The Trump administration this week sparked enthusiasm that the U.S. and Iran could soon strike a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, driving down oil prices and sending stocks soaring — only for no deal to emerge.

If that sounds familiar, it may be because President Donald Trump has claimed dozens of times that the U.S. is close to an agreement that will end the war it began more than five months ago.

Investors have reacted to many of those claims with bursts of buying on hopes a breakthrough is near, even as the war instead appears to be widening and progress on Trump’s chief stated goal — containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions — is at a standstill.

“There’s tremendous optimism bias in the market,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.

Markets continue to assume incentives for both the U.S. and Iran favor a diplomatic end to the war. But some investors seem to “see a deal as a time machine” that will reset the Middle East to its prewar status quo, even though that’s unlikely to happen, Croft said.

The conflict of late centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the global oil trade that has became a source of major leverage for Iran.

Tehran’s ability to effectively close the strait — an open, un-tolled international waterway before the war started — triggered a global energy supply shock that drove up gas prices, exacerbated inflation and raised alarms about oil reserves.

Even those who believe diplomacy remains a viable path to peace acknowledge the future of the strait presents an intractable problem.

“There still appears to be a fundamental difference over the fate of Hormuz: Iran wants to impose a service fee, while the US wants the pre-war situation restored, i.e., international, free waters in the Strait,” Claudio Galimberti, partner and chief economist at Rystad Energy, said by email.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on this article.

The oil market is eager for any hint of progress toward reopening the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided a major dose of optimism Tuesday morning when he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that a deal to ensure “freedom of movement” in the strait could come in a matter of hours.

“We are in talks with the Iranians,” Bessent said. “There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”

Oil prices tumbled right after Bessent’s remarks, while stocks blasted higher and bold yields pulled back, as investors’ optimism coincided with an AI-fueled tech rally.

Crude prices remain highly elevated from their prewar levels, however, as traders bounce between hope for a durable solution in the strait and bracing for a military escalation by the U.S.

The market “remains…

Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

U.S. President Donald Trump had said a deal with Tehran could come by Thursday stateside. There are a few more hours left, but given the rhetoric from Iran, that timeline will likely pass without an agreement.

From geopolitical worries to markets: SpaceX rose after the first tranche of its locked-up shares expired Thursday, increasing the volumes available for trading.

SoftBank shares fell even as it reported a profit beat on the back of gains from its Intel stake and a higher valuation for ByteDance.

Iran reportedly revealed its plan for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. and Israeli vessels barred from using the waterway.

The restrictions will extend to “countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran” until that harm is “compensated,” according to a report from state media Fars.

Washington rejected that plan, with a U.S. official telling CNBC that any temporary routes will be without any impediments: “no approvals or permissions and no tolls or charges.”

Oil prices climbed on this development, having declined earlier this week. Brent futures climbed 3.8% to close at $82.49 per barrel Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained about 2.8% to settle at $77.29. Oil was trading over 1% higher on Friday in Asia trading.

Oil is not the only key commodity that’s seeing an upsurge. Copper, the red metal used for construction, electronics, transportation and in AI applications, rose to a record high of around $6.90 a pound Thursday, due to supply constraints and a rising demand for electrification.

Away from Iran, the focus will be on SpaceX as its first tranche of locked-up shares have become available for trading, with the stock rising on Thursday. Shares are about 50% off its high from mid-June.  

Elsewhere in the tech sector, Softbank shares came under pressure, extending losses and dipping nearly 5% in early trade Friday, as an earnings beat failed to lift investor sentiment on the AI play.

— Lim Hui Jie

From birth to brokerage: Why South Korea is seeing a surge in infant investment accounts

South Korean parents are ramping up efforts to give their children a head start in building long-term wealth by opening investment accounts even before they learn to crawl out of their cribs.

Brokerage accounts of kids under the age of one have nearly tripled from a year ago to about 15,000 in June at Mirae Asset Securities, the country’s largest brokerage by market cap.

New accounts openings for…

The U.S. military said the Strait of Hormuz was open for all commercial vessels to transit, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that an Iran deal is close.

U.S. Central Command said the “southern route of the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open” in a post on X, highlighting that it had assisted more than 1,000 vessels in transiting the waterway despite “unwarranted” Iranian aggression.

The southern route passes through Omani territorial waters, rather than the part closer to Iran.

The announcement comes as oil prices also fell sharply Tuesday, following remarks by U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent that there may be a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as this week.

“We are in talks with the Iranians,” Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”

Brent, the international oil benchmark, climbed 0.43% on Wednesday to $79.7 per barrel after sliding 5.3% the day before. West Texas Intermediate futures inched up 0.21% to trade at $75.95, after falling 5.7% the day before.

After Bessent’s remarks, a senior Middle East diplomat with direct knowledge of the talks between Iran and Oman told MS NOW that a great deal of pressure is being brought to bear on Oman by the U.S. and European countries to accept a temporary agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

MS NOW has also been told by a a senior Pakistan government official that a document on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is “close to being finalized.”

The source, who didn’t want to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the topic, added that the talks were being held between Iran and Oman whilst being mediated by Pakistan – with the U.S involved “indirectly.”

Reuters said the Army has depleted most of its stockpile of Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles, and CNN reported that the the US military has exhausted nearly 80% of its interceptors for its THAAD missile defense system, used to defend against ballistic missile strikes.

In response, U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington has “far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need,”…

The U.S. and Iran could reach a deal on Tuesday or Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with freedom of movement for commercial ships, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview.

“We are in talks with the Iranians,” Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”

The Treasury Secretary said the deal would allow freedom of movement in the strait when asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge a toll.

“It would be freedom of movement,” Bessen staid. “Even though things are still a little dicey there over the past few days, we saw quite a few ships coming out even now.”

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

The Senate appears ready to advance the nomination of Todd Blanche to be the next attorney general after Sen. John Cornyn struck a deal to formally end the “anti-weaponization fund” to compensate President Donald Trump‘s political allies.

A spokeswoman for Cornyn, R-Texas, confirmed the deal Monday in a statement to CNBC.

“Sen. Cornyn has reached an agreement with the Department of Justice, which will be issuing a formal order permanently terminating the anti-weaponization fund and making clear in a binding written document that the scope of the audit settlement is limited to only the plaintiffs, including the President, and the IRS,” the spokesperson, Natalie Yezbick, said.  

Blanche, who is the acting attorney general, posted a set of documents overnight that he said were formally ending the fund that had ground his nomination to a halt. Senators on the Judiciary Committee, including Cornyn and Sen Thom Tillis, R-N.C., had warned the fund could result in payouts to violent rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and vowed to block Blanche until it was dead.

The documents showed Blanche had formally rescinded the order that created the fund in May, while clarifying aspects of the May settlement of Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service that created the fund.

The DOJ also clarified aspects of that deal, which created broad immunity from tax audits for the president and members of his family.

The documents say the settlement applies “only retroactively,” meaning it would not protect the president and his family indefinitely from audit. The DOJ also said the order would affect “named parties” in Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS, including on release of any claims.

The Senate Judiciary Committee is set to vote on Blanche’s nomination on Tuesday after delaying a previously planned vote due to concerns about the fund.

President Donald Trump said early Sunday he has canceled a planned attack on Iran following a request by Tehran and its regional neighbors.

“We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

He said that the agreement would include the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” Trump added. “The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment.”

He said the U.S. remains ready to strike Iran forcefully and is “is locked and loaded and ready to go”.

Iran’s Fars International state news agency said via its Telegram channel Sunday that Trump’s demands amounted to a “wish list“.

U.S. media reports had said that Trump was preparing for a fresh round of strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, as hopes of a negotiated end to the war that began on Feb. 28 receded and energy prices climbed.

On Saturday, a number of U.S. Embassies in the Middle East warned American citizens in the region to exercise caution and be prepared for flight cancellations amid growing tensions between Iran and the United States.

Embassies in Iraq, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates each warned U.S. citizens to consider leaving the region immediately, or be prepared to depart should there be an escalation in fighting.

The warnings came after a tanker near Oman reported being struck late Friday, with another saying it saw an explosion nearby. Iran has warned Washington that the U.S. military’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would result in the closure of key shipping routes.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his Saudi counterpart in a phone call on Saturday that any “aggression” by the U.S. and Israel or participation of regional countries will be met with a “decisive and proportionate response,” according to Araqchi’s Telegram account.

A temporary ceasefire following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran on June 17 has effectively broken down. Neither side has given way on key sticking points, including Iran’s nuclear program and control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,…

NBCUniversal’s announcement this week that it’s struck a content deal with YouTube Premium could jump-start a new chapter of the streaming wars — one that could be titled, “Aggregation.”

Under the agreement, which starts early next year, YouTube Premium subscribers in the U.S. will get Peacock Premium baked into their subscription. Peacock content, including wildly popular shows like “Love Island USA” and the Real Housewives franchise, will be available directly via YouTube — as will NBC’s portfolio of live sports like the NFL and NBA.

At launch, YouTube Premium’s $15.99-per-month price won’t change. Customers will get Peacock Premium content for no additional charge.

YouTube Premium — the platform’s subscription, ad-free video product — is separate from YouTube TV, its bundle of live TV networks. The company says there are 125 million global users of YouTube Premium. It doesn’t break out U.S. subscribers.

The deal cements a new strategy for NBCUniversal — agreeing to a streaming wholesale deal with a distribution partner that ingests Peacock content. NBCU did a similar deal with Apple TV late last year, but that bundle required customers to opt into the offering, at a cost of $14.99 per month as opposed to $12.99 per month just for Apple TV. The YouTube deal allows its existing subscriber base to get access to all Peacock content instantly without paying any more money.

NBCU’s decision to allow Peacock content to appear on other streaming services could serve as a template for other media companies.

“Other strategies are a little more walled gardens,” Comcast co-CEO Mike Cavanagh said during the company’s earnings conference call last week, referring to other media companies. “Our approach is to build great businesses that serve our own platforms, but look for opportunities to partner.”

The point of the deal for NBCU, which is set be to spun off as a separate publicly traded company from Comcast next year, is to get Peacock in front of more eyeballs. There’s a large, younger audience that spends most of its “TV” time on YouTube. Now these people can stumble upon NBCU programming in their viewing ecosystem of choice — translating into more advertising revenue. 

For YouTube, the deal means a more…