Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

While I am a CNBC veteran, today marks my first Daily Open newsletter, so bear with me as I find my feet. In the London newsroom this morning, it’s no surprise that oil is on everyone’s mind — especially when historic shock and awe moves from global energy agencies fail to turn the market tide.

You can subscribe to the EMEA edition of the Daily Open here.

It was an unprecedented move from the International Energy Agency and U.S. administration, but according to markets, it was not enough. Oil prices are surging once again, with Brent crude topping $100 per barrel on Thursday despite the IEA agreeing to a historic release of a record 400 million barrels of oil. The U.S. also said it would tap 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower energy costs.

The energy picture is complicated by another development — Iran has continued to send large amounts of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran has jeopardized broader supplies through the critical waterway.

Global equities remain sensitive to the energy moves. Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 leading the declines. European stocks are expected to open lower, while U.S. futures are also pointing to another negative session.

The war that continues to rage in Iran has not distracted President Donald Trump from his trade war. The U.S. administration on Wednesday launched trade probes into more than a dozen countries, with the goal of replacing the reciprocal tariffs, which were recently ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. The main targets are the EU, China and Mexico, alongside a slew of other nations including Switzerland, Norway, Japan, India and South Korea.

In other words, energy markets are volatile, supply chains are tightening and trade tensions are heating up (again). Global markets rarely enjoy juggling all three at once.

— Leonie Kidd

How the Iran war could impact hyperscalers’ massive AI buildout in the Middle East

Tech companies have been funneling billions of dollars into AI infrastructure projects in the Middle East over the past few years, drawn in by cheap and readily available energy and land, alongside local government support.

But the Iran war spilling over into neighbouring countries in the Middle East throws questions over the future of the data center and digital infrastructure buildout in the region, particularly if it becomes a prolonged conflict, experts told CNBC.

Data centers have already been targeted, causing banking, payments, enterprise and consumer services to experience outages.

— Kai Nicol-Schwarz

Even as a U.S.–China trade truce appears to be holding, analysts caution that the détente remains fragile in a rivalry increasingly defined by strategic competition.

A flurry of decisions, outlined in the sweeping trade deal struck by U.S. President Donald Trump with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month, took effect on Monday, with rollbacks of steep tariffs and export controls.

The U.S. halved fentanyl-linked tariffs on imports from China to 10% and extended for a year a truce that lowered the reciprocal tariff rate from 34% to 10%.

In return, China’s Ministry of Commerce rolled back several export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth materials to the U.S. on Monday. Those curbs, first imposed on Oct. 9, had targeted materials vital for military hardware, semiconductors, and other high-tech industries.

Beijing also reversed retaliatory limits on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and other so-called super-hard materials such as synthetic diamonds and boron nitrides. Those measures, introduced in December 2024, were widely seen as a response to Washington’s expanded semiconductor export restrictions on China. 

Still, Morgan Stanley economists said that Beijing has not unwound the export-control framework it introduced in April – likely to maintain a “calibrated choke-point” meant to preserve leverage.

Given the persisting strategic rivalry, “we view rolling negotiations, episodic flare-ups, and policy asymmetry as the new equilibrium,” the economists said.

China is also reportedly developing a so-called “validated end-user” system, or VEU, to block rare earth exports to companies with ties to the U.S. military, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.

The system, if strictly implemented, could make it more difficult for automotive and aerospace companies with both civilian and defense clients to import certain Chinese materials, the Journal reported.

As part of the bilateral agreement, the White House said China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of this year and 25 million annually over the next three years. Beijing, which has not confirmed those numbers, appeared to have resumed soybean purchases from the U.S. recently, according to Reuters, after shunning them for most parts of this…