How much money beneficiaries may lose without reform

Social Security retirement benefits may face an automatic, across-the-board cut in just six years.

Without intervention before then, the Social Security retirement trust fund, formally known as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which helps pay benefits to eligible workers and qualifying family members, will run out in the fourth quarter of 2032, the program’s trustees said in a June report.

At that time, the trustees project retirement benefits will be cut by 22%.

The Congressional Budget Office has a more dire forecast, anticipating the retirement trust fund may run out sooner, in mid-2032, and that retirees may see larger benefit cuts, at 26%, upon insolvency.

Beneficiaries may see an average $500 cut to their monthly benefits across the U.S. based on a 24% benefit cut, according to a June report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. In 29 states, retirees would see even bigger average reductions, according to the nonpartisan organization focused on educating the public on fiscal policy issues.

Senators elected this November will be in office in 2032, when the retirement trust fund depletion date hits. Their ability to right the ship is crucial for retirees and the economy. But it’s not a sure thing given the political climate inside the beltway.

“The attention on 2032 is appropriate in the sense that that is when beneficiaries and future beneficiaries will see and feel the consequences of inaction,” said Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a public policy think tank focused on promoting bipartisan cooperation.

“Nothing gets Congress to move like that type of deadline,” he said.

Of course, brinksmanship and political deadlock may stymie efforts. Congress could opt to kick the can down the road, rather than enact changes to shore up Social Security — which may require tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both.

If lawmakers decide to combine Social Security’s retirement and disability trust funds, the depletion date may move to the third quarter of 2034, when benefits may be cut by 17%, according to Social Security’s trustees.

Akabas said any delay by lawmakers would have consequences: Social Security’s shortfall would continue to increase.

There could also be consequences for the economy, he said.

In 2023, Social Security benefits generated $2.6 trillion in total economic output and supported more than 12 million jobs, according to 2025 research by the National Institute on Retirement Security, a Washington, D.C., based non-profit, non-partisan organization.

A 19% benefit cut could reduce gross domestic product by hundreds of billions of dollars, according to the NIRS research.

Moreover, failing to muster Social Security reform would prompt bond market strain, according to research published in June by George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

Social Security is tied to the bond market…