SpaceX options on their first day of trading showed about a 15% chance for the stock to rise by 50% and a similar possibility that it loses half its value in the next three months, according to Susquehanna.

The stock saw the fifth-highest call volume of the day, Susquehanna strategist Chris Murphy wrote in a note Tuesday.

“The largest trades increasingly looked like hedges tied to future supply risk,” Murphy wrote. “Upside calls reflect demand for another sharp move higher, while downside puts reflect concern around lock-up supply, valuation risk, and the possibility that the initial post-listing enthusiasm fades. The result is a difficult trading setup. The tails look too expensive to buy, but they also look too dangerous to sell.”

SpaceX’s stock rose for another day after its initial public offering on Friday — it’s up about 50% from its IPO price — and its market cap has surpassed Amazon and is close to Microsoft’s valuation. The options reflect a vigorous debate about whether the company can live up to the initial enthusiasm.

Current pricing implies about a 15% probability that SpaceX rises another 50% by September, while also implying roughly a 13% chance the stock falls 50%, Murphy wrote.

Investors are “trading the story, they’re trading the action, they’re trading the excitement, they’re trading Elon Musk, but at some point the rubber meets the road in terms of the fundamentals having to match up with that excitement,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

“If they can deliver, then the upside is certainly there, but the valuation is so enormous that the company is going to really have to show itself in growing into that valuation,” he added. “I think that that’s going to take at least a couple of years.”

The CEO of one of France’s biggest engineering groups told CNBC that Europe mustn’t rely on U.S. infrastructure, warning of “dangerous” over-reliance on infrastructure like Elon Musk‘s Starlink.

“There [are] two things for the future where we need [Europe to] realize how big it is. This is AI, and this is satellite,” Bouygues CEO Olivier Roussat told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“Europe doesn’t realize exactly how dangerous it is to just rely on the American infrastructure.”

Paris-based Bouygues does business in the construction sector, transport, and telecommunications.

The company is fronting telecoms consolidation attempts in France, where operators have engaged in intense price competition, which has put pressure on their bottom lines.

“It’s not sure that we absolutely need to get a Starlink or something like this,” Roussat said, adding that Europe needs something “to get some sovereignty.”

Starlink, a division of the Musk-run company SpaceX, currently dominates the global satellite internet service and operates a constellation of around 10,000 satellites. SpaceX is planning to list on Nasdaq in what could be the biggest IPO ever.

Roussat pointed to Europe’s vulnerability to a non-state actor, like Starlink, having the power to single-handedly cut off the continent’s connectivity.

In April, Bouygues made a cash bid for the largest share in rival operator SFR for a total deal value of 20.35 billion euros ($23.6 billion), in what would be the largest European telecoms deal in recent years. In a joint bid with peers Free–iliad Group and Orange, Bouygues Telecom would get a 42% stake in SFR.

SFR is the second biggest telecoms operator in France, and an acquisition would cut the number of network operators in the country from four to three.

Regulatory scrutiny lies ahead, and the bidders will need clearance from antitrust authorities in order to move ahead, testing the European Commission’s appetite for consolidation in an already crowded telecoms market in Europe.

“The game for them [the European Commission] is to set up conditions where we will have a fair competition between us, and I think it’s possible,” Roussat said Thursday.

China has called the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz a “dangerous and irresponsible act” that will further enflame tensions in the region.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Tuesday that the targeted blockade of the vital shipping channel, which began at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, coupled with an increase in U.S. military deployment, risks undermining an “already fragile ceasefire situation.”

Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a press conference that only a full ceasefire can help ease the situation, adding that Beijing would make efforts to help restore peace and stability in the Middle East.

China — which has long backed the regime in Tehran — has a key interest in the Strait being reopened, with Beijing being the largest buyer of Iranian crude. The blockade directly cuts off that supply and potentially has a far-reaching impact on the Chinese economy.

The U.S. began preventing ships from entering and exiting Iranian ports in the vital waterway on Monday in a bid to force Iran to reopen the waterway, after peace talks in Islamabad faltered over the weekend.

The measure marks a sharp escalation in the conflict despite a pause in hostilities agreed April 7.

The spokesman also dismissed reports of China supplying weapons to Islamic Republic as “completely made up.”

“China believes that only by achieving a comprehensive ceasefire and ending the war can we fundamentally create conditions for easing the situation in the strait,” he said in a statement.

“China urges all parties to abide by the ceasefire arrangements, focus on the general direction of dialogue and peace talks, take practical actions to promote the easing of the regional situation, and restore normal traffic in the strait as soon as possible.”

Oil prices retreated below $100 a barrel on Tuesday amid reports of diplomatic resolution to the six-week conflict. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was about 1% lower in early trade at $98.44, while prices of U.S. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery was 2.6% lower, at $96.48 per barrel.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday reportedly warned the U.K. that it would be “very dangerous” for the country to do business with China, after London and Beijing announced steps aimed at mending ties.

After years of strained relations, China and the U.K. are looking to develop a long-term strategic partnership following a high-stakes meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Starmer is on a 4-day visit to China, the first trip by a British prime minister in eight years, signaling an attempt at resetting bilateral ties.

On the sidelines of premiere of the “Melania” film at the Kennedy Center, Trump was asked to comment on Starmer’s efforts to get into business with China, and he said that “it’s very dangerous for them to do that,” Reuters reported.

China on Thursday agreed to halve its import tariffs on British whisky to 5% from 10% and confirmed visa-free travels for British nationals visiting China for under 30 days, according to Downing Street. Meanwhile, British drugmaker AstraZeneca will invest $15 billion in China through 2030.

Starmer has brought a delegation of nearly 60 British business executives and organization leaders on this trip. He hailed the agreements on visa-free travel and lowering whisky tariffs as “really important access, symbolic of what we’re doing with the relationship.

U.K.’s diplomatic shift appears to mirror that of Canada which signed a trade agreement with China earlier this month following a visit by Prime Minister Mark Carney, as Ottawa appears to diversify trade and investment partners amid persistent frictions with Washington.

On Canada, Trump said that “it’s even more dangerous for Canada to get into business with China. Canada is not doing well … You can’t look at China as the answer,” Reuters reported.

“President Xi is a friend of mine, I know him very well … The first thing they’re going to do is say you’re not allowed to play ice hockey anymore. Canada’s not going to like that,” Trump said.

Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa moved forward with a trade deal with China, in a sharp reversal from his previous comments that such a deal could be “a good thing.”

Before his trip to Beijing, Starmer said in an interview with Bloomberg that Britain would not have to choose between the U.S. and China, saying that the country can continue to strengthen economic ties with Beijing without angering Trump or harming relations with the U.S.

“We’ve got very close relations with the US — of course, we want to — and we will maintain that business, alongside security and defense,” he said.

A flurry of Western leaders have visited Beijing in recent weeks as they look to build ties with the world’s second largest economy, and to hedge against Trump’s…