Trump trade policies will fuel freight rates and consumers pay price

Trade analysts are warning that new tariffs threatened by former President Donald Trump, which he doubled down on during Tuesday night’s presidential debate, will create inflationary pressures in the supply chain and ripple through the broader economy.

Trump defended his trade policy during the debate, dismissing concerns that blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China will lead to higher consumer prices.

Judah Levine, head of research for Freightos, says if history is any guide, additional tariffs will fuel ocean freight rates. During the first Trump administration, as importers rushed to move goods into the country before tariffs went into effect, ocean container rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast started rising sharply in July 2018, and doubled by mid-November, according to Freightos data.

Levine said the Biden administration’s announcement this past May of planned tariff increases on certain Chinese goods, slated to go into effect August 1, also contributed to frontloading of products. The Biden tariff increases were postponed at the last minute by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative for an extended review period.

That tariff risk, along with the Red Sea crisis and the potential for a port worker strike in October, contributed to an early and strong peak shipping season this year, Levine said, with rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast nearly tripling from May to mid-July — to as high as $8,000/forty-foot equivalent container unit.

“If Trump wins the election, we are likely to see an immediate increase in import volumes as importers will want to fast-track some cargo in anticipation of new tariffs,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime. “Such new tariffs might come late January, hence leaving a very short window to get goods imported prior to tariffs.”

Any increase in freight demand will fuel rates, said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at ocean freight rate intelligence platform Xeneta.

“Shippers react to supply chain threats by rushing to import as many goods as possible as quickly as they can,” said Sand. “Frontloading of imports has contributed to the massive increases in freight rates following the outbreak of conflict in the Red Sea and we will see the same behavior from shippers ahead of any new tariffs coming into force.”

“When ocean container shipping markets increase, that cost gets passed down the line and ultimately it is the end-consumer who pays the price,” Sand added. “It could be through increased cost of goods on the shelves or a limited choice in the products available.”

Xeneta data shows the last time Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports during the trade war in 2018, the ocean container shipping markets spiked more than 70%. The average spot freight rates…