NATO leaders look to ‘Trump-proof’ the military alliance

As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary with a summit in Washington this week, the alliance is facing some familiar foes and challenges: Russia’s war on Ukraine is ongoing, Moscow’s alliances with China, North Korea and Iran are strong, and the military coalition’s defense spending remains a perennial bugbear among members.

Another familiar, yet unpredictable, challenge lies ahead: the possibility of another U.S. administration led by former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Trump had a tense and combative relationship with the military alliance during his last term in office over 2017-2021, lambasting other member states for not honoring their 2014 commitment to spend 2% of their national GDP on defense spending.

While campaigning to return to office in the forthcoming presidential election, Trump rattled NATO members again in February, when he said he would not provide military protection to any member state that had not met its financial obligations to the bloc and would even “encourage” adversaries “to do whatever they want” to that nation.

The comments provoked outrage in the White House, which at the time described them as “appalling and unhinged.” Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said “any suggestion that we are not there to protect and defend all Allies will undermine the security of all of us and put at risk our soldiers, our personnel who are on the front lines to protect the whole Alliance.”

“One for all, all for one applies for all Allies and is the heart of NATO,” Stoltenberg told reporters in February, referencing NATO’s Article 5 clause that member states must come to each other’s mutual defense.

As the NATO summit takes place in Washington this week, member states are presenting a united front on the 75th anniversary of the defense pact, with leaders keen to emphasize their ongoing support for non-member Ukraine by unveiling new military aid and a pledge to strengthen the country’s beleaguered air defenses.

Leaders are also seen as wanting to “Trump-proof” military aid for Ukraine ahead of his possible re-election, given that the Republican front-runner has been ambivalent on the subject of ongoing aid for Ukraine. While incumbent President Joe Biden’s support for Ukraine is solid — with the president reiterating his commitment to Kyiv’s fight as he addressed delegates Tuesday — his re-election is looking shaky, amid concerns over his fitness for office.

Analysts at Eurasia Group said they expected NATO leaders to take steps to ringfence the coordination of the…