Setting the tone for the event, Mike Henry, CEO of BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP), underscored in an hour-long keynote address the vast amount of critical minerals that will be needed in the years ahead.
“In copper alone, we anticipate 70 percent growth in demand by the middle of this century. Billions of people depend on our industry’s ability to deliver the critical minerals the world needs in a timely, reliable and cost-effective manner,” he said.
The CEO went on to underscore the abundant resource potential offered by Canada, Australia and Chile, while also noting the massive investments needed to propel the energy transition and global decarbonization.
“Done well, the meeting of the world’s growing need for critical minerals can transform communities, economies and countries for the better, and one need look no further than Canada or Australia or Chile, three resource-rich nations that have harnessed their resource endowment for the effective benefit of the people,” Henry said.
He added that this continued effort requires capital, offering investors strong returns by supporting the right companies, commodities and standards. As Henry explained, for copper alone an investment of US$250 billion will be needed over the next five to 10 years to keep pace with “surging local demand.”
When extrapolated to include other in-demand metals, that number balloons to US$800 billion between now and 2040.
The need for exploration investment was also reiterated by Kevin Murphy, director of metals and mining research with S&P Global Commodity Insights. During his presentation, he noted that mining exploration spending has dropped sharply from its highs in 2011 and 2012, with gold remaining the top target, followed by copper, uranium and lithium.
“I would consider exploration the canary in the coal mine for the mining industry in general; it’s the base of the pyramid, where mines are at the top and a huge amount of exploration, in theory, should be at the bottom,” said Murphy. “If we look at where we currently are in exploration spending compared to historic amounts, we’re actually down a fair bit.”
Over the last decade, exploration expenditure has also shifted focus, from greenfield to mine site exploration.
“if you go back into the ’90s, even the early 2000s, generative, purely generative exploration, looking for new deposits. That was actually the preferred place to put your money,” explained Murphy.
“That has shifted greatly, so much so it’s now the least preferred. People are exploring their mines. They’re exploring assets with resources already proven, and they are moving further and further away from doing generative exploration.”
According to Murphy, greenfield exploration dropped significantly in 2024, raising concerns about long-term supply, particularly for copper, where major new discoveries have slowed. Gold has long focused on mine site exploration, while lithium and uranium, as younger commodities, are targeting assets…