Another big jobs report in May has pretty much swept aside the possibility of interest rate cuts anytime soon — and in the process underscored the tricky policy path ahead for new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

The chance of rate reductions already had been on life support heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

But the unexpectedly strong gain of 172,000, compounded by sharp upward revisions for prior months, makes the case for policy easing even weaker, particularly considering the elevated level of inflation and uncertainty over the Iran war.

“If I’m at the [Fed], I say, ‘look, job growth is good, there’s no need for us to support the labor market. Inflation is high,'” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC. “So therefore we can keep the fed funds rate where it is right now until we get a better picture of what’s going on on the inflation front.”

Indeed, market expectations shifted even further after the nonfarm payrolls report. Traders priced in an even lower chance of a cut at the June 16-17 meeting and raised the odds of a hike by the end of 2026 to about 70% nearing midday Friday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of futures prices.

Warsh’s dilemma, though, runs deeper than the simple calculus of where rates are headed. A number of his colleagues have been challenging not merely the chair’s positions but the framework and filter through which policymakers interpret inflation, growth and the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

There was Governor Christopher Waller expressing worry that consumer and market psychology was in danger of shifting their inflation expectations higher — a key consideration when figuring out how the Fed should react.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem took on Warsh’s stated belief that artificial intelligence and its anticipated productivity gains would be a disinflationary force on the economy. Instead, Musalem contended, it would be “risky to rely on the prospect of higher productivity growth in the future to solve our inflation problem today.”

Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan countered Warsh’s reliance on “trimmed mean” measures for inflation. Those gauges toss out the highest and lowest inputs to inflation calculations and focus on readings closer to the midpoint of the data.

Warsh has said that trimmed mean measures indicate that inflation is much closer to the Fed’s 2% goal than the headline data indicates, an important consideration at a time when surging energy prices are having an outsized impact.

“A change in the mix…

Shares in KKR, Blackstone and other sector peers tumbled on Wednesday after Switzerland’s Partners Group moved to restrict investor withdrawals from one of its funds, stoking fresh fears over private market valuations.

Shares in KKR dropped more than 4%. Blackstone and Ares Management each slipped around 4%, while Blue Owl Capital and Carlyle Group both shed more than 3%.

Shares in Partners Group — the Swiss asset management giant active in private equity, private credit, infrastructure and real estate markets — plunged more than 16%, reaching a 52-week low on Wednesday.

The Zurich-listed firm has moved to curb investor redemptions in its Global Value ‌SICAV ⁠fund, an $8.6 billion so-called ‘evergreen’ private equity vehicle, at 5% of net asset value, after redemption requests hit 9.8%, according to a Bloomberg report.

The fund represents about 4.8% of Partners Group’s total asset base.

David Layton, Partners Group CEO, told Bloomberg that the redemption pressure seen in private credit is now spreading into other asset classes.

The cap chimes with similar measures taken by several U.S. private equity outfits in recent months, where firms have halted or restricted investors from pulling out their money, amid a growing rush for the exits.

Retail investors have sought to redeem their money amid growing concerns over liquidity mismatches and deteriorating asset quality in private fund structures.

Oil markets are nearing minimum operating levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday, underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war.

Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of Abaxx Markets.

A large portion of that oil is needed to keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore.

Global oil markets have been under strain since the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year, after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply curtailed energy exports from the Middle East. 

“We’ve seen explosive prices on products. Jet fuel has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel,” said Currie.

Europe could begin seeing similar strains within weeks, as the current relief from U.S. oil flows may prove temporary, and as the summer driving season starts. “I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” Currie said.

“All of the inventories that are drawing out of the United States out of the U.S. SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] are being exported into Europe, so the Europeans think they have no problem because they’re getting all of this oil being imported from the United States, but that can’t continue on.”

His comments come on the back of recent warnings by the International Energy Agency that the global oil market could face a critical supply squeeze during the peak summer consumption period, especially if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover and inventories continue falling.

“We may be entering the red zone in July or August if we don’t see that there are some improvements in the situation,” IEA chief Fatih Birol cautioned last week.

Currie, a former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, dismissed proposals such as suspending the U.S. federal gasoline tax as insufficient to address the underlying supply crunch.

“That doesn’t solve any of the problems. The only way you solve this problem is to increase the availability of molecules,” he said, referring to physical oil supply. While releases from the U.S. SPR have provided some relief,…

The Power100 gathering on the sidelines of the Milken Institute Global Conference took on a different tone this year as its diverse leaders in finance attendees fight to reclaim the narrative about people of color and women.

“We are trying to show the world what success looks like,” said Jacob Walthour, co-founder of Power100 and founder and CEO of Blueprint Capital. “And over the course of the last year, what success looks like has been redefined in a way that has not been respectful and not truthful about the contributions of women and people of color.”

President Donald Trump, who campaigned on and speaks often about rolling back diversity, equity and inclusion measures in both the federal government and the private sector, was not mentioned at the conference, but the impact of his policies were clearly on the minds of attendees. In his first week back in office in 2025, Trump issued a series of executive orders targeting DEI initiatives at federal agencies and private-sector businesses.

The Power100 meeting — in its third year — is hosted by Blueprint Capital Advisors in Beverly Hills, Calif., convening diverse leaders in alternative capital management, a field predominantly led by white men.

According to a 2025 Government Accountability Office report, minority- and women-owned firms only manage 1.4% of the approximately $82 trillion in assets under management in the U.S.

Shundrawn Thomas, founder of the Copia Group investment firm attended for the first time this year, with the goal of building networks and opportunities to combat trends he sees as concerning.

“We’ve been through a period where there has been an implication that capital and opportunity was flowing to women and people of color that were not qualified,” he said. “Unfortunately, while these arguments are taking place, we’ve seen a dramatic decline in the amount of capital going to emerging and diverse managers.”

“Superman is not coming,” he said. “We need to be the agents of change.”

Walthour said he thinks the end of DEI is one of two macro trends affecting the alternative capital management field, along with the beginning of what many believe will be an AI revolution.

The Power100 has changed dramatically since it was started in 2024 by Walthour, Robert F. Smith of Vista Equity Partners, Ken Kencel of Churchill Asset Management and several other leaders in finance. 

From the beginning, the event was positioned to be adjacent to the Milken Institute Global Conference to offer networking and access to firm and leaders that could not afford the registration fee that begins at $25,000 this year.

The Power100 event has since grown into its own destination with networking events, panels and a…

Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India“ — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest growing large economy.

Over the past two decades, India’s IT sector has been driving a consumption boom that has in many ways anchored the India growth story. But as AI forces IT companies to shift away from volume hiring, it exposes a critical gap that risks hampering economic growth: a lack of quality jobs.

Read on!

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Even as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts global supply chains, the IMF earlier this month reaffirmed its forecast that India will remain the fastest-growing large economy in 2026.

But last week, global equity research firm Bernstein wrote an open letter to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, warning of a deepening employment crisis in the country, especially as artificial intelligence threatens quality jobs in the information technology sector.

Those jobs with relatively high wages and productivity have had spillover effects across real estate, education, and services, making white-collar employment a key pillar of the country’s economic growth.

For the past two decades, 10 million to 15 million Indians working in IT services and the business process outsourcing industry have anchored the “aspirational middle class—buying homes, taking flights, driving consumption,” Bernstein said. “Gen AI now challenges that template.”

India’s IT sector used to outcompete global peers as the vast talent pool at relatively low cost gave it an edge, experts said. But AI has tilted this equation in favor of tech arbitrage, from labor arbitrage earlier. The lack of quality jobs will stress-test the India growth story, which relies on the demographic dividend and domestic consumption.

“Without job creation, India’s consumption-led economy will struggle to grow, limiting investment demand at a time when the export growth-led model is at risk globally,” Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, chief India economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, told CNBC.

“India has struggled to raise the share of manufacturing in the economy to shift labour from farm to factories,” she said, adding that the AI boom now poses a threat to jobs in both manufacturing and services.

Close to 45% of India’s workforce continues to depend on agriculture, which only contributes 15%–16% of its GDP, according to Bernstein.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18 during the AI Summit earlier this year, Ashwini Vaishnaw, India’s IT minister, acknowledged that disruption to jobs in the tech sector was a “real challenge,” but stressed that the solution was in “upskilling and reskilling the workforce.” The Indian government expects AI to reinvent the country’s IT sector.

“Not all jobs are at risk of being replaced by AI,” said Alexandra Hermann Prasad, lead…

Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India“ — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest growing large economy.

Indian consumers’ desire to shift away from gasoline-based cars should have been Tesla and BYD’s moment to shine in the world’s third-largest auto market. But legacy carmakers that have dominated the Indian market for decades have an ace up their sleeve — hybrid cars.

Enjoy!

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The demand for electric vehicles is surging worldwide, but Indian consumers are choosing a different ride — hybrid cars that don’t need external charging.

Hybrid cars are expected to reach 10% of total car sales in India in the financial year ending March 2027, while EVs are expected to account for 5%, according to a report by Indian research firm Care Ratings.

Cost-conscious consumers who were previously buying diesel vehicles have started shifting to hybrids, Puneet Gupta, director at S&P Global Mobility with a focus on the Indian market, told CNBC.

Hybrid vehicle sales have risen nearly fourfold in the world’s third-largest auto market to 362,866 units in the financial year ending March 2026, from 98,010 units in the financial year ending March 2020, according to Care Ratings.

Meanwhile, annual sales of electric vehicles were 131,865 units in the year to March 2026, the report, based on the Indian government’s vehicle registration data, showed.

“It’s clear that hybrid cars are gaining traction [in India] faster than EVs in the passenger car segment,” Diwakar Murugan, senior automotives analyst at Omdia, said in an email to CNBC. He added it was “remarkable” that hybrids are punching above their weight, having achieved strong growth with just eight models in the market so far, compared to more than 40 EV models.

The shift away from internal combustion engine, or ICE, vehicles should have ushered global EV companies like Tesla and BYD into India, but it turns out that Japanese manufacturers, who already dominate India’s auto space, are set to deepen their grip on the market by offering hybrid cars instead of pure EVs.

Tesla has sold fewer than 400 cars while BYD has sold less than 7,000 in India since 2025, according to government data.

Even in the EV space, automakers Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors, which primarily sell ICE cars, are the leading players. That’s a stark contrast to BYD and Tesla’s global dominance: in 2025, BYD became the world’s top EV seller with 2.26 million units, while Tesla sold 1.64 million.

In hybrids, Japan’s Toyota and Maruti Suzuki — the Indian subsidiary of Suzuki Motor — are the top manufacturers in India, with popular models including the Toyota Innova Hycross and Maruti Grand Vitara, said Arun Agarwal, vice president of fundamental research at Indian brokerage Kotak Securities.

These companies already dominate the broader…

Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India“ — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest growing large economy.

Just as India’s textile industry was beginning to stabilize after U.S. tariffs, it received another blow. Industry leaders tell me the Iran war has raised costs, hit demand and sent workers fleeing, crushing hopes of a sustained recovery.

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This has led to some unusual challenges for the textile industry, India’s second‑largest employer which supports more than 45 million jobs.

Industry leaders said some migrant workers employed by the textile companies were struggling to secure liquified petroleum gas, the primary cooking fuel. This has prompted some to return to their home towns.

Between April 2025 and February this year, India exported cotton and man‑made yarns, fabrics, and ready-made garments worth $29.5 billion, down from $29.8 billion a year earlier, according to data from the Indian commerce ministry. While the decline may appear modest, the direction of travel is worrying for a country that aims to export $100 billion worth of textiles annually by 2030.

“We were expecting FY27 [financial year ending March 2027] to be much better, but now, with the Iran war, the beginning hasn’t been encouraging,” said Madhu Sudhan Bhageria, chairman at synthetic and polyester filament yarns manufacturer Filatex India.

He explained that polyester prices — which depend on petroleum — have risen more than 40% since the start of the war, making it difficult to pass on costs to customers.

“Demand has fallen as people don’t want to buy at high prices,” Bhageria said,…

Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India“ — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest growing large economy.

Indian markets have been rattled by the Iran war, with foreign investors fleeing and valuations slipping to rare lows. But fund managers tell me that low prices by themselves won’t lure investors back.

Enjoy!

Any thoughts on today’s newsletter? Share them with the team.

For months, trade tensions with the U.S. were dubbed the biggest overhang on Indian equities. When the two countries agreed on a trade pact in February, foreign investors poured nearly $2.5 billion into Indian stocks. But a month later, the market has completely reversed course.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 fell more than 10% in March, as foreign investors sold over $12 billion in equities — the worst monthly sell-off on record.

The index now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 times, a level rarely seen over the past decade. The only two occasions in the past ten years when Indian benchmark valuations dipped this low were during the early months of the Covid‑19 outbreak in 2020 and the Russia‑Ukraine war in 2022.

So, I asked fund managers whether Indian markets are oversold — and whether these near-historically low valuations could be a good point to invest in the fabled “India growth story.”

The world’s fastest-growing economy’s forecast of 7.0%–7.4% growth for the financial year ending March 2027 faces “considerable downside” risk due to rising energy costs and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Iran war, Nageswaran warned. He also expects the trade deficit to “rise significantly” and lead to a “widening [of] the current account deficit.”

In response to these pressures, the Indian government introduced two key interventions last week. The first aimed to curb the falling rupee by limiting currency‑hedging positions that banks can take. The second was an excise duty cut on petrol and diesel to prevent a spike in retail fuel prices that could worsen inflation.

While the rupee has strengthened thanks to the currency curbs, Nitin Jain, chief…

India’s telecom giant Bharti Airtel has raised $1 billion for its data center arm — Nxtra Data — from private equity firms Alpha Wave, Carlyle and Anchorage Capital, underscoring a growing global interest in the sector.

Bharti Airtel is India’s second-largest telecom operator and the raise will value Nxtra Data at about $3.1 billon once the transaction closes, the company said in a stock exchange filing on Monday.

Nxtra Data will receive $435 million from Florida-headquartered Alpha Wave Global, $240 million from existing investor Washington-based Carlyle, and $35 million from New York City’s Anchorage Capital, Airtel said, adding that it will contribute the remaining amount.

The fresh capital will support Nxtra’s expansion across India, Airtel said.

Gopal Vittal, executive vice chairman of Airtel, said Nxtra has built “data center networks” aimed at meeting the evolving needs of enterprises, hyperscalers, and government clients.

Nxtra has around 300MW of data center capacity, which will be scaled to 1GW “in the next few years, targeting ~25% market share,” he added. It currently has 14 large data centers and more than 120 smaller, decentralized facilities located closer to end users and devices.

Data center demand globally has surged in recent years, largely driven by the explosion in AI workloads, which require vast computing power, electrical power, cooling and networking infrastructure. More than $61 billion flowed into the data center market in 2025.

“India has an immense AI opportunity — Indians already meaningfully interact with platforms like ChatGPT, Claude and other AI tools,” said Navroz D. Udwadia, co‑founder of Alpha Wave Global, in the filing. India’s data center capacity must grow significantly to keep pace with demand from hyperscalers and large language models, he added.

Global interest has been rising sharply in India’s data center space, amid increasing artificial intelligence workloads. In December, Microsoft and Amazon pledged more than $50 billion toward India’s cloud and AI infrastructure in under 24 hours. In October, Google announced a $15 billion investment to build its largest data center hub outside the U.S. in India.

To keep up the momentum, the Indian government earlier this year announced a 20‑year tax exemption for hyperscalers using data centers in the country to serve global clients.

With already low infrastructure costs and a newly announced tax holiday, India is becoming increasingly attractive for hyperscalers compared to rival hubs such as Singapore, the UAE and Ireland.

“We have built a strong partnership with Airtel and continue to believe Nxtra is well-positioned to benefit from India’s long-term digital infrastructure tailwinds,” said Kapil Modi,…