Is inflation Biden’s or Trump’s fault? The answer isn’t so simple

The recent U.S. presidential debate saw both candidates trade barbs related to the economy. High pandemic-era inflation was among the grievances.

“He caused the inflation,” Trump said of Biden during the June 27 debate. “I gave him a country with no, essentially no inflation,” he added.

Biden countered by saying inflation was low during Trump’s term because the economy “was flat on its back.”

“He decimated the economy, absolutely decimated the economy,” Biden said.

But the cause of inflation isn’t so black-and-white, economists say.

In fact, Biden and Trump are not responsible for much of the inflation consumers have experienced in recent years, they said.

Global events beyond Trump’s or Biden’s control wreaked havoc on supply-and-demand dynamics in the U.S. economy, fueling higher prices, economists said.

There were other factors, too.

The Federal Reserve, which acts independently from the Oval Office, was slow to act to contain hot inflation, for example. Some Biden and Trump policies such as pandemic relief packages also likely played a role, as might have so-called “greedflation.”

“I don’t think it’s a simple yes/no kind of answer,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, a left-leaning think tank.

“In general, presidents get more credit and blame for the economy than they deserve,” he said.

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That Biden is seen as stoking high inflation is due somewhat to optics: He took office in early 2021, around the time inflation spiked notably, economists said.

Likewise, the Covid-19 pandemic plunged the U.S. into a severe recession during Trump’s tenure, pulling the consumer price index to near zero in spring 2020 as unemployment ballooned and consumers cut spending.

“In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The blame goes to the pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine.”

Inflation has many tentacles. At a high level, hot inflation is largely an issue of mismatched supply and demand.

The pandemic upended the typical dynamics. For one, it disrupted global supply chains.

There were labor shortages: Illness sidelined workers. Child-care centers closed, making it hard for parents to work. Others were worried about getting sick on the job. A decline in immigration also reduced worker supply, economists said.

China shut down factories and cargo ships couldn’t be unloaded at ports, for example, reducing the supply of goods.

Meanwhile,…