Despite President Donald Trump‘s promises of a manufacturing boom in his second administration, two Democratic senators are arguing in a letter to the administration — and shared first with CNBC — that the president’s policies have created more hardship for U.S. workers.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., wrote on Monday to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, questioning Trump’s trade policy and asking all three to explain the country’s growing trade deficit on manufactured goods. 

“Blue-collar jobs are disappearing, a trend that economists blame at least in part on the president’s historic and volatile tariff policy,” the lawmakers wrote. “The Trump Administration’s trade agenda has favored the interests of wealthy corporations and Trump allies, leaving manufacturing workers behind.”

Spokespeople for Greer, Bessent and Lutnick did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kelly and Warren have both been stridently opposed to Trump’s tariffs, arguing, along with most congressional Democrats, that they amount to a tax on U.S. consumers. 

Those tariffs, which were meant to boost U.S. manufacturing, have also led to manufacturing job reductions since Trump took office in 2025 and rejiggered the country’s trade policy, according to a February analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Democrats on the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. That panel, on which Kelly sits, found that the U.S. economy lost 108,000 manufacturing jobs in the first year of Trump’s second term.

Total construction spending on manufacturing is also down since a peak in summer 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And, Warren and Kelly wrote, Trump’s tariffs have not prevented the offshoring of jobs. They cited John Paulson, a Trump ally who is shutting his Ohio brass instrument manufacturing plant and moving operations to China, and Whirlpool, which has cut nearly 500 jobs since Trump’s tariffs took effect and is expanding its footprint in Mexico.

Meanwhile, as the U.S.’s overall trade deficit with the world narrowed in 2025, the trade deficit in physical goods hit a record high, according to data released by the Census Bureau in February.

“President Trump’s disastrous trade and economic policies have hurt American manufacturing, breaking the President’s promises to workers and the public,” Warren and Kelly wrote.

The Supreme Court in February struck down a majority of Trump’s tariffs — which he imposed citing a 1977 federal law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — though the president responded by issuing a new set of import taxes using a different statutory authority. And he’s continued to threaten and sporadically impose tariffs where he perceives trade…

Rising oil prices may not just be a headwind to President Donald Trump’s fight to lower inflation. They could also undermine his signature legislative achievement. 

Almost all of the economic effect of the individual tax cuts in the “big beautiful bill” — from both smaller withholdings and sweetened tax refunds — could be erased if oil prices remain elevated by more than $20 compared with prices before the U.S.-Iran war, according to Raymond James. 

“With the $25 move last week, if the oil price stays here, it essentially offsets the fiscal benefit from the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act],” strategist Tavis McCourt wrote in a note.

McCourt’s analysis relies on applying any increase in oil market prices to the more than $420 billion that consumers spent on gasoline in the fourth quarter of 2025. He told CNBC in an interview that in his calculations he accounted for both potential reduced demand due to higher prices and companies’ need to pad margins. 

That leads him to conclude that a $20 move in oil prices could mean consumers spending $150 billion more at the pump. The Tax Foundation estimates that the individual tax cuts from the “big beautiful bill” total $129 billion for 2025, with the overwhelming majority of it set to appear through tax refunds this filing season. 

U.S. oil before the war on Feb. 27 closed at $67.02. As of Tuesday morning, after a major whiplash in prices on Monday, oil is still trading more than $20 a barrel higher at $88.20.

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, said in an interview Monday that her estimations for the hit consumers could take with elevated oil prices are also similar to the elevated spending she projected from the tax law. Wolfe said in a Tuesday note, though, that oil prices would need to remain above $100 for some time for that to happen.

“In all these scenarios, it has to last longer than it is now,” Roth said. “The impact on gas prices so far has been short-lived, and modest compared to how it may ultimately play out.”

But it will take time for oil prices to come down after the end of the war. Trump said in an interview with a CBS News reporter on Monday that the war is “very complete,” though he didn’t give a timeline for the war’s end in a press conference the same day.

McCourt noted that after the Gulf War in 1990 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it took about six months for oil prices to get back to levels where they were before. 

Consequences of weaker stimulus

Fiscal stimulus from the tax law was expected to boost the economy in 2026, with some economists predicting a reacceleration of U.S. growth partially thanks to the law. 

Now, an oil price shock is hitting right as consumers are set to get those tax refunds. Citadel Securities last week estimated that only 30% of refunds had been distributed by…

Although inflation is cooling, President Donald Trump’s new tariff rates are threatening to drive prices higher, which could leave some parents in a bind amid the back-to-school shopping season.

Families are now paying more for some key back-to-school essentials, such as backpacks, ahead of the new school year. CNBC used the producer price index — a closely followed measure of inflation — to track how the costs of making certain items that students need changed between 2019 and 2025.

In the face of more expensive gear, many families are prepared to cut back.

Back-to-school spending for K-12 students is estimated to reach a collective $30.9 billion, or an average of roughly $570 per child this year, according to a new 2025 back-to-school retail survey by Deloitte. However, that is down from $586 in 2024, even with higher prices across categories. Deloitte polled more than 1,200 parents in May.

“This season, we’re expecting families to approach back-to-school season with a bit of caution as some concern about the economy and their own personal financial situations are top of mind,” said Brian McCarthy, a principal in Deloitte’s retail strategy & analytics practice.

Trump’s initial “liberation day” tariff agenda, which set a 10% baseline levy for nearly all countries as well as much higher duties on dozens of nations, was set for April 2, but those higher rates were paused for 90 days. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order delaying the tariff deadline until Aug. 1.

The full effect of steep new tariffs hasn’t been felt by shoppers yet, according to Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation.

“However, if the large increases in tariffs announced earlier this year take effect and are sustained, they will infiltrate consumer prices, causing a downshift in spending,” he said in a July 8 blog post.

“Economic fundamentals appear solid at this juncture, but uncertainty is pervasive,” Kleinhenz said. 

Concerns over inflation, potential tariffs and product shortages are already pushing consumers to change their back-to-school shopping habits, reports also show.

According to Deloitte, 75% of parents said they will switch brands if their preferred brand is too expensive, up from 62% in 2024; 65% will shop at affordable retailers over their preferred stores.

And, 56% are cutting back on non-essential purchases altogether to save money, according to data from Intuit Credit Karma.

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Nearly two-thirds, or 62%, of shoppers also said they’ll begin back-to-school shopping before August, a significant…