A customer watches stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, China, on September 27, 2024.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said.
Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit 2.59 trillion yuan ($368.78 billion), surpassing a high of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, according to Wind Information.
Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.
This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”
Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information.
The Shanghai Composite in June 2015 soared past 5,100 points, a level it has never regained since a market plunge later that summer. MSCI that year delayed adding the mainland Chinese stocks to its globally tracked emerging markets index. Also hitting sentiment was Beijing’s back-and-forth on a crackdown on trading with borrowed funds and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.
This year, the yuan is trading stronger against the greenback, while foreign institutional allocation to Chinese stocks has fallen to multi-year lows.
The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,336.5 on Monday, before mainland exchanges closed for a week-long holiday commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Trading is set to resume on Oct. 8.
In the runup to the 2015 market rally, Chinese state media had encouraged stock market investment, while loose rules allowed people to buy stocks with borrowed funds. Beijing has long sought to build up its domestic stock market, which at roughly 30 years old is far younger than that of the U.S.
Strong policy signals
The latest market gains follow announcements in the last week of economic support and programs to encourage institutions to put more money into stocks. The news helped stocks rebound from roughly their lowest levels of the year. The CSI 300 rallied by nearly 16% in its best week since 2008.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday led a high-level meeting that called for halting the real estate market’s decline as well as strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China last week also cut interest rates and the amount existing mortgage holders need to pay.
“The policy is much stronger and [more] concerted this time than 2015. That said, the economy faces greater headwind[s] right now compared to back then,” said Zhu Ning, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”
One week of massive stock gains do not mean the economy is on its way to a similar recovery.
The CSI 300 remains more than…
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