These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security
Clockwise, from bottom left, are Josh Turek, a Democratic Iowa state representative, and Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, both U.S. Senate candidates for Iowa; and Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, both U.S. Senate candidates for Maine.
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Senators elected this November must answer a crucial question before their six-year term ends: What will they do to fix Social Security?
The program’s trustees project that the trust fund Social Security relies on to help pay retirement benefits may be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. Without action from Congress before then, those benefits could be cut by 22%.
Lawmakers may enact reforms to prevent those automatic cuts. Or they may kick the can down the road.
Most voters — 81% — say they are more likely to support a candidate who has a plan to avoid automatic benefit cuts to Social Security over a candidate who promises not to touch the program, according to a recent survey of voters in states with competitive Senate races by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization.
Even so, many Senate candidates’ campaign platforms lack specifics on plans for the program’s future.
While 35 Senate seats are up for grabs in November, including in special elections in Florida and Ohio, CNBC identified nine races where the candidates have mentioned their plans for the program’s future. MS NOW says all nine races are closely contested battlegrounds, and it rates the possible outcomes.
Here is a closer look at those nine contests and what the candidates in those races have said about Social Security reform.
ALASKA
U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, are U.S. Senate candidates for Alaska.
Kent Nishimura | Jabin Botsford | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Alaska voters will choose between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who served in the House from 2022 to 2025.
During his latest term, Sullivan voted yes on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which provided a new temporary senior tax deduction of up to $6,000 per eligible individual. Sullivan also voted for the Social Security Fairness Act, which ended reductions to certain government pensioners’ Social Security checks. While both laws helped beneficiaries, they increased the program’s costs.
Most older Alaska voters — 90% — say they are more likely to support a candidate who will ensure they receive the Social Security benefits they’ve earned, according to a September AARP survey.
During the 2014 Alaska Senate campaign, Sullivan said he would consider options to cut Social Security costs, such as raising the retirement age or means-testing benefits — a point his opponent raised during the 2026 race.
Sullivan’s campaign did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment. During an Oct. 15 debate, he said benefits for retirees and near-retirees should be…
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