Products and companies most at risk

Many of the items that U.S. shoppers browse and buy in retailers’ aisles come from far-away factories or farms — a reality that could soon force many consumers to change their buying habits.

Sneakers, T-shirts, beer and other common household items are often made in countries like China, Mexico and Canada before they wind their way to a big-box retailer, grocer or mall in the U.S. That complex global supply chain is front and center Monday as President-elect Donald Trump gets inaugurated and is widely expected to announce new tariffs on imports.

While tariffs have become a familiar concept for more Americans since Trump implemented them on metals and other key materials during his first term in office, the levies he has threatened for his return to the White House could have a much bigger effect on household budgets.

Most people have little grasp of just how many items could see price hikes due to the duties: from avocados to children’s toys, to chocolate and cars, experts told CNBC. Proposed tariffs on products from China, Mexico and Canada — the three largest U.S. trading partners — would likely affect U.S. consumers the most.

The exact details of those tariffs, including which countries would be affected and how high the duties might be, remain unclear and could change. On the campaign trail, Trump spoke about implementing 10% to 20% tariffs on all countries, and putting levies as high as 60% on Chinese goods.

While news reports in recent weeks have suggested Trump could scale back his tariff proposals, and could be using them as a negotiating tactic to bend foreign governments to his will, the president-elect has denied those reports.

Since his first run for president, Trump has argued tariffs will encourage more manufacturing in the U.S. and promote job creation and national security. It’s not just him: President Joe Biden and other Democrats have backed more limited tariffs for the same reasons.

Regardless, the risk is clear for retailers: Any tariffs would bring extra costs they’d have to absorb, share with producers or pass on to customers by charging higher prices — the latter of which is the most likely scenario as the industry is reluctant to sacrifice profits, retail executives and industry experts told CNBC in recent weeks. Major retail trade groups, including the National Retail Federation and Consumer Technology Association, have warned tariffs would effectively become a tax on American businesses and consumers.

Shoppers are already expecting tariffs to hit their pocketbooks. About 67% U.S. adults surveyed said they think it is very likely or somewhat likely that companies will pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers, according to Morning Consult survey of more than 4,400 people in early December. Even so, the same poll found about 45% of adults back a 10% tariff on all imports, and more than a third of respondents…