What problems is France facing as Michel Barnier becomes PM?

French President Emmanuel Macron’s long-awaited appointment last week of Michel Barnier as prime minister marked the end of a period of political uncertainty in France following its inconclusive snap election in July.

France’s challenges are far from over, however, with the country facing acute fiscal challenges and an ongoing threat posed by the far-right National Rally opposition, led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen.

Veteran conservative and former Brexit negotiator Barnier’s first task is to oversee the formation of a draft budget for 2025 in record time, as it must be put to the vote in France’s National Assembly in October.

The euro zone’s second-largest economy must also present a deficit reduction plan to the European Commission within weeks if it is to avoid disciplinary proceedings, as its budget deficit, deemed “excessive” by the EU’s executive arm, continues to break EU rules. France this week asked the Commission to extend its deadline of Sept. 20 to submit debt reduction proposals.

Countries within the EU are obliged to keep their budget deficits within 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) and their public debt within 60% of GDP.  France’s budget deficit stood at 5.5% of GDP in 2023, and public debt topped 110%, meaning France must make steep spending cuts and introduce tax rises if it is to have any chance of bringing down its deficit.

It’s a particularly tough challenge for Barnier, a conservative from the right-leaning Les Republicains party with slim support in France’s fractious parliament.

Barnier’s appointment has already provoked mass protests in France with the New Popular Front, a left-wing coalition made up of four parties, furious that its own candidate for the premiership was rejected by Macron — despite the alliance winning the largest vote share in July’s election.

At best, Barnier can likely count on the support of 47 deputies from his own center-right Les Republicains party, as well as 166 from Macron’s centrist alliance and up to 21 independents (and making a total of 228 deputies, at the most).

But he is highly likely to face strong opposition from the NPF (with 193 seats) and could be at the mercy of the National Rally, with its 142 assembly seats, for support.

Analysts say Barnier’s political survival therefore “depends on the whims and personal-political calculations of Le Pen.”

“At any time, she can add her 142 assembly votes to the 193 held by the left. That would produce many more votes than the 289 needed to…