What Trump’s presidency could mean for the housing market in the U.S.

President-elect Donald Trump wants to address housing affordability in the U.S. by fomenting the construction of new homes.

“We’re going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction,” Trump said during an Aug. 15 news conference. “We desperately need housing for people who can’t afford what’s going on now.”

As of mid-2023, there has been a housing shortage of 4 million homes in the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors.

“It’s clear that the prescription for that crisis is more building,” said Jim Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. 

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There has been a small increase in new homes being built this year, but it’s still not enough to meet the high demand for housing, leaving a significant gap in the market where there are not enough homes available for buyers, experts say.

Single-family housing starts in the U.S., a measure of new homes that began construction, grew to 1,027,000 in September, according to U.S. Census data. That is a 2.7% jump from August.

While building more homes is the simpler answer to address the housing issue in the country, other promises Trump has made could deter affordability efforts, experts say.

For instance, Trump has talked about enacting a mass deportation of immigrants in the U.S. But doing so might lead to higher building costs, as the construction industry depends on immigrant labor, said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.

He also claimed that he would pull down mortgage rates back to pandemic-era lows, although presidents do not control mortgage rates, experts say.

Here’s how some of Trump’s policies could affect the housing market during his administration, according to experts:

At the end of Trump’s first presidency, he signed an executive order creating “Eliminating Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing: Federal, State, Local and Tribal Opportunities.” 

“That could be a blueprint going forward,” said Dennis Shea, executive director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Terwilliger Center.   

During his 2024 campaign, Trump called for slashing regulations and permit requirements, which can add onto housing costs for homebuyers. Experts say that regulatory costs trickle down to the prices homebuyers face.

“We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half,” Trump said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 5. 

About 24% of the cost of a single-family home and about 41% of the cost of a multifamily home are directly attributable to regulatory costs at the local, state and federal level, Tobin said. 

“If we reduce the regulatory burden on home construction or apartment construction, we’re going to…