What you need to know

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is not much about the present but potentially very much about the future.

If things go according to expectations, policymakers again will keep short-term interest rates on hold roughly from where they’ve been the past year.

However, with a raft of cooperating inflation data under their belts in recent months, central bankers are widely expected to lay the groundwork for interest rate cuts to begin in September. Just how aggressive they are in spreading those breadcrumbs is the main question markets will be looking to answer.

“Our expectation is that they’re going to keep rates unchanged,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. “But there’s going to be a lot of focus on the [post-meeting] statement, perhaps teeing up September as whatever the opposite of liftoff is.”

Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. The central bank has kept its benchmark funds rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5% for the past year. The rate indicates what banks charge each other for overnight lending but sets a guidepost for a slew of other consumer debt products.

As for this week’s meeting, which concludes Wednesday, traders are assigning a very small possibility of a cut. However, there are expectations that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will drop signals that as long as there are no major data hiccups, a September move is very much on the table.

Reynolds thinks the committee, along with Chair Jerome Powell at his news conference, will want to keep its options at least somewhat open.

“They’re going to want to strike a balance. They don’t want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there’s literally nothing else that could possibly happen,” he said.

“Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point,” Reynolds added. “But the markets are already pretty excited about that, pricing it in with nearly 100% probability. So the Fed doesn’t have to do too much to change the narrative on that at all. I think if they just directionally tailor the statement, it’ll get the job done.”

Glenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. That is largely in line with market expectations, as measured by the CME’s FedWatch gauge of pricing in 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

There are a few ways the Fed can guide markets on its likely intent without making too much of a commitment. Subtle language changes in the statement can help that along, and Powell could be expected to have some scripted answers ready for the press…