President Donald Trump’s pause on sweeping global tariffs while keeping the pressure on China was good for a glorious, one-day rally last Wednesday. But, the next two sessions were divided — setting the stage for what could be more volatility this week as investors try to keep up with an ever-evolving tariff picture as well as earnings. For last week, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced 5.7% and 7.3%, respectively. But zooming out to survey the damage done by Trump’s trade war, the S & P 500 was still down 4.4% for the month through Friday’s close. It’s still early days in April, but this kind of weakness comes after the S & P 500’s 5.75% decline in March, which was the worst monthly performance for the index since December 2022. Putting last week’s market moves into context requires going back to the evening of April 2, when Trump announced what he billed as “reciprocal” tariffs on U.S. trading partners — but which turned out to be way steeper than the market expected. Concern about how the huge levies on nearly all imports would impact inflation and economic growth gripped Wall Street. Economists and CEOs of some of the nation’s biggest financial firms were ramping up their recession odds. Investors were trying to come to terms with a protracted trade war and how to value stocks because, it seemed, that Trump 2.0 no longer seemed to care about the stock market. He used to view it as a barometer of his success as president but not anymore. Since taking office for the second time, he has aggressively upended the status quo — from mass firings of federal workers aimed at downsizing the U.S. government and piling tariffs on top of tariffs. All the while, the market has been going lower and lower. .SPX mountain 2025-04-02 S & P 500 performance since April 2 Then came last Wednesday, when the president blinked and the S & P 500 rocketed 9.5% higher, its third biggest daily percentage gain since World War II. What sparked the rally was Trump announcing that afternoon he would pause tariffs on nearly all imports at 10% during a 90-day moratorium on those bigger, country-specific levies that when into effect just over 12 hours earlier. He said China was excluded and would face a 125% tariff for retaliating, which is effectively 145%, due to the previously imposed fentanyl-related duty. China shot back and increased its tariffs to 125% from 84%. Did Trump capitulate because of the stock market? Perhaps that was part of it. But media reports and market commentary signaled that it was the sharp selling in bonds Wednesday, which inversely sent yields soaring, that tipped the scales. The thought of foreign bondholders like Japan and China dumping Treasurys en masse and the economic chaos that would create was a bridge too far. The 10-year Treasury yield influences a host of consumer loan costs including mortgage rates, which jumped back higher following a respite the previous week. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday the president…
Read More: Here are the 2 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week