With oil prices at levels not seen in years and global business supply chains across sectors of the economy shut down by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, faith in the C-suite that the worst isn’t yet to come is being tested. On Friday, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said he is planning for $175 oil, and for an oil price that remains above $100 through 2027. This forecast, he said, may not come to pass, but the airline CEO added that there is every reason to at least start planning for it as a potential reality.

Corporate executives have become accustomed in recent years to a world in which it is one new form of uncertainty after another. But the potential ramifications of the U.S.-Iran war, for which President Donald Trump has continued to offer uncertain timelines for ending, has the market and many inside the C-suite on edge. The Nasdaq entered a correction on Friday, a fourth consecutive negative week for the stock market, and it is not just risk-on assets but safe havens such as gold and bonds that are falling.

The administration and military are responding. By Thursday, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military was “hunting and killing” watercraft used by Iran to choke traffic in the strait. President Trump’s threats about the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with Trump saying on Saturday that Iran had 48 hours to reopen the Strait or the U.S. would take out power plants in the country. Meanwhile, more allies of the U.S. have indicated a willingness to support efforts to secure safe passage for ships, though no specific plan has been implemented. Trump also said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz “will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!”

For now, the C-suite has its own view of the matter: it’s roughly two weeks and counting for the Trump administration and any allies that join the effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or corporate executives have to assume that the conflict will drag on until at least mid-year, with all of the negative consequences that come with that for the global economy. That was the conclusion on a call among members of the CNBC CFO Council earlier this week with energy and commodities market expert John Kilduff of Again Capital, who joined CFOs to share his view of the oil price outlook from inside the trader and investor community.    

Among sectors, it is energy that can be said to be truly in the war, and an energy CFO on the Tuesday morning call — CFOs are granted anonymity on the call to speak freely about the discussions inside their firms — said their company is scenario planning for the future with three distinct potentials: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of March, one that is closer to the middle of the year, or in the worst-case…

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday, following volatile trading on Wall Street overnight, as the Middle East war and disruptions to energy supply keep investors jittery.

Iran attacked the world’s largest gas plant in Qatar on Thursday, causing damage to the energy supply for the next several years, in retaliation against Israel’s strikes on its South Pars gas field. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said the Iranian attacks had wiped out 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity for three to five years.

The tit-for-tat attacks on key oil and gas infrastructures across the Middle East sent energy prices soaring.

U.S. natural gas prices were last seen 1.5% higher, trading at $3.112 per million British thermal units. Front-month Nymex RBOB gasoline for April delivery, meanwhile, rose almost 1% to $3.13 and hit a nearly four-year high.

Oil prices retreated with the international benchmark Brent crude futures declining 2% to $106.45 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.56% to $94.64.

Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, expects prices to soar past $180 a barrel if the supply disruption persists until late April, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing country officials.

The market fallout from the regional war has also extended to metals, with gold and silver shedding around 5% and 10%, respectively, before paring losses.

“The recent drop in gold spot price on high volume suggests panic selling,” Ed Yardeni, veteran investor and president of Yardeni Research, said in a note Friday, expecting a bottom in the recent sell-off soon.

Signaling efforts at calming concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he was not deploying ground troops, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would refrain from repeating attacks on Iranian energy facilities.

U.S.-aligned countries, including Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Japan issued a joint statement expressing “our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait” of Hormuz.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 widened losses to 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.61% while mainland China’s CSI 300 index edged up 0.41%.

The Hang Seng tech index dropped 1.7%, with Xiaomi Corp as the largest dragger, falling as much as 6.8%. The sell-off came a day after the company launched an updated electric vehicle model and announced plans to invest over $8.7 billion in artificial intelligence development over the next three years.

China’s central bank held its benchmark lending rates steady for a 10th month on Monday, with the five-year loan prime rates at 3.5% and the one-year rate at 3%.

South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi rose 0.64% while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 1.68%. Japan’s markets were closed for a public holiday.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.44% to 46,021.43…

U.S. oil prices extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude stored aboard tankers, a move aimed at easing price pressures following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, lost 2% to $106 per barrel. U.S. oil prices slid 1.56% to $94.64 per barrel.

“In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water, about 140 million barrels,” Bessent told Fox Business Network.

He said bringing the sanctioned Iranian crude back into global markets would help cap prices over the next 10 to 14 days.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also told reporters that Israel is assisting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to wire reports. He added that Iran no longer has the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, adding that the war could end sooner than many expect.

Citi said the Iran conflict has driven a sharp rally across oil and related commodities, prompting it to lift its near-term price outlook.

The bank now expects Brent and WTI to climb to $120 per barrel over the next one to three months, and to $150 per barrel in a bull-case scenario if disruptions intensify. 

Still, its base case assumes de-escalation within four to six weeks, which would allow Brent to ease back to $70–$80 by year-end.

At the same time, key crude spreads have widened sharply, with Citi raising its Brent-WTI forecasts to reflect elevated freight costs and strong U.S. Gulf Coast demand for inland barrels.

Saudi oil officials expect crude prices could climb above $180 a barrel if Iran war disruptions last through late April, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The extreme spike in oil prices seen in local markets in the Middle East could give investors a glimpse into to where U.S. and Europe prices are headed if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened soon.

Dubai crude oil prices surpassed $166 a barrel to a new record high on Thursday, according to market data provider Platts. Dated Brent and West Texas intermediate Cushing’s are trading around the $100 mark after historic runs higher.

The local markets for oil are often overlooked, but are now seen as a possible precursor of what could be ahead if the conflict doesn’t end soon.

Dubai and Oman current prices reflect the steep severity of the shortage in the Gulf, according to Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of commodities research. But that doesn’t mean the American market will be spared another sharp jump, she said.

“If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence is unlikely to persist,” Kaneva said in a note to clients this week. “Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher as Atlantic basin inventories are drawn down and the global market is forced to clear at a materially tighter supply level.”

West Texas Intermediate crude is not seen as an ideal substitute like Oman, said Andy Harbourne, senior oil markets analyst at Wood Mackenzie. But it could become a more sought-after alternative if transit through Hormuz remains depressed, given that buyers will turn more desperate.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned that if Iran continued targeting Qatar’s energy facilities, America would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field.”

Tehran has attacked a key energy facility in Qatar after Israel bombed the South Pars Gas in Iran, signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict and sending energy prices soaring.

Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian missiles caused “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the largest liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export facility in the world.

Trump also denied any prior knowledge of Israel attacking South Pars, pushing back against reports that the strike was coordinated with and approved by his administration.

In a social media post Wednesday night stateside, Trump said that “the United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen.”

Trump also urged Israel to end attacks on the South Pars gas field, unless Iran “unwisely” decides to attack Qatar. In that case, the U.S. will “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

The attack on South Pars — the world’s largest natural gas reserve, shared between Iran and Qatar — marked the first time Israel has targeted Iranian natural gas production infrastructure since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Iran has fired ballistic missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, with ​QatarEnergy saying the attack had caused “extensive damage” warranting deployment of emergency response teams to contain fires at the site. No casualties were reported.

Separately, Reuters reported Thursday that the U.S. government was considering deploying thousands of U.S. forces to the Middle East, raising the prospect of further escalation.

As tensions spiral, world leaders are scrambling to contain the Middle East conflict amid fears of deepening the turmoil in global energy markets.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Wednesday warned of a “crisis of the gravest order” if global supply chains continued to be disrupted, calling for a path toward de-escalation and a cessation of hostilities once U.S. and Israeli military objectives are achieved, according to local media reports.

Oil prices extended gains as Middle East remains on the boil with strikes on energy infrastructure in the region fanning fears of a supply crunch.

Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility. The action followed Tehran’s warning about attacking energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates after Israel bombed a natural gas processing facility in Iran.

Brent crude May futures were 4% higher at $111.80 as of 8:45 p.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April rose over 3% to $99.47.

Iranian missile strikes inflicted “extensive damage” on Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export facility in the world, Qatar said.

Emergency crews were dispatched to tackle fires at Ras Laffan, QatarEnergy said in a social media post, adding there were no reported casualties. Qatar’s Interior Ministry later said the blaze had been brought under control.

Qatar’s foreign Ministry condemned the attack as a “dangerous escalation” and a “flagrant violation of sovereignty,” warning it threatened national security and regional stability. It added that Qatar reserves the right to respond under international law.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were on alert after Israel struck an Iranian natural gas processing facility.

Qatar had already suspended LNG production on March 2 following Iranian drone attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial City. The country is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the U.S., accounting for nearly a fifth of global shipments, according to Kpler.

The escalating strikes on Middle East energy infrastructure risk deepening the supply shock triggered by the Iran war. Tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz that was handling about 20% of global oil supplies, is largely blocked.

Gulf Oil’s senior energy advisor Tom Kloza warned that markets could enter an “all bets are off” scenario if the conflict spills beyond the Gulf and begins targeting energy infrastructure in other regions, such as Europe or the United States.

“Can you imagine the response in the world if [Iran] targeted something outside of the Persian Gulf, a refinery in Rotterdam or a facility somewhere in the United States, that’s when all bets are off and prices could go absolutely apocalyptic,” he said.

Such a shift would mark a break from contained geopolitical risk to a global supply shock, where traditional pricing models and risk assumptions no longer hold. In that environment, fears of widespread disruptions to refining and fuel distribution could trigger extreme volatility, with oil and gas prices surging sharply as traders price in worst-case scenarios and scramble to secure supplies.

“We’re moving from a supply chain problem to potentially a supply…

Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has stoked fears of the gravest disruption to global oil supply in history, as the Middle East conflict stretches into its third week.

The blockade has squeezed shipping traffic to a trickle, with just 21 tankers transiting the route since the war began on Feb. 28, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, compared to more than 100 ships daily before the conflict.

Most vessels appear to be holding positions outside Hormuz, with thousands of seafarers stranded aboard vessels in the Gulf. Some have explored a pivot to disperse to alternative ports.

Roughly 400 vessels were spotted operating in the Gulf of Oman, as a massive backlog of ships waited near the chokepoint, according to a report from maritime intelligence firm Windward on Sunday.

While Iran has kept a tight grip on the strait, a small number of other ships have made the crossing under varying circumstances, signaling that Tehran is selectively letting through some non-Iranian oil cargo in negotiated safe voyages, according to maritime analysts.

Here’s a look at some of the countries that have had their vessels go through the critical energy route since the war began.

Beijing was reportedly in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers to pass through the strait. Iran has continued to ship millions of barrels of crude oil to China since the war began.

From March 1 to March 15, a total of 11 China-linked vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, mostly general cargo ships, while tankers operated by mainstream Chinese owners still avoided the route. Earlier this month, Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping suspended all new bookings for routes to and from ports in the Middle East.

Yet a ship that broadcasts its Chinese affiliation does not always guarantee a safe passage.

One China-owned vessel broadcasting “China Owner” via AIS during transit was struck by shrapnel while sailing from the Middle East Gulf toward Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates on March 12, a development that has since deterred further Chinese transits, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Greek shipowners, run by Athens-based Dynacom Tankers Management, have been among the first mainstream operators to test the route.

The Shenlong, a…

Oil prices slipped on Wednesday despite escalating attacks on the United Arab Emirates’ energy infrastructure, as rising U.S. crude inventories helped offset rising geopolitical risk premiums.

Prices of Brent, the international benchmark, declined 1.17% to $102.19 per barrel. U.S. oil prices fell 1.81%, to $94.56 per barrel as of 10:44 p.m. ET.

Market sources, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute, told Reuters that U.S. crude stocks rose by 6.56 million barrels in the week ended March 13, well above the 380,000 additional barrels expected in a Reuters poll for the same period.

The price pullback came even as fresh strikes in the UAE fueled fears of prolonged supply disruptions amid the Iran conflict. Recent incidents included a drone attack on the world’s largest ultra-sour gas facility, a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, and damage to a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a temporary shutdown triggered by drone strikes. Meanwhile, operations at the Shah gas field remain suspended following a separate drone attack that caused a fire, authorities said, with no reported injuries.

Located roughly 110 miles southwest of Abu Dhabi, the Shah field is operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Occidental Petroleum. It has a capacity of over 1.28 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day and 4.2 million tons of sulfur annually.

Oil prices have also come under some pressure as the U.S. used bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

“This is providing some optimism that we are getting closer to the day when tankers can safely restart transiting the waterway,” he told CNBC.

Citi said oil markets were likely to remain under pressure in the near term. In its base-case scenario, disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz over the next four to six weeks could remove as much as 11 million to 16 million barrels per day from the market, pushing Brent crude to around $110 to $120 a barrel.

In a more severe scenario, Citi said a prolonged outage or broader attacks on energy infrastructure could drive prices to $130 on average in the second and third quarters, with spikes as high as $150 Brent or even $200 including refined products.

LONDON — European stocks are set to open broadly flat on Tuesday as global markets remain volatile and oil prices continue to fluctuate.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is seen opening 0.1% higher while Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB are expected to be flat, according to data from IG.

Regional markets regained ground on Tuesday morning as investors continued to weigh ongoing unrest in the Middle East and elevated global oil prices.

Oil prices declined on Monday, with WTI trading at just below $95 a barrel, down from above $100 at the weekend, after a Wall Street Journal report stated the U.S. will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also told CNBC Monday that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers passage through the Strait. But oil prices jumped over 2% overnight as uncertainty lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping.

Traders’ attention is turning to central bank action this week with the U.S. Federal Reserve opening a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

The Fed has come under sustained pressure from Trump to lower interest rates but the war on Iran means traders are forecasting a hold on interest rates from the central bank when it delivers its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Asian markets broadly rose overnight while U.S. stock futures fell slightly.

Earnings come from Prudential and Poste Italiane on Tuesday, while data releases include the latest reading of EU economic sentiment.

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle, and his latest round with reporters in the Oval Office has yielded more headlines and market moves this morning. It’s only Tuesday and already it’s been a volatile week for oil, which remains the epicenter of trading action.

Market participants — as well as us journalists — will need to stay on their toes to keep up with developments.

Oil prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday as uncertainty lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump suggested Monday that the coalition was not fully in place as he urged other countries to get involved.

He voiced his frustrations by saying “some are very enthusiastic, and some are less than enthusiastic … and I assume some will not do it.”

Washington, meanwhile, is looking to postpone a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid the conflict with Iran. During a press conference in the Oval Office, he said, “There’s no tricks to it either. It’s very simple. We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

Back in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown, as Iran continued missile and drone attacks. The UAE’s Defense Ministry said that air defenses have intercepted more than 300 ballistic missiles and 1,600 drones so far.

The volatility has led to a hike in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank raised its benchmark policy rate for a second consecutive time, citing concerns over the inflation risk posed by the war in Iran.

In stock markets, Asia-Pacific equities rose Tuesday as auto and tech stocks gained after Nvidia announced robust revenue forecast for its key chips, and partnerships with carmakers from the region. European and U.S. futures are lacking direction in early trade.

— Leonie Kidd

Energy analysts and traders said Monday that they wouldn’t be surprised if oil prices climb to as high as $200 per barrel as the sprawling Middle East crisis drags on.

It comes as the U.S. and Israeli-led war on Iran continues to disrupt oil production and shipping in the region, with traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz effectively grinding to a halt in recent weeks.

— Sam Meredith

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