An Israel-Hezbollah war would be devastating to both sides

The near-daily exchanges of fire along Lebanon’s border with northern Israel have intensified at an alarming rate in recent weeks, spurring escalating threats between Israel and Hezbollah and forcing the U.S. to call for an urgent diplomatic solution.

An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah — the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militant and political organization, called a terrorist group by the U.S. and U.K. — would be devastating for both sides.

So stark is the danger of war erupting between Israel and Hezbollah — a far larger and more heavily armed fighting force than Hamas — that U.S. President Joe Biden last week sent one of his top aides, Amos Hochstein, to Israel and Lebanon to push for a solution. 

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that “diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation,” stressing that, “we are urgently seeking a diplomatic agreement that restores lasting calm to Israel’s northern border and enables civilians to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.”

Hezbollah has launched thousands of rockets into Israel in the nearly nine months since the latter began its war against Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza on Oct. 7. The rockets fired from Lebanon have killed 18 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians, Israel says, while Israeli shelling has killed some 300 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and around 80 civilians, according to a Reuters tally.

At least 150,000 residents of southern Lebanon and northern Israel have been evacuated from their homes and are internally displaced due to the regular cross-border fire. 

“A full-fledged war between Israel and Hizbullah would be a disastrous event for the region, including both Israel and Lebanon,” Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, told CNBC. 

The most extreme war scenario? Tricaud describes a large-scale ground invasion and aerial bombing campaign against Lebanon by Israel, heavy bombardment by Hezbollah with regular direct hits on Israeli civilian infrastructure, and potentially even the direct involvement of Iran, which would have major implications for the global economy.

A conflict of this magnitude would see national infrastructure on both sides — like water, electricity and communications — heavily damaged or destroyed, along with homes and military targets.

But for now, this remains a “comparatively distant scenario,” Tricaud said, “with many escalatory steps likely to take place before the confrontation reaches…