Ford, GM, Stellantis face daunting second half of 2024

DETROIT – The last time shares of Ford Motor dropped by more than 18% in a day, as they did last week, the U.S. automotive industry was on the brink of bankruptcy during the Great Recession.

Ford, which avoided bankruptcy in 2008-2009, is far from any sort of such disaster, but the freefall in shares after the company missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations is the leading example of the uphill battle automakers face for the remainder of the year.

The U.S. market – a profit engine for most automakers – is normalizing after years of record high prices, low vehicle inventories and resilient demand. Inventories, especially for the Detroit automakers, are rising, and vehicle pricing is slowly declining.

Wall Street has been waiting for that set of circumstances for some time, with the cyclical nature of the auto industry ushering in a down period.

“Investors who think autos can outperform on + earnings beats and buybacks should think again. Auto fundamentals may be peaking (see rising incentives and delinquencies). Eventually this can catalyze lower spending and” mergers and acquisitions, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said Friday in an investor note.

Jonas’ comments came after the firm downgraded GM from overweight to equal weight last week, adding “auto remains one of the more challenged industries in the world in terms of competition, excess capacity, cyclical and secular risks.”

The industry challenges add to individual issues for each automaker as well as uncertainty around the adoption of all-electric vehicles, which automakers have invested billions of dollars in and which largely remain unprofitable.

Shares of Ford had their worst week since March 2020, down 20% to close Friday at $11.19. GM was down 8.7% last week to $44.12. Stellantis fell 12.6% last week to $17.66.

For General Motors, investors balked at pullbacks in growth businesses, waning upside during the second half of the year and fear that the automaker’s earnings power has peaked, according to Wall Street analysts.

Selling more EVs is one reason that GM, which has raised its annual financial guidance twice this year, expects the second half to underperform the first. The company projects its adjusted second-half earnings to be between $4.7 billion and $6.7 billion, or $3.82 and $4.82 adjusted per share. That compares with $8.3 billion, or $5.68 adjusted earnings per share, through the first half of the year.

The automaker also forecasts a 1% to 1.5% decline in vehicle pricing as well as $1 billion in additional expenses — including $400 million in additional marketing costs to support vehicle launches. GM is looking to increase production of money-losing EVs, as it aims to make the vehicles profitable on a production, or contribution-margin basis, by the end of…