U.S. crude prices fell for the fifth straight day Tuesday, but we remain committed to our lone oil-and-gas stock in Coterra Energy . West Texas Intermediate has been moving lower since its early April peak, with Tuesday bringing the U.S. oil benchmark to its lowest settle since Feb. 5, at $73.25 a barrel. Some of the declines may be because the geopolitical risk premium factored into the commodity is fading amid hopes for a cease-fire in the war in Gaza. More recently, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, collectively known as OPEC+, indicated over the weekend that some of its production cuts will begin to be phased out later this year, which Goldman Sachs called a “bearish surprise” for the market. There are also some concerns about a slowing U.S. economy contributing to the decline, given demand for oil is closely tied to economic activity. The drop in oil prices has implications for the economy and stocks overall. While a material slowing of the economy — basically, a hard-landing scenario — certainly would not be a great backdrop for the market, some slowing is exactly what investors want to see. As we’ve become painfully aware over the past few years, energy represents a major, unavoidable input cost for both the average consumer and companies paying for transportation and electricity. Elevated oil prices have, as a result, pressured discretionary spending and corporate margins. For that reason, any relief in energy prices will have the opposite effect — freeing up more money for consumers to spend away from the gas pump. Corporations, meanwhile, can see a boost to profit margins as their costs to make and ship products comes down. Throw in the potential for lower interest rates beginning as soon as later this year, and it all amounts to a pretty positive setup for equities. We’re looking for that sweet spot in economic growth that allows the Fed to cut interest rates while keeping unemployment low. If we get that, then we should see lower oil prices and sustained buying power along with a healthy environment for business investments. That’s goldilocks for the economy and the stock market, aside from the energy sector. CTRA YTD mountain Coterra’s year-to-date stock performance. And yet we still see reason to stick with Coterra Energy. In fact, one of the key reasons we like the company so much — its roughly equal exposure to oil and natural gas — has been on display lately. While oil has been pulling back, natural gas prices have rebounded from their steep sell-off to start the year, climbing about 23% over the past month. Coterra has the ability to shift production resources between oil and nat gas, based on whichever commodity offers the more favorable economics. In the first quarter of this year , that meant more of a focus on oil. Another reason to stick with Coterra: Deal activity has continued in the energy complex, the most recent of which being ConocoPhillips agreeing to buy Marathon Oil…
Read More: What slumping oil prices mean for our stake in Coterra Energy