added.

The Head of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva warned Monday that even if the conflict resolves soon, the Iran war will inevitably lead to higher inflation and weaker growth.

Earlier this month, Britain’s Food and Drink Federation (FDF) forecasted food inflation of at least 9% by the end of the year, revised upwards from an estimated 3.2% previously. That would be the highest annual food and non-alcoholic drink inflation since 2023. 

“Given the fast-changing nature of the situation, this revision is based on assumptions that the Strait of Hormuz opens to cargo traffic within the next two-three weeks and the majority of key facilities, such as oil, gas and fertiliser sites, return to normal within a year,” the FDF said on April 1. 

Danone reported a roughly 2.1% overall price increase in the fourth quarter,…

United Airlines hiked its checked bag fee by $10 on Thursday, becoming the second U.S. carrier in less than a week to raise the fee as the industry grapples with this year’s surge in fuel costs, airlines’ biggest expense after labor.

United’s new fee will be $45 to check a first bag on most domestic itineraries if the traveler pays ahead of time and $50 if they pay within 24 hours of their flight.

“United is raising first and second checked bag fees by $10 for customers traveling in the U.S., Mexico and Canada and Latin America beginning with tickets purchased Friday, April 3,” the carrier said.

United last raised checked bag fees in February 2024 and, like other carriers, is trying to cover the recent surge in jet fuel costs.

Fuel prices for Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York averaged $4.88 a gallon on Thursday nearly double the price since the day before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb.28, according to data from Argus published by industry group Airlines for America.

JetBlue Airways on Monday hiked its checked bag fees at least $4 per bag — and up to $9 per bag, depending on when a customer’s travel is booked — CNBC first reported.

Competitors often follow suit with such fee increases. There are loopholes, however. Airline credit cards often give customers a free checked bag when they’re on domestic itineraries in coach and it usually comes as a perk with elite frequent flyer status. Also, first-class seats generally include a free checked bag.

“United Chase credit card holders, MileagePlus Premier members, active military members and customers traveling in premium cabins can still check a bag for free, and customers in most markets will still enjoy a $5 discount if they prepay for their bags online 24 hours before their flight,” United said.

Higher fuel is showing up at gas stations and other sectors, too. Amazon is adding a 3.5% “fuel and logistics-related surcharge” to fees it collects from third-party sellers who use its fulfillment services, CNBC reported earlier Thursday.

— CNBC’s Annie Palmer contributed to this article.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Tuesday morning, as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates and continued to monitor developments in the Middle East.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell more than 3 basis points to 4.307%. Yields on the 2-year and 30-year Treasurys fell by more than 4 basis points and more than 1 basis point at 3.779% and 4.892%, respectively.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The U.S.-Iran war continues to hold the attention of investors across the globe. Elevated oil prices are fueling both inflation concerns and recessionary fears, thereby clouding the outlook for monetary policy trajectories.

Money markets are now overwhelmingly pricing in zero rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Last week, futures traders briefly pushed the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that he sees inflation expectations as grounded despite rising energy prices so the central bank doesn’t need to respond with higher interest rates.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday evening that Trump told aides he was willing to end U.S. military hostilities against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.

The waterway, a critical shipping route, has essentially been closed for the duration of the conflict, causing a supply glut in the oil market that has sent prices skyrocketing.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera in an interview published Monday that Washington’s objectives in Iran would take “weeks, not months” to achieve.

Retail firms are warning that the conflict in the Middle East is driving up costs and could lead to price hikes if the war continues beyond the short term. 

Instability in the Middle East region will not only restrain growth in the region but is also likely to have a knock-on effect on costs, selling prices, and consumer demand in the rest of the business, warned British retailer Next on Thursday. 

The company has accounted for £15 million ($20 million) of additional costs likely to arise from the conflict, such as fuel and air freight, assuming the disruption lasts for three months. Increased costs will not affect guidance as they have been offset by savings elsewhere, it added.

“Beyond the next three months, if we see these costs persist, then we will begin to pass costs through as higher pricing,” the company said early on Thursday as it reported results for the fiscal year ending January. The Middle East represents about 6% of Next’s total turnover. 

An extended war in the Gulf region could mean a double whammy for retailers as it may increase inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains, leading to an overall higher cost base. It could also hurt demand as consumers are increasingly squeezed by the increased cost of living, resulting in less spending on discretionary items. 

The Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil and gas prices soaring since the first strikes on Feb. 28, and has upended inflation forecasts in Europe and beyond. 

Companies’ price-hike expectations and wages for new hires were some of the key inflation indicators that the European Central Bank will monitor, its Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday.

H&M said Thursday that “current geopolitical instability in the Middle East could, if extended, result in slightly additional cost pressure.”

The Swedish retailer has a relatively low exposure to the Middle East, with about 3% of its stores in the region and a low share of air freight in its supply chain. 

“On a global scale, we don’t see any significant impact on the consumer behavior at this point in time, although we are very aware of that the consumer has been on a high inflationary pressure for a long period of time and increasing energy prices will have a spillover effect,” noted H&M CEO Daniel Ervér in a call with analysts following the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report Thursday. 

If the conflict is sustained, however, there could be a “significant impact” on consumer behavior, Ervér added, without giving further details on at what point an impact could be expected.

Analysts have said that discretionary-heavy retailers are more likely to be negatively impacted by the war, as it is adding uncertainty to an already weakened consumer.

H&M will invest in quality improvements, in-season buying, and competitive pricing to stay…

Brokers now forecast multiple European Central Bank interest rate hikes this year as the specter of higher inflation and lower growth piles pressure on central banks to act. 

J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Barclays all revised their forecasts on Thursday to anticipate future hikes after ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of a “significantly more uncertain” outlook with risks to inflation. 

As expected, the ECB held its key interest rate at 2% and remained noncommittal on future decisions, but analysts are taking a more hawkish tone. 

Barclays and J.P. Morgan expect as many as three rate hikes of 25 basis points each this year, with the banks penciling in increases in April, June and July, Reuters reported. This is a marked shift away from forecasts of unchanged rates for 2026 and would bring the ECB’s deposit rate to 2.75% by year-end.

Morgan Stanley expects ECB hikes at the bank’s June and September meetings, taking the rate to 2.5%.

Investors are scouring for hawkish clues in policymaker rhetoric. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel’s interview with Bloomberg News on Friday pointed to a potential April rate hike if the war continues and inflation reappears. 

“As things currently stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could deteriorate and inflation expectations could rise on a sustained basis, meaning that a more restrictive monetary policy stance would probably be necessary,” Nagel told Bloomberg.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 50% chance of an ECB hike in April, according to LSEG data. For a hike in June, that probability rises to 80%.

Others are calling for calm.

Former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition on Friday that the ECB is “very wise” to make a decision meeting-by-meeting, to assess the full facts. 

He also disagreed with the notion that Europe is reaching a point of stagflation, telling CNBC that the drop in growth is not yet “dramatic”. 

UBS economists expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged rather than tightening policy, which is “contrary to market expectations”, they wrote in a Thursday note. 

Ultimately, the main factor influencing central banks’ decisions is the duration of the war. 

“Any inflation spike will naturally act as a brake on economic growth, so it is important the ECB does not overtighten and keeps focus on the economic outlook,” said Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot.

“This is of course very difficult with such a moving picture in the Middle East and thus the outlook for interest rates is very much up in the air from here.”

Australia’s central bank on Tuesday raised benchmark policy rates for a second straight time, pushing them to their highest since April 2025 at 4.1%, amid sticky inflation.

The 25 basis points hike was in line with expectations from analysts polled by Reuters, and comes as Australia’s inflation stays above the central bank’s upper limit of 3%, with the war in the Middle East risking a further rise in prices.

“While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its statement.

The RBA also said while developments in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, they are likely to add to global and domestic inflation. The bank said that inflation was likely to remain above target for some time and that the risks have tilted further to the upside, warranting the rate hike.

The decision on the hike though, was passed by a narrow majority, with five votes in favor of the hike and four against.

The sentiment from the RBA echoes concerns raised by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who said in an interview last week that “we have a problem with inflation. It’s too high.”

Hauser said that the RBA’s projection is that inflation will only return to its 2%-3% target range by the end of 2026 or in 2027, and to the midpoint of that target range in 2028.

In February, the central bank had forecast headline inflation to peak at 4.2% around mid-2026, and then come down to “a little below 3%” by mid-2027.

These estimates, Hauser said, could be revised upwards, as they came before the oil shock owed to the Iran war.

Inflation in the country was at 3.6% for the quarter ended December. On monthly basis, inflation was at 3.8% in January, marginally surpassing expectations of 3.7%.

Economic growth in the country remains strong, with fourth-quarter GDP exceeding expectations at 2.6%, allowing the central bank room to keep rates elevated.

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 index was up 0.11% following the decision.

U.S. President Donald Trump has been using tariffs in creative ways: to stop drug trafficking (ostensibly), to preserve national security aims (purportedly) and, now, to hasten the legislative process in another country.

Trump on Monday said he would increase tariffs on some South Korean goods because of Seoul’s delay in implementing the trade deal with the U.S. struck in October. Duties on autos, pharmaceuticals and lumber would increase to 25% from 15%.

Even as the U.S. continues to erect barriers with its economic partners, others are building trade corridors among themselves.

India announced Monday that it had concluded negotiations over a trade deal with the European Union. The deal is expected to be formally signed in about six months and enter into force within a year, Reuters reported.

Belligerent moves by the U.S. could further estrange it from its allies and the global economy — a concern reflected in the U.S. Dollar Index, which is at its weakest since September, and in the continued surge in gold and silver prices.

U.S. equities, however, remain resilient, as investors positioned themselves ahead of Big Tech earnings. Apple, Meta, and Microsoft were major drivers of Monday’s market gains, and they are set to disclose their financial results for the previous quarter later this week.

Attention now turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will announce its interest rate decision in the coming days. While the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference could shed light on Trump’s attacks on Fed independence — and Trump might time his announcement of the next Fed Chair for the same day.

For investors, it adds another variable to a week already heavy with earnings, data and political noise.

Trump says he will raise certain tariffs on South Korea. Duties on imported autos, pharmaceuticals and lumber will go up to 25% from 15% because of a delay in South Korea’s legislature approving a trade deal with the U.S., Trump said Monday.

Nvidia invests $2 billion in CoreWeave. The chipmaker purchased CoreWeave Class A common stock at $87.20 per share, according to a release on Monday, a discount from Friday’s closing price of $92.98. Shares of CoreWeave jumped nearly 6% on Monday.

Memory chip shortage to last through 2027. That’s according to Sassine Ghazi, CEO of Synopsys, which designs semiconductor tools. Ghazi told CNBC last week that most of the memory from the top players “is going directly to AI infrastructure.”

Positive day for U.S. stocks. Major indexes rose Monday, on the back of gains in Apple, Meta and Microsoft, ahead of their earnings reports later in the week. The pan-European Stoxx 600 added 0.2%. ASML, LVMH and Deutsche Bank will report results this week.

[PRO] Behind silver’s new highs. The precious metal gained 5.9% on Monday, pushing the price…

Shares of South Korean autos tumbled Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at the country overnight, saying he would increase tariffs on Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

Trump said on Truth Social that the country’s legislature has not approved Seoul’s trade deal with Washington, and that tariffs on the South Korea will climb to 25%, from 15%.

Auto heavyweights Hyundai and Kia plunged as much as 4% and 5%, respectively, in South Korea.

The threat dented sentiment in South Korea’s Kospi, which dipped 0.36%, after clocking 15 days of gains out of the 17 sessions since the start of the year. Trump’s rhetoric did not seem to faze the small-cap Kosdaq, which climbed 1.41%.

Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 started the day 1.22% up, reaching its highest level in almost 3 months, and coming back from a holiday on Monday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.24%, while the Topix lost 0.31% on its open.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures were at 26,883, higher than the HSI’s last close of 26,765.52.

With both the producer price index and the consumer price index still showing accelerations, consumers may be wondering why the price of goods across the board isn’t increasing more.

But logistics experts are warning that those higher prices are currently hiding in “the middle mile,” otherwise known as warehouses and distribution centers, and are yet to come.

The Trump administration‘s back-and-forth on tariffs has had U.S. importers scrambling to pull forward their freight to mitigate those rates, with that inventory now sitting in warehouses.

Zachary Rogers, lead author of the Logistics Managers’ Index and assistant professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, explained during the Port of Los Angeles July news update that the increase in inventory is the reason why price increases related to the tariffs have not been seen across the board.

“We are seeing price increases right now in back-to-school kids’ apparel, toys, and things like that,” said Rogers. “But consumers haven’t seen the really big impact of any inflation yet because it is sitting in the middle mile (warehouses). I would expect that we will see inventories move down in September.”

Rogers said retailer inventories generally peak in the middle of October, but with the front-loading this year, warehouse capacity has moderately expanded as well as prices.

“Essentially, what this is telling us is peak season is happening in sort of a bifurcated way,” said Rogers.

Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson, told CNBC that peak season items, which will make their way onto store shelves for the holidays, were pushed two to three months earlier this year and are being stored. Comparing this peak season to last year, however, volumes are not as strong.

“We’ve seen customers that are actually having to bring that inventory into their own distribution centers, and they’re actually having to have to carry that cost,” said Short. “But whether that (warehouse costs) gets passed on to the end consumer or not, is really spread across the board, and that also goes with tariffs, carrying costs. It’s really across the board on what our customers are deciding to do.”

Short said they are having active conversations with clients on how to manage their inventory and bring in their freight in a timely and efficient manner.

“We’ve seen with our customers is, instead of the supply chain expense being a line item in their P and L (profit and loss statement), it’s becoming a boardroom C-level conversation,” said Short.

The pulling forward of freight may have been a mitigation tool to avoid higher tariffs, but warehouse space has gotten tighter as a result, which has also increased prices..

Karl Siebrecht, CEO of flexible warehouse firm Flexe, said that across the company’s enterprise and mid-market customers, they are seeing…