2027 will be an ‘inflection year’ as R2, autonomy ramp up

It’s been five years since Rivian Automotive celebrated its initial public offering with CEO and founder RJ Scaringe ringing the Nasdaq opening bell from the company’s factory in Normal, Illinois, while the company’s sleek vehicles sat outside the stock exchange in Times Square.

It was a euphoric time for all-electric vehicle companies that has since diminished. And much like the EV hype, Rivian’s stock price is down more than 80% since the Amazon-backed company debuted on the Nasdaq at $78 per share on Nov. 10, 2021. That includes a nearly 30% decline this year.

A host of internal and external factors have contributed to Rivian’s stock decline, but the company continues to be the most promising EV maker to emerge during the early 2020s, as most of its peer group to go public during that time no longer exists.

Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe acknowledges that not everything has gone to plan amid supply chain shortages, geopolitical tensions and slower-than-expected consumer EV adoption, but he said he believes the next year will prove to be a catalyst for the company and investors. 

“2027 is really an inflection year for us,” Scaringe told CNBC during an exclusive interview. “I’m excited to start to really show what we believe so fully, the potential of the business.”

Scaringe said the R2, with an entry-level model at about $45,000, remains the core business to be able to showcase its newest technologies. Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, up 46% year over year, and said R2 was already its best-selling vehicle by volume, outselling both its R1 flagship products and its commercial van.

“That’s going to define the business. The path to profitability, the path to very significant growth in revenue is all built around R2, and then some of the variants that come following R2,” Scaringe said.

For the most recent period, Rivian said the automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle improved by more than $12,000 quarter over quarter, helped by a higher R2 mix and better fixed-cost leverage.

Rivian also is in the midst of building a new multibillion-dollar Georgia factory that Scaringe has said is necessary to get the company to the volumes it needs to achieve net profitability.

Its sole factory in Normal, Illinois, is capable of producing 215,000 vehicles annually. That includes up to 155,000 R2s alongside R1 models and electric vans. Rivian said the Georgia plant will be capable of producing up to 300,000 units annually once the initial phase construction is completed in late 2028.  

Of course, all of that means additional…