Russia and Ukraine continue to attack one another’s port infrastructure, blocking shipments from the “breadbasket of Europe” and driving up wheat prices, and adding to a grim cocktail of factors afflicting global food supply.

The two vast nations are estimated to produce around a quarter of the world’s grain exports. The warring countries exported nearly 100 million metric tons of grain between them in the year to June, according to customs figures, with shipments largely continuing to flow since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 thanks to diplomatic agreements to protect global food supplies.

Recent military strikes on grain export facilities, oil tankers and vessels in the Black Sea region have now made it too challenging for shipping firms to get insurance, meaning many are avoiding its ports. Alternative land routes for Ukrainian grain are also being stymied by low water levels on the Danube river, and by rail maintenance in Eastern Europe.

Agricultural shipments are being disrupted not just by conflict on the Black Sea but also by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and by the depletion of waterways such as Germany’s Rhine.

Ongoing obstruction of those waterways is helping drive up the price of agricultural products such as fertilizer — and adding to farming woes in the process.

Soaring costs for farmers around the world, from fertilizer and diesel to labor, will further jeopardize food security if many decide they simply cannot make the money they need, analysts warn.