What a Kamala Harris victory could mean for Europe

Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to take the stage at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday and deliver what is thought to be the biggest political speech of her career.

The 59-year-old politician is expected to outline her vision and policy agenda to the American people, while many in Europe will also be curious to understand what a Harris presidency could mean for the transatlantic relationship.

Harris, who ascended to the top of the Democrats’ ticket after President Joe Biden brought an end to his campaign last month, is set to go head-to-head in November with Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

If Harris were to win, political analysts told CNBC they expect a broadly similar approach to Biden’s policy platform — albeit with some subtle differences on major international issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

For analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit, the expectation is that a Harris presidency would offer a sense of continuity on matters of foreign affairs.

“That means a gradual decline in military aid for Ukraine, rather than the sharp reduction to force peace talks that we would expect under Donald Trump; a still hawkish stance on China but without Trump’s threat of immediate tariff hikes; and continued efforts to balance support for Israel with de-escalation of the war in Gaza,” EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti told CNBC via email.

“Harris has certainly not criticised Biden on any of these issues, but she is likely to shift the messaging around them, with her emphasis on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza being one example of this,” they added.

Francesco Nicoli, an assistant professor of political science at the Politecnico Institute of Turin in Italy, said the current path of U.S.-EU convergence was likely to continue under a Harris presidency, particularly when it comes to areas such as trade, artificial intelligence, Big Tech and climate policy.

“On Ukraine, we can perhaps expect a Harris-Walz presidency to be bolder than Biden’s,” Nicoli told CNBC via email.

“Without fundamentally [changing] the ‘red lines’ approach that has so far limited US aid to Ukraine, it is likely that the new Democratic ticket will have a somewhat more liberal approach [to] providing Ukraine with the means of pushing and testing such red lines,” he continued. “Walz, in particular, has been a very vocal supporter of Ukraine.”