Nickel markets have been underwhelming the past couple of years as an oversupply of the base metal exceeded demand. It was a trend that continued through the last quarter of 2024.
Indonesian supply was the primary force preventing a breakout in the nickel markets. The country continued to be the largest global source, with much of its nickel destined for Chinese-owned refineries in the country.
However, oversupply was also met with weak demand, as China’s economy continued to sputter after the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese housing and manufacturing markets are important demand drivers for nickel, which is used in stainless steel products.
Nickel price in Q4
Nickel reached its 2024 peak of US$21,615 per metric ton on May 20, but was back below the US$16,000 mark by the end of July. Following some volatility in August and September, the price of nickel gained momentum at the end of Q3, reaching US$18,221 on October 2.
However, the increased prices were not to last, and nickel spent much of the final quarter in a downward trend.
By the end of October, the price had fallen to US$15,732 before climbing back to US$16,607 on November 7.
Since then, the nickel market has seen some volatility but has continued its downward trend. On December 19, it slumped to its 2024 low of US$15,090. However, it saw some small gains, ending the year at US$15,300 on December 31.
Nickel price, Q4 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
Nickel’s weak prices are largely due to high output from Indonesia and low demand, particularly from Asian markets, as China’s recovery has failed to gain traction.
As a result, on December 19, it was reported that Indonesia is considering implementing cuts to mining quotas to boost prices. The move would see the country cut output by nearly half, from 272 million metric tons of ore produced in 2024 to 150 million metric tons in 2025.
Additionally, Indonesia is looking to tighten environmental regulation compliance for miners in the new year and could introduce increased volatility into metals markets, including nickel. The move comes not long after it signed several new agreements in November with Chinese companies that would see billions invested in nickel operations in Indonesia.
Indonesia had previously worked to distance itself from China’s partnerships as it sought to improve relations with the United States and be included under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The new agreements emerged shortly after Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 7. Trump’s return to the Oval Office is unlikely to bode well for Indonesian officials seeking to secure a trade deal with the United States. However, a loosening of rules in the IRA might create new inroads for Indonesian nickel producers.
How did nickel perform for the rest of the year?
Nickel price in Q1
The story since the start of the year has been high output from Indonesian…
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