Oil was struggling for direction Thursday as traders weighed OPEC‘s lower demand outlook for this year, while the International Energy Agency flagged greater volatility ahead.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July were down 0.21% at $105.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June fell 0.16% at $100.87 per barrel. Both had started the day marginally higher.

OPEC cut its demand growth estimates for 2026 to about 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.4 million bpd previously, in its latest monthly update. OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April and has declined more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd since the start of the Iran war in late February.

OPEC’s latest update is expected to be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which exited the cartel on May 1.

The International Energy Agency‘s on Wednesday also highlighted the impact of the Iran war on oil supply. “More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said. 

With more than 14 million bpd of supply cut, the overall loss from Gulf producers is now over a billion barrels, the IEA said, adding that greater price volatility is likely as peak summer demand approaches.

“The duration of elevated fuel prices remains a subject of intense discussion and is closely tied to ongoing geopolitical developments surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East from further conflict,” ING analysts said in a note.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be closely watched by traders.

Former US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Wednesday that China wants the conflict to end as it’s the biggest customer of oil that flows via the Hormuz Strait. “President Xi wants this war to be over as much as President Trump does.”

— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct the day to Thursday.

BP‘s oil trading desk enjoyed “exceptional” performance during the first quarter, the energy giant said on Tuesday, thanks to a windfall from the surge in oil prices since the start of the Iran war in late February.

The trading statement, published ahead of official results due later this month, came after a similar update from rival Shell last week.

But BP also told investors its net debt at the end of the first quarter was expected to be in the range of $25-27 billion, up from $22.2 billion in the fourth quarter, due to the need for increased working capital amid a more volatile price environment.

BP’s first-quarter results are due to be published on April 28.

Oil majors like BP and its peers are expected to see significant windfalls on the back of the U.S.-Iran war which has choked global supplies and sent oil and gas prices rocketing. Remarking on recent trading conditions, BP noted that Brent crude averaged $81.13 per barrel (bbl) in the first quarter of 2026 compared to $63.73/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2025.

As of Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures for May delivery were trading around $97 a barrel, while international benchmark Brent for June delivery was trading around $98.6/bbl.

Global markets are hanging on to hopes that peace talks between the U.S. and Tehran can resume after U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran would “like to make a deal very badly.”

Separately, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Monday that the next steps in U.S.-Iran peace efforts now depend on Tehran, after talks at the weekend failed to produce a breakthrough.

News agency Reuters reported on Tuesday morning that talks could resume in Islamabad as soon as this week, according to sources.

The U.S. on Monday began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz oil passage, saying it would block all ships trying to enter or exit Iranian ports.

Trump was asked on Monday if the goal of the blockade was to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or come to the negotiating table. “Both of those things, certainly, and more,” the president replied.

India has warned that its growth forecast of 7.0%–7.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 faces “considerable downside” risk due to rising energy costs and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Iran war.

The conflict, which began on Feb. 28 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has disrupted goods movement through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway carrying 20% of global oil — driving up energy and freight costs and straining supply chains.

“The trade deficit will rise significantly” in the next financial year ending March 2027 and will lead to “widening [of] the current account deficit,” India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran wrote in ‌the ⁠report published Saturday.

“Keeping it manageable will require burden-sharing between the government, via fiscal absorption, and households and businesses,” he said. However, the pass-through of higher import prices to end-users “will also moderate demand growth,” said Nageswaran.

So far, the Indian government has shown little inclination to pass the rising energy costs to consumers. On Thursday, it cut central excise duties on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each to prevent pump prices from rising as the Iran war disrupts global energy supplies.

The government also raised duties on exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman saying it was done to “ensure adequate availability of these products for domestic consumption.”

“This will provide protection to consumers from a rise in prices,” Sitharaman said in a post on X on Friday. This move will hurt India’s tax revenues, India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said Friday.

A note from global brokerage Nomura on Saturday said that if crude oil prices “remain elevated,” pump prices will eventually be increased, but added that such a move is likely to happen “after the state elections, which are scheduled for April, with the final results on 4 May.”

India relies on supplies from the Strait of Hormuz for about 50% of its crude oil needs, according to Citi, and imports most of its liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG — the primary cooking fuel for both commercial establishments and households — through this route.

Alternative supplies of crude and liquified natural gas, or LNG, are available but come with delays and higher costs, the finance ministry’s monthly report said. It added that LPG is far harder to replace because nearly all of it comes from conflict‑hit regions and domestic refinery yields are very low.

“If demand moderates in response to higher prices, the central bank will be more inclined to treat the inflationary impact as a supply shock,” Nageswaran added. The RBI will announce its…

Germany’s Volkswagen on Tuesday reported a sharp drop in annual operating profit and flagged another tough year ahead as the auto giant continues to grapple with U.S. tariffs and competition in China.

Europe’s biggest carmaker posted 2025 operating profit of 8.9 billion euros ($10.4 billion), down 53% from the year prior, citing U.S. tariffs, currency effects and a strategic shift at Porsche. Analysts had expected annual operating profit to come in at 9.4 billion euros, according to LSEG consensus data.

Full-year revenue held steady at nearly 322 billion euros, compared to 324.7 billion euros in 2024, and the company’s outlook for sales growth is relatively modest in 2026. Volkswagen said it expects revenue to develop in a range between 0% to 3% this year, falling short of analyst expectations.

The company also said it anticipates an operating margin of between 4% and 5.5% in 2026, after coming in at 2.8% in 2025, down from 5.9% a year earlier.

Arno Antlitz, chief operating officer and chief financial officer at Volkswagen, described 2025 as a “really challenging” year but said the company remains “well positioned” in Europe.

“We increased our market share slightly despite increased Chinese competition. In electric vehicles, we even achieved a market share of more than 25%, 27%, so more than in the combustion engine segment,” Antlitz told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on Tuesday.

Shares of Volkswagen rose 4% during early morning deals. The stock is down more than 12% year-to-date.

The results come as Europe’s automakers struggle to get to grips with a series of industry challenges, including robust competition from Chinese car brands and U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariffs.

The automotive sector is widely regarded as acutely vulnerable to U.S. tariffs, particularly given the high globalization of supply chains and the heavy reliance on manufacturing operations across North America.

Asked about the sprawling Middle East crisis and the potential impact on the company given heightened oil price volatility, Volkswagen’s Antlitz said: “This crisis is obviously concerning for all our partners and customers in the region and their families.”

He added: “In terms of effect on our business, so far it is limited. In terms of oil or gas or energy, we have long-term contracts so we are basically hedged on that side and currently we also do not see major supply constraints.”

Alphabet‘s rare 100-year sterling bond is the latest sign of late-cycle exuberance in credit markets, strategists say, as tech hyperscalers ramp up borrowing to historic levels to fund vast data center and AI infrastructure buildouts.

The century bond — the Google-owner’s debut issuance in sterling — is part of a broader multi-tranche, multi-currency borrowing drive totaling some $20 billion. The offering spans maturities across dollars, euros and sterling, and includes a debut bond in Swiss francs.

Century bonds remain rare, and are more commonly associated with governments than corporate borrowers. Demand typically comes from large institutional investors such as pension funds and insurers seeking to match long-term liabilities.

Alphabet joins a small group of sterling-denominated century bond issuers, including the University of Oxford, the Wellcome Trust, EDF Energy and the government of Mexico.

The 100-year bond attracted almost 10 times orders for the £1 billion ($1.37 billion) sale on Tuesday, with the coupon reaching 120 basis points above 10-year gilts, according to a report from Bloomberg, which cites anonymous sources.

Bill Blain, CEO of Wind Shift Capital, said the deal is reflective of the “off-the-historical scale” levels of debt now being raised in both public and private markets to finance AI expansion.

Alphabet said last week that its capex spend is expected to hit $185 billion this year.

“I give them full credit for taking advantage of the opportunity that existed to sell a moderately high coupon 100-year bond,” Blain told CNBC in an interview. “They clearly identified demand… that this was what U.K. insurance and pension funds wanted to cover their liabilities.”

But with credit spreads at historically tight levels, long-term data center demand uncertain, and rapid technological change set to create winners and losers in the sector, Blain said the deal offers further proof of market froth around AI.

“Firms that have spotted the opportunity and been able to fill it — they’ve spotted the opportunity because there is froth there that’s getting people excited about being involved in that,” he said.

“I think the fact that a 100-year bond comes out, you can’t get much more frothy than that. If you’re looking for a signal of a top — even if it’s a brilliantly-executed deal — it does look a bit like a signal of a top, absolutely.”

As rivals including Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft also scale up infrastructure spending — with tech giants’ total debt issuance predicted to reach some $3 trillion over five years — strategists say the century bond also broadens Alphabet’s lender base.

“It’s interesting that Alphabet is lining up this GBP issuance at the very long end of the market to fund their AI capex,” said Nachu Chockalingam, head of London credit at Federated Hermes. “They are looking to tap into insurance and pension demand, and diversity funding sources to…

India’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, matching forecasts from economists polled by Reuters.

The monetary policy committee delivered a unanimous reduction, citing “weakness in some key economic indicators,” even as headline inflation has eased significantly and is expected to be revised lower in the first quarter of 2025, said RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

The economy expanded 8.2% from July to September, outpacing expectations, while inflation remains subdued.

RBI’s Malhotra, explaining the rationale for keeping rates unchanged at the last policy meeting in October, warned that although inflation moderated significantly in the first quarter, growth could still slow in the second half of the financial year due to global trade uncertainties.

Still, industrial activity in October fell to a 14-month low, and indicators such as HSBC’s manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in November, suggesting an economic slowdown.

Exports to the U.S., one of India’s major trading partners, fell for a second straight month in October, sliding 8.5% from a year earlier to $6.3 billion. Overall outbound shipments in October also fell 11.8% to $34.38 billion.

Washington has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods since August. To offset the impact of the tariffs, New Delhi cut goods and services tax rates in September ahead of a month-long festive season to lift domestic demand.

GST tax collections showed a sharp improvement in October to 1.95 trillion rupees ($21.7 billion), up 4.6% from a year earlier, but the growth was muted in November with gross collection of 1.7 trillion rupees, a modest 0.7% increase.

The Indian rupee has weakened against the dollar in recent days, slipping past the important 90-rupee-per-dollar level on Wednesday before paring losses.

Despite a policy rate cut earlier this year, there has not been a “major pick up in bank lending,” said Sanjay Mathur, ANZ’s Chief Economist for India and Southeast Asia. He added that while there is also no clarity on the conclusion of a U.S.-India trade deal, the impact of tariffs is visible on the economy.

In April, U.S. President Donald Trump enacted sweeping tariffs of varying rates affecting more than 180 countries and territories. Last week, the U.S. and China struck a deal to temporarily suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods. The U.S. also recently unveiled a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. 

Despite the recent trade agreements and deals, consumers still face an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.8%, the highest since 1934, according to a recent report by the Yale Budget Lab. 

James Lee, president of the Identity Theft Resource Center, said it’s not unusual for scammers to take a government action — whether that’s a new program or policy — and use it for the basis of a scam.

Scammers “will use the fact that people don’t know a lot about tariffs,” Lee said.

The PreCrime Labs team at BforeAI, a cybersecurity company, discovered about 300 domain registrations from cybercriminals related to tariffs in the first few months of the year. Some spread misinformation while others are financial scams aimed at businesses and consumers.

One site the company found was a newly registered phishing domain positioned to lead consumers to believe they are required to make payments to a legitimate governmental entity.

“Such payment requests are likely to be spread using email or messaging campaigns with a theme of urgent, pending payments, directing victims to the fraudulent site where their actions will result in financial losses,” researchers noted.

There are some cases where consumers might legitimately pay for products purchased from another country, namely, customs duties. Sometimes the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will charge consumers a processing fee in order to release an imported good. 

“That’s not common, but it’s also not unusual,” said Lee. “It really does depend on what it is, where it’s coming from.”

Some consumers have also recently reported receiving legitimate payment requests from carrier companies after a purchase in order to receive their shipments, the Washington Post reports.

Some carriers are acting as the importer of record, meaning they are responsible for any duties, taxes and fees that are applied to the delivery, said Bernie Hart, vice president of customs of Flexport, a logistics firm.

If the carrier did not collect those additional fees for the product up front, the carrier will charge the end consumer those additional costs through a follow-up bill, he said.

This tactic might not last, because it creates a lot of inconvenience for both companies and shoppers, Hart said: “It’s not good for anybody in this process to give somebody a surprise bill.”