Here’s everything to expect from Fed Chair Powell’s speech Friday in

For all the attention being paid to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s policy speech Friday, the chances of it containing any startling news seem remote.

After all, the market has its mind made up: The Fed is going to start cutting rates in September — and likely will keep cutting through the end of the year and into 2025.

While there are still some questions about the magnitude and frequency of the reductions, Powell is now left to deliver a brief review of where things have been, and give some limited guidance about what’s ahead.

“Stop me if you’ve heard this before: They’re still data dependent,” said Lou Crandall, a former Fed official and now chief economist at Wrightson-ICAP, a dealer-broker where he has worked for more than 40 years. He expects Powell to be “directionally unambiguous, but specifics about how fast and exactly when will depend on the data between now and the meeting. Little doubt that they will start cutting in September.”

The speech will be delivered at 10 a.m. ET from the Fed’s annual conclave of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The conference is titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy” and runs through Saturday.

If there were any doubts about the Fed’s intentions to enact at least a quarter percentage point cut at the Sept. 17-18 open market committee meeting, they were put to rest Wednesday. Minutes from the July session showed a “vast majority” of members in favor of a September cut, barring any surprises.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker drove the point home even further Thursday when he told CNBC that in “September we need to start a process of moving rates down.”

A main question is whether the first reduction in more than four years is a quarter point or half point, a topic on which Harker would not commit. Markets are betting on a quarter but leaving open about a 1-in-4 chance for a half, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.

A half-point move likely would require a substantial deterioration in economic data between now and then, and specifically another weak nonfarm payrolls report in two weeks.

“Even though I think the Fed’s base case is they’ll move a quarter, and my base case is they’ll move a quarter, I don’t think they’ll feel the need to provide any guidance around that this far out,” Crandall said.

In previous years, Powell has used Jackson Hole speech to outline broad policy initiatives and to provide clues about the future of policy.

At his first appearance, in 2018, he outlined his views on the interest and unemployment rates considered “neutral” or stable. A year later, he indicated rate cuts were coming. In a speech delivered amid racial protests in 2020, Powell unveiled a new approach that would allow inflation to…