Friday’s jobs report for August is going to be huge. Here’s what to expect

Wall Street is gearing up for one of the most important economic releases of the year Friday, when the Labor Department puts out a jobs report expected to go a long way in determining the future of Federal Reserve policy.

The Wall Street consensus is for nonfarm payrolls growth of 161,000 for August and a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, according to Dow Jones.

However, recent data, including a massive downward revision to previous counts, has pointed to a sharp slowdown in hiring and has put some downside risk to that forecast.

In turn, markets are certain the Fed will start lowering interest rates in a couple weeks, with the possibility of a jumbo cut depending on what Friday’s report shows.

“The labor market has cooled faster than we originally had been told, so that’s what’s calling [Friday’s report] into question,” said Giacomo Santangelo, economist at job search site Monster. “What the Fed is going to do in response, how are they going to adjust rates, that’s why we are having this conversation.”

While job growth has been tailing off through much of 2024, the deceleration hit home for the market with a July report that showed payroll growth of just 114,000. That wasn’t even the lowest number of the year, but it followed a Fed meeting that stirred up sentiment the central bank was being too complacent about a weakening economy and might hold interest rates high for too long.

What has followed has been a series of reports indicating that while the economy is still on its feet, hiring is decelerating, the manufacturing sector is fading further into contraction, and it’s time for the Fed to start cutting before it risks overdoing its inflation fight and dragging the economy into recession.

The latest bad news came Thursday when payrolls processing firm ADP put August private job growth at just 99,000, the smallest gain since January 2021.

“If they’re too aggressive for too long a period of time, without easing on monetary policy, this could lead to the giant ‘R’ and we don’t even want to say the word,” Santangelo said, referring to “recession.” “If God forbid this does lead to an economic downturn, all fingers are going to point toward the Fed.”

Markets consequently are expecting the Fed to lower benchmark rates by at least a quarter percentage point when its next meeting concludes Sept. 18, with the possibility rising of a half-point reduction. The Fed hasn’t reduced its benchmark rate by half a point since the emergency cuts during the early Covid days.

Traders are pricing in a succession of cuts that would shave about 2.25 percentage points off the fed funds rate through 2025, futures contracts show. The benchmark overnight borrowing rate is currently targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.

Such an aggressive easing posture would indicate not merely an effort to normalize rates from their 23-year high but also reflect a deeper economic pullback. In the more…